Must DFS Play (Story) and Fade (Vogelbach) Advice

Trevor Story

Projected for 13.4 FanDuel pts Trevor Story is the #1 ranked shortstop. At $3500 he is expected to be the #12 shortstop. Based on the projection, Story is worth $5K. Amed Rosario is also priced at $3500, and Story is a better option at this price. Elvis Andrus (9.8 FP), Javier Baez (12.9 FP), Xander Bogaerts (11.6 FP), Jorge Polanco (10.3 FP), and Tim Beckham (7.4 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Story but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 9.5 FPs, a value reached in 83 of 176 games (47%). The combined 'cover percentage' for shortstops expected to start is 40%.

There are 3 other options at $4200 (Elvis Andrus, Freddy Galvis, Jorge Polanco) and Story is the best option of these 4. He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Javier Baez (9.8 FP), Adalberto Mondesi (9.8 FP), Tim Anderson (7.8 FP), and Paul DeJong (8.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.6 FPs, a value reached in 87 of 176 games (49%). The combined 'cover percentage' for shortstops expected to start is 40%.

Ryan O'Hearn and Teoscar Hernandez are also good values on both FanDuel and DraftKings on 4/15.

Daniel Vogelbach

Vogelbach is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 4.2 FD pts (#57 among outfielders). He is the #3 highest priced C/1Bs ($4200). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $1.6K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Instead of Vogelbach consider these better options at lower salaries: Albert Pujols (8.6 FP), Yadier Molina (8.6 FP), Edwin Encarnacion (9 FP), Hanley Ramirez (10.8 FP), and Neil Walker (7.1 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 11.2 FPs, a value reached in 13 of 49 games (27%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

Projected for 3.1 DraftKings pts Daniel Vogelbach is the #34 ranked first basemen. At $4300 he is expected to be the #6 first basemen. Based on the projection, Vogelbach is worth $1.7K. There are 3 other options at $4300 (Paul Goldschmidt, Jose Abreu, Ryan McMahon) and Vogelbach is ranked #3 among the 4. Instead of Vogelbach consider these better options at lower salaries: Albert Pujols (6.5 FP), Edwin Encarnacion (6.7 FP), Hanley Ramirez (8.2 FP), Neil Walker (5.4 FP), and Joey Votto (7.8 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 7.9 FPs, a value reached in 13 of 49 games (27%). The combined 'cover percentage' for first basemen expected to start is 37%.

Mitch Garver and Pete Alonso are also bad values on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

This information was last updated at 4/15/2019 7:34:17 AM. SportsLine has a Daily Fantasy Cheat Sheet and Optimal Lineups based on the latest computer projections. It also features lineups from DFS Millionaire, Mike McClure, visit SportsLine for more.

TODAY'S GAMES (AVG O/U 8.8) AND PROJECTED FANTASY LEADERS

BALTIMORE ORIOLES VS BOSTON RED SOX O/U 11.5 (o-106, u-115)

  • Hector Velazquez (SP) 22.6 FD $5.5K
  • Dan Straily (SP) 22.1 FD $5.5K
  • Mookie Betts (OF) 13.5 FD $4.6K
  • J.D. Martinez (OF) 12.9 FD $4.5K
  • Andrew Benintendi (OF) 11.7 FD $4.1K

LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS TEXAS RANGERS O/U TBD (Sim Projects: 10.6)

  • Trevor Cahill (SP) 27.1 FD $7.7K, 13.6 DK $7.1K
  • Mike Trout (OF) 17.5 FD $5K, 12.9 DK $5.6K
  • Shelby Miller (SP) 17.8 FD $6.2K, 8.1 DK $6.5K
  • Joey Gallo (OF) 11.7 FD $4.1K, 8.4 DK $4.9K
  • Kole Calhoun (OF) 11 FD $2.5K, 8.1 DK $3.8K

ST LOUIS CARDINALS VS MILWAUKEE BREWERS O/U 9.5 (o-104, u-118)

  • Freddy Peralta (SP) 30.4 FD $7.8K, 16.8 DK $8.8K
  • Dakota Hudson (SP) 27.2 FD $6.6K, 14 DK $6.2K
  • Christian Yelich (OF) 13.6 FD $4.8K, 10.3 DK $5.4K
  • Paul Goldschmidt (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 11.8 FD $3.8K, 8.9 DK $4.3K
  • Matt Carpenter (3B) 11.4 FD $3.4K, 8.5 DK $3.8K

KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS CHICAGO WHITE SOX O/U 9.5 (o100, u-120)

  • Ervin Santana (SP) 26.4 FD $5.6K, 13.8 DK $5.3K
  • Heath Fillmyer (SP) 26.2 FD $5.8K, 13.4 DK $5K
  • Adalberto Mondesi (SS) 12.9 FD $4.3K, 9.8 DK $5.1K
  • Whit Merrifield (OF FD, 2B DK) 12.1 FD $4.3K, 9.2 DK $4.6K
  • Yoan Moncada (3B) 11.9 FD $3.7K, 8.9 DK $4.8K

TORONTO BLUE JAYS VS MINNESOTA TWINS O/U 8.5 (o-114, u-106)

  • Matt Shoemaker (SP) 28.8 FD $8.3K, 15.5 DK $8K
  • Martin Perez (SP) 26.4 FD $6.4K, 13.2 DK $6.4K
  • Nelson Cruz (OF) 12.4 FD $3.9K, 9.2 DK $4.4K
  • Teoscar Hernandez (OF) 11.3 FD $2.5K, 8.6 DK $3.9K
  • Randal Grichuk (OF) 10.4 FD $2.6K, 7.9 DK $4.3K

COLORADO ROCKIES VS SAN DIEGO PADRES O/U TBD (Sim Projects: 8.5)

  • Antonio Senzatela (SP) 28.4 FD $5.7K, 15.3 DK $7.4K
  • Joey Lucchesi (SP) 27.2 FD $8.2K, 14.9 DK $9K
  • Nolan Arenado (3B) 14.5 FD $3.7K, 10.9 DK $4.5K
  • Trevor Story (SS) 13.4 FD $3.5K, 10.1 DK $4.2K
  • Manny Machado (3B) 11.2 FD $4.2K, 8.5 DK $4.3K

CHICAGO CUBS VS MIAMI MARLINS O/U 8 (o-125, u105)

  • Yu Darvish (SP) 31.2 FD $7.1K, 17.5 DK $7.8K
  • Trevor Richards (SP) 28.7 FD $7.3K, 14.8 DK $8.2K
  • Javier Baez (SS) 12.9 FD $4.2K, 9.8 DK $4.9K
  • Kris Bryant (3B) 12 FD $4K, 9 DK $4K
  • Daniel Descalso (2B) 11.2 FD $3.3K, 8.3 DK $3.8K

NEW YORK METS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES O/U 7.5 (o-106, u-115)

  • Aaron Nola (SP) 38.4 FD $9.3K, 21 DK $9.6K
  • Noah Syndergaard (SP) 32.8 FD $9.9K, 18 DK $10K
  • Bryce Harper (OF) 13 FD $4.2K, 9.6 DK $5K
  • Rhys Hoskins (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 12.4 FD $4.5K, 9 DK $4.8K
  • Michael Conforto (OF) 11 FD $4.4K, 8.2 DK $4.5K

CLEVELAND INDIANS VS SEATTLE MARINERS O/U 7.5 (o105, u-125)

  • Trevor Bauer (SP) 39.5 FD $11.2K, 21.8 DK $10.4K
  • Yusei Kikuchi (SP) 28 FD $7.7K, 14.9 DK $7.7K
  • Jose Ramirez (3B) 11.6 FD $3.1K, 8.7 DK $3.9K
  • Carlos Santana (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 11.3 FD $4.1K, 8.5 DK $4K
  • Hanley Ramirez (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 10.8 FD $2.5K, 8.2 DK $3.6K

CINCINNATI REDS VS LOS ANGELES DODGERS O/U 7 (o-124, u102)

  • Clayton Kershaw (SP) 36.2 FD $10.8K, 19.7 DK $9.8K
  • Luis Castillo (SP) 31.1 FD $8.8K, 17 DK $9.5K
  • Cody Bellinger (OF FD, 1B DK) 13.1 FD $5.1K, 9.9 DK $5.2K
  • Max Muncy (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 11 FD $3.9K, 8.1 DK $4.2K
  • Joey Votto (C/1B FD, 1B DK) 10.1 FD $3.3K, 7.8 DK $4K