MLB World Series and League Futures: Cardinals In Top 10

There is a huge 12.9% gap between the Astros and the Rays. The Houston Astros lead with a 29.3 percent chance of winning the AL and the Tampa Bay Rays are at 16.4%. The difference between these teams seems to be shrinking. The Astros chances are down from 32.7 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Indians average the #5 most wins and the Athletics average the #6 so the difference (-0.49 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be very small. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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Houston Astros101.078.2%92.3%11/4 (26.7%)29.3%
Tampa Bay Rays94.635.7%71.4%12/1 (7.7%)16.4%
New York Yankees95.737.6%72.6%11/4 (26.7%)16.2%
Boston Red Sox93.926.7%61.5%4/1 (20%)12.3%
Cleveland Indians89.163.3%66.4%11/2 (15.4%)10.4%
Oakland Athletics89.510.1%42.1%20/1 (4.8%)6.1%
Seattle Mariners88.69.5%40.2%10/1 (9.1%)5.1%
Minnesota Twins84.833.8%38.0%10/1 (9.1%)3.2%
Los Angeles Angels82.82.1%12.1%50/1 (2%)0.7%
Kansas City Royals72.12.2%2.4%500/1 (0.2%)0.2%
Chicago White Sox66.40.4%0.4%50/1 (2%)--
Texas Rangers69.60.1%0.2%250/1 (0.4%)--
Detroit Tigers62.50.2%0.2%100/1 (1%)--
Toronto Blue Jays62.90.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Baltimore Orioles59.50.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 19.1%. The Washington Nationals at 18% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 37.1%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Dodgers chances are down from 44.3 percent. Expect the playoff race to be tight. In simulations, the Phillies average the #4 most wins and the Cubs average the #6 most so the difference (1.35 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

Los Angeles Dodgers98.192.2%95.1%5/2 (28.6%)37.1%
Washington Nationals95.657.0%82.5%8/1 (11.1%)18.0%
Milwaukee Brewers91.849.6%70.1%6/1 (14.3%)14.4%
Philadelphia Phillies88.618.0%50.4%6/1 (14.3%)7.7%
St Louis Cardinals88.828.0%52.0%7/1 (12.5%)7.4%
Chicago Cubs87.219.5%39.9%9/1 (10%)6.9%
New York Mets85.910.3%35.4%10/1 (9.1%)3.3%
Atlanta Braves87.414.6%42.8%10/1 (9.1%)3.0%
Arizona Diamondbacks82.76.8%20.1%50/1 (2%)1.3%
Pittsburgh Pirates77.92.9%7.9%50/1 (2%)0.6%
San Diego Padres72.90.7%2.4%20/1 (4.8%)0.1%
San Francisco Giants70.00.3%0.8%50/1 (2%)--
Colorado Rockies68.70.1%0.3%20/1 (4.8%)--
Cincinnati Reds64.20.1%0.1%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins57.10.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There are a lot of fanbases who should think that they have a shot at winning the World Series. There are 12 teams winning the World Series in at least two percent of simulations. At the top, the Dodgers have a 7 percentage point lead over the Astros. The separation between the team with the #10 highest chances vs the #12 highest is 0.7 percentage points.

Los Angeles Dodgers5/116.7%22.6%DOWN
Houston Astros6/114.3%15.1%DOWN
Washington Nationals16/15.9%9.7%UP
New York Yankees6/114.3%8.8%DOWN
Milwaukee Brewers12/17.7%7.5%UP
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%7.1%UP
Boston Red Sox8/111.1%6.1%DOWN
Philadelphia Phillies12/17.7%4.0%DOWN
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%3.8%--
Cleveland Indians12/17.7%3.4%DOWN
Chicago Cubs18/15.3%3.2%DOWN
Oakland Athletics40/12.4%2.6%UP
Seattle Mariners20/14.8%1.9%DOWN
New York Mets20/14.8%1.4%DOWN
Atlanta Braves20/14.8%1.1%DOWN