Schebler Rest of Season Fantasy Value: Expectations vs Projection

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Based on ownership percentage (17%), Scott Schebler has a market rank of #88 among outfielders. The projections have him 21 spots higher in the rankings. There could be a nice opportunity to acquire him before the market realizes he is undervalued. Unless someone offers an even better outfielder value, we advise you to hold on to him. He is projected for 269 fantasy points in 112 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#114) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Scott Schebler behind Hernandez and above Pence but the projections rank Scott Schebler over Hernandez.

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Lower Own%S. Schebler ROSHigher Own%
T. Naquin (272 FP)270 FPJ. Bruce (216 FP)
B. McKinney (287 FP)#88 OutfieldM. Gonzalez (235 FP)
 
 
A. Garcia (258 FP)
 
 
L. Garcia (169 FP)
 
 
A. Pollock (174 FP)
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
269 (#67) 
Avg 
 
0.224 (#143)
OPS 
 
0.715 (#116)
Home Runs18 (#46) 
 
Runs 
57 (#59) 
RBI 
49 (#68) 
Stolen Bases 
 
3 (#101)
Strikeouts 
 
117 (#129)

His value decreases in leagues where winning specific categories is important because he has more relative weaknesses than strengths.

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Week 7 outfielders comparisons show these are 3 better options at lower start percentages: Christin Stewart (19.2 FP), Clint Frazier (15.8 FP), and Shohei Ohtani (17.6 FP). Hunter Pence (10.6 FP), Alex Gordon (14.1 FP), Ben Zobrist (13.9 FP), Ryan Braun (12.7 FP), and Lorenzo Cain (14.9 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Schebler but are starting in more leagues. Starting in 6% of leagues he is expected to produce 11.8 fantasy points (WK 7). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #81 outfielder of week 7. He is projected to be better than that (the #39 outfielder). His per game projected FP average is 2.6 which is better than his actual per game average (1.8). In addition to a solid projected FP average, he will benefit from playing a projected 6 games.

Lower Start%S. Schebler WK 7Higher Start%
C. Stewart (19 FP)16 FPH. Pence (11 FP)
C. Frazier (16 FP)#81 OutfieldA. Gordon (14 FP)
S. Ohtani (18 FP) 
B. Zobrist (14 FP)
 
 
R. Braun (13 FP)
 
 
L. Cain (15 FP)

He is projected for 15.5 fantasy points in week 7 (#39 OF) in 6 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
15.54 (#39) 
Avg 
 
0.243 (#100)
OPS 
 
0.677 (#70)
Home Runs1.05 (#25) 
 
Runs 
3.09 (#40) 
RBI 
 
2.45 (#65)
Stolen Bases 
 
0.15 (#97)

  • Based on 5/2 start percentages, Scott Schebler is valued behind Fowler and above Gonzalez but the projections rank Scott Schebler over Fowler in week 7.
  • May 6May 7May 8May 9May 10May 11May 12
    2.3 FP vs SF2 FP @OAK2 FP @OAK2.4 FP @OAK2 FP @SF2.5 FP @SF2.3 FP @SF

    Scott Schebler last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    5/1 @NYM0 FP, 0 FD, 0 DK0-2
    4/29 @NYM2 FP, 9 FD, 6 DK0-2, 1 R, 2 BB
    4/28 @STL4 FP, 13 FD, 9 DK1-4, 2 RBI
    4/27 @STL1 FP, 6 FD, 4 DK0-3, 1 R, 1 BB
    4/26 @STL2 FP, 12 FD, 8 DK0-3, 2 R, 2 BB

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE (5/2): Scott Schebler is underrated on DraftKings with a projected 5.8 DK pts (#46 among outfielders). He is the #69 highest priced outfielder ($3200). Using the salaries and projected points for healthy players in in today's pool to calculate expected points per dollar, Schebler is worth $3.2K. These are 3 better options at lower salaries: Peter Bourjos (6 FP), Jackie Bradley (7.1 FP), and Billy McKinney (6.7 FP). Matt Joyce (4.6 FP), Jon Jay (4.6 FP), Jake Marisnick (2.2 FP), Juan Lagares (1.4 FP), and Michael Taylor (4.4 FP) are all projected for fewer points than Schebler but have higher salaries. Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.4 FPs, a value reached in 69 of 135 games (51%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 38%.

    FANDUEL VALUE: There are 2 other options at $2400 (Billy Hamilton, Ben Gamel) and Schebler is the best option of these 3. These are 4 better options at lower salaries: Peter Bourjos (8 FP), Jackie Bradley (9.6 FP), Manuel Margot (7.8 FP), and Billy McKinney (8.8 FP). He is projected for more points than 4 higher priced options: Leury Garcia (5.4 FP), Jorge Soler (6.1 FP), Raimel Tapia (5.2 FP), and Ryan Cordell (7.4 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 4.9 FPs, a value reached in 78 of 135 games (58%). The combined 'cover percentage' for outfielders expected to start is 44%.

    Schebler is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

    Out of 6 fantasy weeks, he was +50% above his weekly average of 6.3 FPs in 2 of them. He had 2 bad weeks where he was 50% below average.

    WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
    ALL6.3 FP per Week22
    Week 1-1.5 (2 games -0.8 per game)-7.8
    Week 210.5 (7 games 1.5 per game)+4.2
    Week 313.5 (5 games 2.7 per game)+7.2
    Week 45 (6 games 0.8 per game)
    Week 58 (6 games 1.3 per game)
    Week 62.5 (2 games 1.2 per game)-3.8

    DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

    His FanDuel average was 5.6 points and on DraftKings it was 4.2 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. When he was bad in DFS, he was really bad with a floor of zero points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 8 and 13 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

    GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
    All5.6 ($2.3K)8 G, 13 B4.2 ($3.6K)6 G, 9 B
    5/1 @NYM0 ($2.3K)-5.60 ($3K)-4.2
    4/29 @NYM9.2 ($2.5K)+3.66 ($3.2K)--
    4/28 @STL13 ($2.1K)+7.49 ($3.1K)+4.8
    4/27 @STL6.2 ($2.1K)--4 ($3.3K)--
    4/26 @STL12.4 ($2K)+6.88 ($3.3K)+3.8
    4/25 ATL6.2 ($2.1K)--4 ($3.3K)--
    4/24 ATL0 ($2.1K)-5.60 ($3.6K)-4.2
    4/23 ATL3 ($2K)--2 ($3.7K)-2.2
    4/21 @SD0 ($2.2K)-5.60 ($3.5K)-4.2
    4/20 @SD9.2 ($2.3K)+3.69 ($3.4K)+4.8
    4/19 @SD0 ($2.4K)-5.60 ($3.6K)-4.2
    4/18 @SD6.2 ($2.4K)--4 ($3.7K)--
    4/17 @LAD0 ($2.4K)-5.60-4.2
    4/15 @LAD0 ($2.5K)-5.60 ($3.5K)-4.2
    4/14 STL0 ($2.6K)-5.60-4.2
    4/13 STL12.7 ($2.6K)+7.19 ($3.9K)+4.8
    4/11 MIA0 ($2.6K)-5.60-4.2
    4/10 MIA0 ($2.4K)-5.60-4.2
    4/9 MIA31.2 ($2.2K)+25.624+19.8
    4/7 @PIT21.7 ($2.2K)+16.117 ($3.9K)+12.8
    4/6 @PIT6.2 ($2.3K)--5--
    4/5 @PIT0 ($2.2K)-5.60 ($4.1K)-4.2
    4/4 @PIT9 ($2.2K)+3.47 ($4.2K)+2.8
    4/3 MIL0 ($2.3K)-5.60-4.2
    4/2 MIL3.5 ($2.4K)--2-2.2
    4/1 MIL6 ($2.6K)--4--
    3/31 PIT0 ($2.8K)-5.60 ($4.2K)-4.2
    3/28 PIT0 ($2.9K)-5.60 ($3.7K)-4.2