MLB World Series and League Futures: Bad News for the Yankees

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There is a huge 14.1% gap between the Astros and the Yankees. The Houston Astros lead with a 31.8 percent chance of winning the AL and the New York Yankees are at 17.7%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Yankees chances are down from 32.4 percent. A difference of 4.03 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros100.880.0%93.1%11/4 (26.7%)31.8%
New York Yankees94.131.5%68.0%11/4 (26.7%)17.7%
Tampa Bay Rays95.546.3%78.7%12/1 (7.7%)16.2%
Boston Red Sox92.122.2%56.5%4/1 (20%)12.6%
Cleveland Indians89.360.4%64.9%11/2 (15.4%)7.8%
Minnesota Twins85.236.6%42.7%10/1 (9.1%)4.6%
Oakland Athletics88.79.4%40.3%20/1 (4.8%)4.5%
Seattle Mariners87.78.4%39.3%10/1 (9.1%)3.4%
Los Angeles Angels82.12.0%12.3%50/1 (2%)1.0%
Kansas City Royals72.92.2%2.5%500/1 (0.2%)0.2%
Texas Rangers71.80.1%0.8%250/1 (0.4%)--
Chicago White Sox67.50.6%0.7%50/1 (2%)--
Detroit Tigers61.80.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--
Toronto Blue Jays64.00.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Baltimore Orioles59.30.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is huge at 18.6%. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 35.4 percent chance of winning the NL and the Washington Nationals are at 16.9%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Nationals chances are down from 18.1 percent. While 2.1 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the NL.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers99.994.3%96.9%5/2 (28.6%)35.4%
Washington Nationals93.747.9%74.4%8/1 (11.1%)16.9%
Milwaukee Brewers90.941.8%65.4%6/1 (14.3%)14.6%
St Louis Cardinals90.838.1%63.8%7/1 (12.5%)8.5%
Philadelphia Phillies88.923.4%52.3%6/1 (14.3%)8.0%
Chicago Cubs86.816.2%36.2%9/1 (10%)6.7%
Atlanta Braves87.617.5%45.2%10/1 (9.1%)4.3%
New York Mets85.311.0%32.5%10/1 (9.1%)3.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks82.75.0%19.8%50/1 (2%)1.6%
Pittsburgh Pirates79.23.7%10.4%50/1 (2%)0.6%
San Diego Padres72.00.4%1.6%20/1 (4.8%)--
Colorado Rockies70.70.2%0.7%20/1 (4.8%)--
San Francisco Giants68.70.1%0.3%50/1 (2%)--
Cincinnati Reds63.70.1%0.1%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins56.50.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

At this point, the number of contenders exceeds the number of playoff teams. There are 11 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At #2, the Astros have a 17 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 3 percentage points behind the Dodgers. The separation between the team with the #9 highest chances vs the #11 highest is 1.7 percentage points.

WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers5/116.7%20.6%DOWN
Houston Astros6/114.3%17.3%--
New York Yankees6/114.3%9.6%DOWN
Washington Nationals16/15.9%9.0%--
Milwaukee Brewers12/17.7%7.8%UP
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%6.7%--
Boston Red Sox8/111.1%6.0%DOWN
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%4.2%UP
Philadelphia Phillies12/17.7%4.1%DOWN
Chicago Cubs18/15.3%3.5%DOWN
Cleveland Indians12/17.7%2.4%DOWN
Oakland Athletics40/12.4%2.0%DOWN
Atlanta Braves20/14.8%1.7%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%1.4%UP
Seattle Mariners20/14.8%1.3%DOWN
New York Mets20/14.8%1.2%DOWN