Rio Ruiz's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Many would be surprised to see Rio Ruiz projected as an elite fantasy third baseman. Ranking by ownership percentage (4%), Rio Ruiz is expected to be the #32 third baseman for the rest of the season. His projection based third baseman rank is #14. There could be an opportunity to acquire him while the market is still not as high on them as the projections are. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better third baseman option available. He is projected for 318 fantasy points in 132 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#37) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Rio Ruiz behind Bote and above Solarte but the projections rank Rio Ruiz over Bote.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
318 (#14) 
Avg 
 
0.237 (#39)
OPS 
 
0.725 (#36)
Home Runs 
20 (#11) 
Runs 
60 (#14) 
RBI 
66 (#12) 
Stolen Bases 
3 (#15) 
Strikeouts 
 
128 (#45)

His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Rio Ruiz could be someone to consider. He is projected to be the #9 third baseman the rest of week 4 and he is only starting in 2% of leagues. Week 5 third basemen comparisons show, Evan Longoria (11.4 FP), Justin Turner (14.2 FP), Zack Cozart (11.6 FP), Eduardo Escobar (12.6 FP), and Tommy La Stella (12.5 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ruiz but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 2% of leagues he is expected to produce 9.9 fantasy points (WK 5). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #28 third baseman of week 5. He is projected to be better than that (the #13 third baseman). His per game projected FP average is 2.7 which is better than his actual per game average (2.2). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

He is projected for 15.2 fantasy points in week 5 (#13 3B) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
15.19 (#13) 
Avg 
 
0.249 (#22)
OPS 
0.662 (#21) 
Home Runs 
0.93 (#9) 
Runs 
2.83 (#10) 
RBI 
3.12 (#10) 
Stolen Bases 
0.1 (#21) 

  • Based on 4/19 start percentages, Rio Ruiz is valued behind Drury and above Bote but the projections rank Rio Ruiz over Drury in week 5.
  • Apr 22Apr 23Apr 24Apr 26Apr 27Apr 28
    2.7 FP vs CHW2.4 FP vs CHW2.4 FP vs CHW2.6 FP @MIN2.5 FP @MIN2.5 FP @MIN

    Rio Ruiz last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    4/18 @TB2 FP, 6 FD, 6 DK2-6
    4/17 @TB6 FP, 22 FD, 16 DK1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    4/16 @TB2 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-4, 1 RBI
    4/15 @BOS2 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-4, 1 R, 1 BB
    4/14 @BOS1 FP, 3 FD, 2 DK0-0, 1 BB

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (4/19): Rio Ruiz is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 7 DK pts (#14 among third basemen). At $3300 he is expected to be the #33 third baseman. Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Ruiz is worth $3.8K. There are 3 other options at $3300 (Giovanny Urshela, Jeimer Candelario, Dylan Moore) and Ruiz is ranked #2 among the 4. Evan Longoria (6.3 FP), Marwin Gonzalez (5.7 FP), Justin Turner (6.7 FP), Gordon Beckham (5.6 FP), and Charlie Culberson (2.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ruiz but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.6 FPs, a value reached in 11 of 33 games (33%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 39%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: Rio Ruiz is underrated on FanDuel with a projected 9.3 FD pts (#15 among third basemen). He is the #22 highest priced third baseman ($2800). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $3.3K. Rafael Devers is also priced at $2800, and Ruiz is a better option at this price. Jeimer Candelario (10.1 FP) is projected for more points at a lower salary. Justin Turner (8.7 FP), Eduardo Escobar (7.1 FP), Renato Nunez (7.8 FP), Colin Moran (5.5 FP), and Hunter Dozier (6.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ruiz but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.8 FPs, a value reached in 12 of 33 games (36%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 44%.

    Ruiz is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 4 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 9 fantasy points. He had one bad week where he came up 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL9 FP per Week11
    Week 13.5 (3 games 1.2 per game)-5.5
    Week 25 (5 games 1 per game)
    Week 316 (6 games 2.7 per game)+7
    Week 411.5 (4 games 2.9 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 7.6 points and on DraftKings it was 5.4 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 0 and on FanDuel it was 3 fantasy points. He had a relatively high ceiling. On DraftKings it was 16 and on FanDuel it was 21.7 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All7.6 ($2.3K)3 G, 6 B5.4 ($3.3K)2 G, 5 B
    4/18 @TB6 ($2.7K)--6 ($3.3K)--
    4/17 @TB21.7 ($2.8K)+14.116 ($3.3K)+10.6
    4/16 @TB6.5 ($2.7K)--5 ($3K)--
    4/15 @BOS6.2 ($2.8K)--4--
    4/14 @BOS3 ($2.5K)-4.62 ($3.3K)-3.4
    4/13 @BOS16 ($2.5K)+8.412+6.6
    4/12 @BOS0 ($2.4K)-7.60 ($3.3K)-5.4
    4/11 OAK9.2 ($2.1K)--6--
    4/10 OAK25.2 ($2.1K)+17.618 ($3.2K)+12.6
    4/9 OAK0 ($2K)-7.60 ($3.8K)-5.4
    4/7 NYY3 ($2K)-4.62 ($3.5K)-3.4
    4/4 NYY6 ($2.1K)--5--
    4/3 @TOR6 ($2.1K)--5--
    4/2 @TOR3 ($2.2K)-4.63 ($3.5K)--
    4/1 @TOR6.2 ($2K)--5 ($3.5K)--
    3/31 @NYY3 ($2K)-4.62 ($2.9K)-3.4
    3/30 @NYY9.2 ($2K)--7--
    3/28 @NYY6.5 ($2K)--5--