Murphy is the #32 Most Expensive 1B on DraftKings and is Projected to Be...

DAILY FANTASY VALUE

There are 2 other options at $4000 (Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Canha) and Murphy is the best option of these 3. Instead of Murphy consider these better options at lower salaries: Joey Votto (8.3 FP), Jesus Aguilar (8.4 FP), Renato Nunez (8.1 FP), and Yulieski Gurriel (8.4 FP). Howie Kendrick (5.7 FP), Neil Walker (5.4 FP), Jay Bruce (6.6 FP), Matt Adams (7.2 FP), and C.J. Cron (5.1 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Murphy but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.1 FPs, a value reached in 54 of 145 games (37%). The combined 'cover percentage' for first basemen expected to start is 36%.

  • 6/26 VEGAS LINE EXPECTATION: COL 4 (#25 Most Today) vs SF 3.5 (#29 Most)
  • PROJECTION (POS RANK): 8.06 Fantasy Points (#15), 3.98 plate appearances (#13), 0.315 BA (#3), 0.879 OPS (#20), 0.18 HR (#19), 0.61 RBI (#14), 0.48 runs (#26), 0.03 stolen bases (#7),
Lower SalaryD. MurphyHigher Salary
J. Votto (8 FP)8 FPH. Kendrick (6 FP)
J. Aguilar (8 FP)#32 First BaseN. Walker (5 FP)
R. Nunez (8 FP) 
J. Bruce (7 FP)
Y. Gurriel (8 FP) 
M. Adams (7 FP)
 
 
C. Cron (5 FP)

FANDUEL VALUE: Based on a projected 10.4 FanDuel points, Murphy is fairly ranked. He is the #17 highest priced C/1Bs ($3100). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.6K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). There are 4 other options at $3100 (Joc Pederson, Jose Abreu, Michael Chavis, Mitch Garver) and Murphy is ranked #2 among the 5. Instead of Murphy consider these better options at lower salaries: Joey Votto (11 FP), Eric Hosmer (12.4 FP), Jesus Aguilar (11.6 FP), and Jacob Realmuto (11 FP). Paul Goldschmidt (9.2 FP), Yasmani Grandal (8.8 FP), C.J. Cron (6.7 FP), Matt Olson (10.2 FP), and Garrett Cooper (6.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Murphy but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 8.9 FPs, a value reached in 64 of 145 games (44%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 45%.

Murphy is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

His market rank based on start percentage among second basemen for the rest of week 14 is #12, which is less than his market rank of #9. In week 15 rankings vs other second basemen these are 5 better options at lower start percentages: Jonathan Villar (14.2 FP), Ian Kinsler (13.2 FP), Asdrubal Cabrera (19.5 FP), Gordon Beckham (14.8 FP), and Starlin Castro (13.1 FP). Starting in 73% of leagues he is expected to produce 15.8 fantasy points (WK 15). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #9 second baseman of the week, but he is projected to be the #27 second baseman. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 3.3 short of expectations. In addition to a below average projected FP average, he also is expected to play just 4.160375 games.

He is projected for 12.5 fantasy points in week 15 (#27 2B) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
12.47 (#27) 
Avg0.291 (#8) 
 
OPS0.756 (#8) 
 
Home Runs 
0.64 (#20) 
Runs 
2.27 (#31) 
RBI2.68 (#12) 
 
Stolen Bases 
 
0.12 (#41)

  • Based on 6/26 start percentages, Daniel Murphy is valued behind Moncada and above McNeil and the projections agree for this week.
  • Jul 2Jul 3Jul 5Jul 6Jul 7
    2.1 FP vs HOU2.6 FP vs HOU2.3 FP @ARI2.2 FP @ARI3.2 FP @ARI

    Daniel Murphy last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    6/24 @SF0 FP, 3 FD, 3 DK1-4
    6/23 @LAD4 FP, 12 FD, 11 DK3-4, 1 R
    6/22 @LAD0 FP, 4 FD, 2 DK0-5, 1 RBI
    6/21 @LAD0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-3
    6/20 @ARI0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2

    Make sure to visit Sportsline to for DFS and betting advice. We have picks on every game and line.

    REST OF SEASON VALUE

    His latest projection based rank among second basemen is #11. Based on ownership percentage (93%), Daniel Murphy has a market rank of #9 among second basemen. Daniel Murphy's market rank is slightly better than our current projections indicate. He is projected for 205 fantasy points in 69 remaining games. His projected average FP rank is the same as his rest of season total rank. The market ranks Daniel Murphy behind Moncada and above Senzel and the projections agree.

    Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
    Fantasy Points 
    205 (#11) 
    Avg 
    0.292 (#8) 
    OPS 
    0.824 (#11) 
    Home Runs 
    11 (#11) 
    Runs 
     
    36 (#20)
    RBI 
    43 (#7) 
    Stolen Bases 
     
    2 (#37)
    Strikeouts 
     
    46 (#25)

    He has more relative weaknesses than strengths which hurts his value in leagues that score based on production in individual categories.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    He has averaged 13.2 fantasy points per week and had 4 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 3 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL13.2 FP per Week43
    Week 12 (2 games 1 per game)-11.2
    Week 523.5 (4 games 5.9 per game)+10.3
    Week 610 (6 games 1.7 per game)
    Week 713 (5 games 2.6 per game)
    Week 8-1 (5 games -0.2 per game)-14.2
    Week 923 (6 games 3.8 per game)+9.8
    Week 1023 (7 games 3.3 per game)+9.8
    Week 1114.5 (5 games 2.9 per game)
    Week 1222.5 (6 games 3.8 per game)+9.3
    Week 1314 (6 games 2.3 per game)
    Week 140.5 (1 games)-12.7

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 9.9 FD points and 7.2 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 17 and on FanDuel it was 21.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All9.9 ($3.4K)14 G, 18 B7.2 ($4.5K)13 G, 18 B
    6/24 @SF3 ($3.1K)-6.93 ($4.2K)-4.2
    6/23 @LAD12.2 ($3.1K)--11+3.8
    6/22 @LAD3.5 ($3.1K)-6.42 ($3.8K)-5.2
    6/21 @LAD0 ($3.2K)-9.90 ($4.1K)-7.2
    6/20 @ARI0 ($3.3K)-9.90 ($4.2K)-7.2
    6/19 @ARI28.4 ($3.3K)+18.521 ($4.4K)+13.8
    6/18 @ARI6.2 ($3.4K)--4 ($4.4K)--
    6/16 SD12.4 ($3.9K)--10--
    6/15 SD0--0--
    6/14 SD13 ($4K)--9 ($5.4K)--
    6/13 SD18.7--15--
    6/11 CHC19 ($4K)+9.115 ($4.9K)+7.8
    6/10 CHC18.2 ($4K)+8.313 ($5K)+5.8
    6/9 @NYM0 ($3.7K)-9.90 ($4.4K)-7.2
    6/8 @NYM0 ($3.5K)-9.90 ($4.5K)-7.2
    6/7 @NYM21.7 ($3.6K)+11.817 ($4.6K)+9.8
    6/5 @CHC9.5 ($3.5K)--8 ($4.3K)--
    6/4 @CHC25.2 ($3.4K)+15.319 ($4.1K)+11.8
    6/2 TOR9.5 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.9K)--
    6/1 TOR13 ($3.9K)--9 ($4.8K)--
    5/31 TOR13 ($3.9K)--9 ($4.8K)--
    5/30 ARI25.7 ($3.7K)+15.819 ($4.4K)+11.8
    5/29 ARI0 ($3.6K)-9.90 ($4.1K)-7.2
    5/28 ARI12.5 ($3.6K)--9 ($4.5K)--
    5/27 ARI6--5--
    5/26 BAL9 ($3.8K)--8 ($4.9K)--
    5/25 BAL0 ($3.7K)-9.90 ($4.8K)-7.2
    5/24 BAL15 ($3.5K)+5.113 ($4.8K)+5.8
    5/23 @PIT10 ($2.7K)--7 ($4K)--
    5/22 @PIT28.7 ($2.6K)+18.821 ($4.3K)+13.8
    5/21 @PIT9.2 ($2.6K)--7 ($4.1K)--
    5/19 @PHI0 ($2.7K)-9.90 ($4.2K)-7.2
    5/18 @PHI3 ($2.8K)-6.92 ($4.2K)-5.2
    5/17 @PHI0 ($2.9K)-9.90 ($4.5K)-7.2
    5/15 @BOS3.5 ($3K)-6.42 ($4.3K)-5.2
    5/14 @BOS0 ($3.1K)-9.90 ($4.2K)-7.2
    5/12 SD19.7 ($3.8K)+9.813+5.8
    5/11 SD0 ($3.8K)-9.90 ($4.6K)-7.2
    5/10 SD19.7 ($3.9K)+9.813 ($4.7K)+5.8
    5/9 SF6.5 ($4.1K)--5 ($5K)--
    5/7 SF0 ($4.3K)-9.90 ($4.7K)-7.2
    5/5 ARI6.7 ($4.3K)--4--
    5/4 ARI0 ($4.3K)-9.90 ($5K)-7.2
    5/3 ARI3--2--
    5/1 @MIL3 ($3.7K)-6.93 ($4.8K)-4.2
    4/30 @MIL15.2 ($3.5K)+5.311 ($4.8K)+3.8
    4/29 @MIL9.2 ($3K)--6 ($4.7K)--
    4/28 @ATL25.7 ($2.8K)+15.818 ($4.4K)+10.8
    4/27 @ATL18.7 ($2.8K)+8.814 ($4.3K)+6.8
    4/26 @ATL21.7 ($2.5K)+11.817 ($4.3K)+9.8
    4/24 WAS9.2 ($3K)--7 ($4K)--
    3/29 @MIA6.2 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.6K)--
    3/28 @MIA0 ($3.3K)-9.90 ($4.9K)-7.2