MLB World Series and League Futures: Dodgers Chances are Rising

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There is a huge 13.2% gap between AL leaders. The Houston Astros lead with a 34.6 percent chance of winning the AL and the Tampa Bay Rays are at 21.4%. The gap seems to be widening. The Rays chances are down from 25.4 percent. A difference of 5.43 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. There is not a lot of parity and power is concentrated at the top of the AL with just 5 teams having at least a 4% chance of winning it.

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Houston Astros107.399.7%99.9%9/4 (30.8%)34.6%
Tampa Bay Rays99.559.4%95.5%7/1 (12.5%)21.4%
New York Yankees93.721.2%81.5%3/1 (25%)16.5%
Boston Red Sox94.219.4%81.1%7/2 (22.2%)15.2%
Minnesota Twins93.073.0%81.6%6/1 (14.3%)9.6%
Cleveland Indians87.626.8%45.1%7/1 (12.5%)2.0%
Oakland Athletics79.60.1%4.7%50/1 (2%)0.4%
Seattle Mariners79.20.1%4.8%100/1 (1%)0.2%
Los Angeles Angels79.00.1%4.6%30/1 (3.2%)--
Kansas City Royals71.40.2%0.4%1000/1 (0.1%)--
Toronto Blue Jays67.70.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Texas Rangers72.30.1%0.6%250/1 (0.4%)--
Chicago White Sox63.40.1%0.1%100/1 (1%)--
Detroit Tigers60.00.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Baltimore Orioles55.80.1%0.1%2500/1--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is very large at 17.9%. The Chicago Cubs at 20.6% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 38.4%. The gap seems to be widening. The Cubs chances are down from 28.4 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 0.37 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best NL record. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers100.392.8%98.2%2/1 (33.3%)38.4%
Chicago Cubs94.963.6%88.4%5/1 (16.7%)20.6%
Philadelphia Phillies89.760.0%70.0%7/1 (12.5%)14.1%
Milwaukee Brewers90.025.4%67.8%7/1 (12.5%)10.2%
Arizona Diamondbacks86.15.5%40.7%15/1 (6.2%)4.9%
St Louis Cardinals85.79.4%38.5%8/1 (11.1%)3.8%
Washington Nationals83.313.3%21.8%15/1 (6.2%)2.3%
Atlanta Braves80.38.0%14.0%12/1 (7.7%)2.2%
New York Mets83.918.6%29.7%15/1 (6.2%)1.8%
Colorado Rockies80.11.0%11.6%30/1 (3.2%)0.7%
Pittsburgh Pirates78.11.2%7.4%30/1 (3.2%)0.4%
San Diego Padres78.80.6%8.5%20/1 (4.8%)0.4%
Cincinnati Reds75.70.3%3.0%100/1 (1%)--
San Francisco Giants64.40.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Miami Marlins55.00.1%0.1%2500/1--

There may be 10 playoff teams but there are only 9 true World Series contenders (at least a 2% chance). At #2, the Astros have a 19 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 5 percentage points behind the Dodgers. The separation between the team with the #7 highest chances vs the #9 highest is 3.5 percentage points.

WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Los Angeles Dodgers5/116.7%23.7%UP
Houston Astros5/116.7%19.1%--
Tampa Bay Rays14/16.7%9.9%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%9.9%DOWN
New York Yankees6/114.3%7.8%DOWN
Boston Red Sox7/112.5%7.7%--
Philadelphia Phillies14/16.7%6.6%UP
Milwaukee Brewers14/16.7%5.0%DOWN
Minnesota Twins12/17.7%3.2%--
Arizona Diamondbacks30/13.2%1.9%DOWN
St Louis Cardinals16/15.9%1.6%DOWN
Washington Nationals30/13.2%1.0%DOWN