Nelson Cruz is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#6 1B/DH)

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD

Nelson Cruz is projected to be an elite fantasy first baseman and worth a high draft pick. In our latest projection he is the #6 first baseman based on total projected fantasy points. In 2018, he was owned in 98 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 3.43 fantasy points per game in 138 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is up slightly from where he finished last season.

1B/DH RankPlayerProj FPProj Stats
#4Khris Davis501.20.249 AVG, 45 HR, 120 RBI, 94 R, 60 BB
#5Freddie Freeman473.20.288 AVG, 25 HR, 94 RBI, 86 R, 69 BB, 8 SB
#6Nelson Cruz473.10.260 AVG, 40 HR, 116 RBI, 82 R, 52 BB
#7Matt Carpenter471.50.255 AVG, 32 HR, 75 RBI, 98 R, 95 BB, 3 SB
#8Jose Abreu4580.288 AVG, 27 HR, 93 RBI, 83 R, 39 BB, 3 SB

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SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Nelson Cruz was the #40 ranked fantasy player this season and the #10 1B. His elite ranking drops slightly if you base things on average fantasy points where he is the #11 1B. He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 49 games he averaged 3.9 fantasy points which was higher than his start (2.8 FP) and his ending average (2.4 FP). A late season drop-off might be expected given his age. His fantasy production is stable and he is not as volatile as most players based on a below average standard deviation. Our projected ceiling for Cruz when he 'goes off' is 19 fantasy points (his average is 3.1FPs).

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CURRENT CAREER TREND AND STATISTICS

The table below shows his relatively steady fantasy production over the past 2 seasons, which is fairly impressive given his advancing age.

SEASON TREND20182017
Fantasy Points440528
FP Average3.13.4
Regular Season GP144154
AVG0.2560.289
OPS0.8510.928
HR3739
RBI97119
R7091
SB11
BB5570
KO122139

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

Out of 26 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 16.9 FPs in 5 of them. He had 5 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL16.9 FP per Week55
Week 114 (2 games 7 per game)
Week 31 (2 games 0.5 per game)-15.9
Week 422.5 (7 games 3.2 per game)
Week 517.5 (7 games 2.5 per game)
Week 617 (6 games 2.8 per game)
Week 712 (6 games 2 per game)
Week 86 (4 games 1.5 per game)-10.9
Week 98.5 (5 games 1.7 per game)
Week 1028.5 (7 games 4.1 per game)+11.6
Week 1129 (6 games 4.8 per game)+12.1
Week 1230 (7 games 4.3 per game)+13.1
Week 1340.5 (6 games 6.8 per game)+23.6
Week 1414 (5 games 2.8 per game)
Week 1515 (6 games 2.5 per game)
Week 166 (5 games 1.2 per game)-10.9
Week 174.5 (3 games 1.5 per game)-12.4
Week 1823 (5 games 4.6 per game)
Week 1933.5 (7 games 4.8 per game)+16.6
Week 2018 (7 games 2.6 per game)
Week 219.5 (6 games 1.6 per game)
Week 2211.5 (5 games 2.3 per game)
Week 2321.5 (6 games 3.6 per game)
Week 2417 (6 games 2.8 per game)
Week 2521 (5 games 4.2 per game)
Week 265 (6 games 0.8 per game)-11.9
Week 2714 (7 games 2 per game)

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 10.7 points and on DraftKings it was 7.9 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 17 and on FanDuel it was 24.9 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All10.7 ($3.8K)31 G, 42 B7.9 ($4.5K)29 G, 41 B
9/30 TEX0 ($4.1K)-10.70 ($4.1K)-7.9
9/29 TEX0 ($4.1K)-10.70 ($4.1K)-7.9
9/28 TEX18.7 ($4.3K)+813 ($4.4K)+5.1
9/27 TEX0 ($4.1K)-10.70 ($4.3K)-7.9
9/26 OAK9.7 ($4.1K)--6 ($4K)--
9/25 OAK28.7 ($4.2K)+1821 ($4.3K)+13.1
9/24 OAK3 ($4K)-7.73 ($4.3K)-4.9
9/23 @TEX0 ($3.9K)-10.70 ($4.6K)-7.9
9/22 @TEX16 ($4K)+5.312 ($4.6K)+4.1
9/21 @TEX3 ($4.1K)-7.72 ($4.6K)-5.9
9/19 @HOU6.5 ($3.8K)--5 ($4.6K)--
9/18 @HOU0 ($3.9K)-10.70 ($3.9K)-7.9
9/17 @HOU3 ($4.1K)-7.73 ($4.9K)-4.9
9/15 @LAA6 ($4.1K)--6 ($4.3K)--
9/14 @LAA3 ($4.1K)-7.72 ($4.1K)-5.9
9/13 @LAA34.9 ($3.9K)+24.225 ($4.1K)+17.1
9/12 SD27.7 ($3.9K)+1721 ($4.4K)+13.1
9/11 SD0 ($3.9K)-10.70 ($4.3K)-7.9
9/9 NYY6.2 ($3.9K)--5 ($4.7K)--
9/8 NYY3 ($3.9K)-7.72 ($4.6K)-5.9
9/7 NYY0 ($3.8K)-10.70 ($4.3K)-7.9
9/5 BAL30.9 ($3.9K)+20.223 ($4.5K)+15.1
9/4 BAL12.2 ($4K)--9 ($4.5K)--
9/3 BAL6 ($4.1K)--5 ($4.7K)--
9/2 @OAK6.5--5--
9/1 @OAK9.7 ($4.1K)--6 ($4.1K)--
8/31 @OAK24.9 ($4K)+14.219 ($4.3K)+11.1
8/30 @OAK3.2 ($4K)-7.52 ($4.3K)-5.9
8/29 @SD9.7 ($3.5K)--7 ($4.3K)--
8/28 @SD18.7 ($3.5K)+814 ($4.3K)+6.1
8/26 @ARI3 ($3.5K)-7.72 ($4.1K)-5.9
8/25 @ARI6 ($3.7K)--6 ($4.6K)--
8/22 HOU27.9 ($3.6K)+17.221 ($4K)+13.1
8/21 HOU0--0--
8/20 HOU6 ($3.3K)--5 ($4K)--
8/19 LAD0 ($3.4K)-10.70 ($4.1K)-7.9
8/18 LAD12.7 ($3.6K)--9 ($4.3K)--
8/17 LAD6 ($3.7K)--5 ($4.3K)--
8/15 @OAK3 ($3.8K)-7.72 ($4.8K)-5.9
8/14 @OAK6.5 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.1K)--
8/13 @OAK12.5 ($3.7K)--9 ($4.8K)--
8/12 @HOU0 ($3.7K)-10.70 ($4.9K)-7.9
8/11 @HOU9.2 ($3.7K)--8 ($4K)--
8/10 @HOU19 ($3.9K)+8.314 ($4K)+6.1
8/9 @HOU6.5 ($3.9K)--5 ($4.1K)--
8/8 @TEX0 ($4.2K)-10.70 ($5.2K)-7.9
8/7 @TEX21.7 ($4.1K)+1116 ($5.5K)+8.1
8/6 @TEX9 ($3.9K)--8 ($5.2K)--
8/5 TOR32.2 ($3.8K)+21.523 ($5K)+15.1
8/4 TOR6 ($3.8K)--5 ($4.9K)--
8/3 TOR0 ($3.7K)-10.70 ($4.8K)-7.9
8/2 TOR40.9 ($3.5K)+30.230 ($4.5K)+22.1
8/1 HOU18.7 ($3.6K)+814 ($4.7K)+6.1
7/31 HOU0 ($3.6K)-10.70 ($4.1K)-7.9
7/30 HOU16 ($3.8K)+5.311 ($3.9K)--
7/29 @LAA9.7 ($3.6K)--7 ($4.1K)--
7/28 @LAA37.4 ($3.6K)+26.728 ($4K)+20.1
7/27 @LAA21.7 ($3.5K)+1117 ($4.2K)+9.1
7/25 SF3 ($3.7K)-7.72 ($4.2K)-5.9
7/24 SF6.2 ($3.7K)--5 ($4K)--
7/22 CHW6.2 ($4K)--5 ($4.1K)--
7/21 CHW0 ($4K)-10.70 ($4.2K)-7.9
7/20 CHW10 ($3.8K)--7 ($4.1K)--
7/15 @COL0-10.70 ($5K)-7.9
7/14 @COL3 ($4.2K)-7.73 ($4.6K)-4.9
7/12 @LAA6 ($3.7K)--5 ($4.5K)--
7/11 @LAA13 ($3.9K)--9 ($4.2K)--
7/10 @LAA3 ($3.9K)-7.72 ($4.7K)-5.9
7/8 COL15.4 ($4.1K)--10 ($5.1K)--
7/7 COL0 ($4.3K)-10.70 ($4.9K)-7.9
7/6 COL0 ($4.2K)-10.70 ($5.1K)-7.9
7/5 LAA12 ($4.2K)--9 ($5.1K)--
7/4 LAA6.5 ($4.2K)--5 ($5.1K)--
7/3 LAA24.9 ($4.1K)+14.218 ($5.3K)+10.1
7/1 KC0 ($4.3K)-10.70 ($5.5K)-7.9
6/30 KC9.2 ($4.3K)--8 ($5.6K)--
6/29 KC0 ($4K)-10.70 ($4.8K)-7.9
6/28 @BAL31.7 ($4.1K)+2124 ($5.6K)+16.1
6/25 @BAL6 ($3.9K)--4 ($5.2K)--
6/24 @BOS9 ($3.9K)--8 ($4.9K)--
6/23 @BOS21.4 ($4K)+10.717 ($4.8K)+9.1
6/22 @BOS60.9 ($3.8K)+50.244 ($4.7K)+36.1
6/21 @NYY18.4 ($4.1K)+7.714 ($4.4K)+6.1
6/20 @NYY6.2 ($4.1K)--5 ($4.7K)--
6/19 @NYY18.7 ($4.1K)+814 ($4.5K)+6.1
6/17 BOS21.7--16--
6/16 BOS6.5--5--
6/15 BOS3--2--
6/14 BOS3--2--
6/13 LAA22.2--16--
6/12 LAA0--0--
6/11 LAA43.9--32--
6/10 @TB24.9--18--
6/9 @TB24.7--18--
6/8 @TB6.2--4--
6/7 @TB3--2--
6/6 @HOU28.2--21--
6/5 @HOU9.2--8--
6/3 TB0--0--
6/2 TB9.5--7--
6/1 TB12.5--10--
5/31 TEX28.7--21--
5/30 TEX15.5--13--
5/29 TEX24.7--19--
5/28 TEX6.5--5--
5/27 MIN0--0--
5/26 MIN25.2--18--
5/25 MIN6.5--5--
5/24 @OAK3--3--
5/23 @OAK0--0--
5/19 DET3--2--
5/18 DET6.2--4--
5/15 TEX9.2--6--
5/14 @MIN6 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.2K)--
5/13 @DET3 ($3.7K)-7.72 ($4.3K)-5.9
5/12 @DET21.7 ($3.7K)+1118+10.1
5/12 @DET0 ($3.7K)-10.70-7.9
5/10 @TOR6 ($3.8K)--4 ($4.1K)--
5/9 @TOR3 ($3.7K)-7.72 ($4.2K)-5.9
5/8 @TOR12.5 ($3.7K)--10 ($4.2K)--
5/6 LAA3 ($3.9K)-7.72 ($4.1K)-5.9
5/5 LAA12.2 ($4.2K)--9 ($4.2K)--
5/4 LAA0 ($4K)-10.70 ($4.3K)-7.9
5/3 OAK25.2 ($4K)+14.518 ($4K)+10.1
5/2 OAK0 ($3.8K)-10.70 ($4.4K)-7.9
5/1 OAK25.7 ($3.8K)+1518 ($4K)+10.1
4/29 @CLE3 ($3.6K)-7.72 ($4K)-5.9
4/28 @CLE34.2 ($3.6K)+23.527+19.1
4/27 @CLE0 ($3.2K)-10.70 ($3.9K)-7.9
4/26 @CLE6 ($3.7K)--5--
4/25 @CHW19 ($3.8K)+8.315 ($4.3K)+7.1
4/24 @CHW0 ($3.9K)-10.70-7.9
4/23 @CHW0 ($3.8K)-10.70 ($4.3K)-7.9
4/22 @TEX9 ($3.5K)--8 ($4.4K)--
4/21 @TEX28.2 ($3.3K)+17.522 ($4.3K)+14.1
4/20 @TEX15 ($3.5K)--12 ($4.3K)+4.1
4/19 HOU3 ($3.5K)-7.73 ($4.3K)-4.9
4/18 HOU0 ($3.7K)-10.70 ($4.3K)-7.9
4/17 HOU0 ($3.4K)-10.70 ($4.5K)-7.9
4/16 HOU21.7 ($3.6K)+1116 ($4.4K)+8.1
4/15 OAK0 ($3.7K)-10.70 ($4.5K)-7.9
4/14 OAK6.2 ($3.6K)--5 ($4.5K)--
3/31 CLE22.2--16--
3/29 CLE22.2 ($3.2K)+11.516 ($3.8K)+8.1