MLB World Series and League Futures: Astros at the Top

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The percentage difference at the top of the AL is very large at 25.8%. The New York Yankees at 23.6% trail the Houston Astros at 49.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Yankees chances are down from 26.7 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.23 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best AL record. This is a very top heavy league with just 4 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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Houston Astros106.2100.0%100.0%10/11 (52.4%)49.3%
New York Yankees104.9100.0%100.0%7/4 (36.4%)23.6%
Minnesota Twins99.997.8%99.8%9/2 (18.2%)15.9%
Oakland Athletics98.20.0%98.9%15/1 (6.2%)5.8%
Tampa Bay Rays94.50.0%65.5%20/1 (4.8%)3.5%
Cleveland Indians94.32.2%35.8%30/1 (3.2%)1.9%
Boston Red Sox86.70.0%0.0%50/1 (2%)--
Texas Rangers78.50.0%0.0%----
Chicago White Sox71.60.0%0.0%----
Los Angeles Angels71.00.0%0.0%----
Seattle Mariners67.10.0%0.0%----
Toronto Blue Jays65.20.0%0.0%----
Kansas City Royals58.80.0%0.0%----
Baltimore Orioles53.80.0%0.0%----
Detroit Tigers48.40.0%0.0%----

There is a very large 27.4% gap between the Dodgers and the Braves. The Atlanta Braves at 19.2% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 46.5%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Braves chances are down from 20.1 percent. As far as teams fighting for the final playoff spots go, there is a very small difference in projected wins between the teams with the #4 best record and the team with the #6 best record. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

Los Angeles Dodgers104.5100.0%100.0%4/7 (63.6%)46.5%
Atlanta Braves99.4100.0%100.0%7/2 (22.2%)19.2%
St Louis Cardinals89.760.7%87.2%7/1 (12.5%)13.1%
Chicago Cubs88.126.8%56.4%15/1 (6.2%)8.9%
Washington Nationals89.90.0%89.4%9/1 (10%)8.0%
Milwaukee Brewers87.910.5%60.8%40/1 (2.4%)3.9%
New York Mets84.80.0%2.9%100/1 (1%)0.3%
Philadelphia Phillies82.90.0%1.0%100/1 (1%)0.1%
Arizona Diamondbacks83.00.0%0.4%25/1 (3.8%)--
San Francisco Giants77.00.0%0.0%10000/1--
Cincinnati Reds75.60.0%0.0%----
San Diego Padres73.00.0%0.0%25000/1--
Pittsburgh Pirates70.20.0%0.0%----
Colorado Rockies68.90.0%0.0%----
Miami Marlins56.00.0%0.0%----

There may be 10 playoff teams but there are only 9 true World Series contenders (at least a 2% chance). At the top, the Astros have a 5 percentage point lead over the Dodgers. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 1.3 percentage points.

Houston Astros5/228.6%31.5%UP
Los Angeles Dodgers5/228.6%26.4%--
New York Yankees7/222.2%11.5%--
Atlanta Braves9/110.0%7.3%UP
Minnesota Twins9/110.0%6.4%--
St Louis Cardinals16/15.9%4.6%DOWN
Chicago Cubs30/13.2%3.5%DOWN
Washington Nationals20/14.8%2.7%DOWN
Oakland Athletics40/12.4%2.2%--
Milwaukee Brewers80/11.2%1.6%DOWN
Tampa Bay Rays30/13.2%1.4%DOWN