Rio Ruiz's Rest of Season Value is Surprising

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Based on ownership percentage (4%), Rio Ruiz has a market rank of #34 among third basemen. The projections have him 13 spots higher in the rankings. There could be a nice opportunity to acquire him before the market realizes he is undervalued. Owners should hold onto him and probably decline offers unless there is an even better third baseman option available. He is projected for 258 fantasy points in 110 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#38) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Rio Ruiz behind Moran and above France but the projections rank Rio Ruiz over Moran.

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Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
258 (#21) 
Avg 
0.251 (#26) 
OPS 
 
0.734 (#33)
Home Runs 
15 (#17) 
Runs 
48 (#20) 
RBI 
50 (#21) 
Stolen Bases 
2 (#20) 
Strikeouts 
 
102 (#38)

His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 9 third basemen comparisons show, Mike Moustakas (13.9 FP), Justin Turner (13.6 FP), Eduardo Escobar (13.9 FP), Eugenio Suarez (13.8 FP), and Miguel Sano (15.3 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ruiz but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 2% of leagues he is expected to produce 10.2 fantasy points (WK 9). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #30 third baseman of week 9. He is projected to be better than that (the #15 third baseman). His per game projected FP average is 2.4 which is better than his actual per game average (2.1). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

He is projected for 15.4 fantasy points in week 9 (#15 3B) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
15.4 (#15) 
Avg 
 
0.248 (#27)
OPS 
 
0.639 (#37)
Home Runs 
0.94 (#18) 
Runs 
2.86 (#15) 
RBI 
2.99 (#16) 
Stolen Bases 
0.11 (#20) 

  • Based on 5/18 start percentages, Rio Ruiz is valued behind Moran and above Lamb but the projections rank Rio Ruiz over Moran in week 9.
  • May 20May 21May 22May 23May 24May 25May 26
    2.1 FP vs NYY2.3 FP vs NYY2.1 FP vs NYY2.1 FP vs NYY2 FP @COL2.6 FP @COL2.2 FP @COL

    Rio Ruiz last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/17 @CLE3 FP, 9 FD, 7 DK1-4, 1 R
    5/16 @CLE8 FP, 25 FD, 18 DK1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 1 BB
    5/15 @NYY2 FP, 6 FD, 6 DK2-3
    5/12 vs LAA2 FP, 9 FD, 7 DK1-3, 2 BB
    5/11 vs LAA1 FP, 6 FD, 5 DK1-3, 1 BB

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (5/18): Projected for 9.8 FanDuel pts Rio Ruiz is the #16 ranked third baseman. He is the #30 highest priced third baseman ($2500). Based on the projection, Ruiz is worth $3.3K. Matt Duffy is also priced at $2500, and Ruiz is a better option at this price. Pablo Sandoval (6.3 FP), Evan Longoria (8.8 FP), Marwin Gonzalez (9.2 FP), Eduardo Escobar (7.3 FP), and Nolan Arenado (9.6 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ruiz but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 5.3 FPs, a value reached in 25 of 55 games (45%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 41%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: There are 2 other options at $3800 (Giovanny Urshela, Willians Astudillo) and Ruiz is the best option of these 3. Evan Longoria (6.8 FP), Eduardo Escobar (5.7 FP), Nolan Arenado (7.3 FP), Maikel Franco (7.2 FP), and Miguel Sano (6.5 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Ruiz but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 6.6 FPs, a value reached in 13 of 55 games (24%). The combined 'cover percentage' for third basemen expected to start is 39%.

    Ruiz is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 8 fantasy weeks he had one where he was +50% above his weekly average of 9.7 fantasy points. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL9.7 FP per Week12
    Week 13.5 (3 games 1.2 per game)-6.2
    Week 25 (5 games 1 per game)
    Week 316 (6 games 2.7 per game)+6.3
    Week 413.5 (7 games 1.9 per game)
    Week 510 (6 games 1.7 per game)
    Week 64 (4 games 1 per game)-5.7
    Week 713 (6 games 2.2 per game)
    Week 812.5 (3 games 4.2 per game)

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 7.2 points and on DraftKings it was 5.5 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 10 and 16 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All7.2 ($2.4K)7 G, 15 B5.5 ($3.4K)6 G, 12 B
    5/17 @CLE9.2 ($2.3K)--7 ($3.5K)--
    5/16 @CLE25.2 ($2.3K)+1818 ($3.3K)+12.5
    5/15 @NYY6 ($2.4K)--6 ($3.3K)--
    5/12 LAA9 ($2.6K)--7 ($3.1K)--
    5/11 LAA6 ($2.6K)--5 ($3.6K)--
    5/10 LAA0 ($2.6K)-7.20 ($3.5K)-5.5
    5/8 BOS3 ($2.5K)-4.23 ($3.1K)--
    5/7 BOS22.2 ($2.5K)+1516 ($3.4K)+10.5
    5/6 BOS9.2 ($2.4K)--8 ($3.4K)--
    5/4 TB0 ($2.4K)-7.20 ($3.4K)-5.5
    5/3 TB3 ($2.2K)-4.23 ($3.1K)--
    5/1 @CHW12.2 ($2.2K)+510 ($3.4K)+4.5
    4/29 @CHW0 ($2.3K)-7.20 ($3.5K)-5.5
    4/28 @MIN0 ($2.2K)-7.20 ($3.5K)-5.5
    4/27 @MIN9.5 ($2.2K)--8 ($3.3K)--
    4/26 @MIN3 ($2.3K)-4.22 ($3.6K)-3.5
    4/24 CHW6.5 ($2.3K)--5 ($3.6K)--
    4/23 CHW12.4 ($2.4K)+5.29 ($3.6K)+3.5
    4/22 CHW6 ($2.5K)--6 ($3.6K)--
    4/21 MIN0 ($2.6K)-7.20 ($3.7K)-5.5
    4/20 MIN0 ($2.6K)-7.20 ($3.8K)-5.5
    4/20 MIN9 ($2.6K)--8 ($3.8K)--
    4/18 @TB6 ($2.7K)--6 ($3.3K)--
    4/17 @TB21.7 ($2.8K)+14.516 ($3.3K)+10.5
    4/16 @TB6.5 ($2.7K)--5 ($3K)--
    4/15 @BOS6.2 ($2.8K)--4--
    4/14 @BOS3 ($2.5K)-4.22 ($3.3K)-3.5
    4/13 @BOS16 ($2.5K)+8.812+6.5
    4/12 @BOS0 ($2.4K)-7.20 ($3.3K)-5.5
    4/11 OAK9.2 ($2.1K)--6--
    4/10 OAK25.2 ($2.1K)+1818 ($3.2K)+12.5
    4/9 OAK0 ($2K)-7.20 ($3.8K)-5.5
    4/7 NYY3 ($2K)-4.22 ($3.5K)-3.5
    4/4 NYY6 ($2.1K)--5--
    4/3 @TOR6 ($2.1K)--5--
    4/2 @TOR3 ($2.2K)-4.23 ($3.5K)--
    4/1 @TOR6.2 ($2K)--5 ($3.5K)--
    3/31 @NYY3 ($2K)-4.22 ($2.9K)-3.5
    3/30 @NYY9.2 ($2K)--7--
    3/28 @NYY6.5 ($2K)--5--