Steven Matz Fantasy Value: Buy, Sell or Hold?

REST OF SEASON VALUE

Based on ownership percentage (84%), Steven Matz has a market rank of #58 among starting pitchers. The market expects more than the projections do. His projection based starting pitcher rank is #97. Owners should not be surprised if they find themselves benching Matz more than they thought. There are other starting pitchers with virtually the same market rank (Rich Hill, Rick Porcello, Marcus Stroman 84% Owned) and Matz ranks #3 out of 4. He is projected for 18 fantasy points in 27 remaining games. He has a lower rank (#98) based on projected fantasy average. The market ranks Steven Matz behind Chacin and above Stroman and the projections agree.

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Lower Own%S. Matz ROSHigher Own%
C. Sabathia (24 FP)18 FPK. Freeland (15 FP)
A. Sanchez (44 FP)#58 Starting PitcherC. Paddack (7 FP)
R. Hill (67 FP) 
 
J. Vargas (43 FP) 
 
H. Bailey (24 FP) 
 
Projected StatRelative StrengthOverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
18 (#97) 
Wins 
 
5 (#147)
Losses 
 
9 (#135)
Quality Starts 
11 (#102) 
Strikeouts138 (#56) 
 
Innings 
 
144 (#106)
Walks45 (#83) 
 
ERA3.06 (#17) 
 
WHIP1.15 (#45) 
 

WEEKLY FANTASY VALUE

Steven Matz is a bad value the rest of the week. He has a market rank of #58 while his projection (rest of week 4) rank is #91. Based on start%, Williams is expected to produce more fantasy points than Steven Matz and the projections validate that assessment. Pineda is the player that the market has ranked 1 spot below Steven Matz but the projections have Pineda putting up more fantasy points. Starting in 55% of leagues he is expected to produce 2.5 fantasy points (WK 5). At his start percentage, he is expected to be the #48 starting pitcher of the week, but he is projected to be the #89 starting pitcher. In terms of total fantasy points he projected to come up 2.1 short of expectations. His per game projected FP average is 0.2 which is less than his actual per game average (5.3).

He is projected for 0.4 fantasy points in week 5 (#94 SP) in 4 games.

Projected StatRelative StrengthWK OverallRelative Weakness
Fantasy Points 
0.44 (#94) 
Wins0.38 (#77) 
 
Losses 
 
0.64 (#137)
Quality Starts0.8 (#30) 
 
Strikeouts10.45 (#14) 
 
Innings10.06 (#33) 
 
Walks3.44 (#16) 
 

  • Based on 4/16 start percentages, Steven Matz is valued behind Williams and above Pineda but the projections rank Pineda over Steven Matz in week 5.
  • Steven Matz last five game log with fantasy points (CBS, FD, DK) and statline.

    OPPFANTASYSTATLINE
    4/11 @ATL13 FP, 46 FD, 26 DK6 IP, 2 ER, 8 K, 4 HA, 1 BBI, LOSS
    4/6 vs WAS3 FP, 39 FD, 24 DK5 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 2 HA, 4 BBI
    4/1 @MIA0 FP, 22 FD, 12 DK5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K, 6 HA, 0 BBI, WIN
    9/29 vs MIA9 FP, 46 FD, 27 DK6 IP, 0 ER, 8 K, 3 HA, 1 BBI
    9/23 @WAS-7 FP, 12 FD, 3 DK3 IP, 3 ER, 4 K, 5 HA, 3 BBI, LOSS

    DAILY FANTASY VALUE

    FANDUEL VALUE (4/16): Matz is not the best option on FanDuel with a projected 27.3 FD pts (#17 among pitchers). At $8200 he is expected to be the #13 pitcher. At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $7.5K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Instead of Matz consider these better options at lower salaries: Kyle Gibson (30 FP), Jose Quintana (34 FP), Dylan Bundy (28.2 FP), Jorge Lopez (29.4 FP), and Mike Minor (27.5 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 29.9 FPs, a value reached in 16 of 34 games (47%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 39%.

    DRAFTKINGS VALUE: Projected for 14.6 DraftKings pts Steven Matz is the #13 ranked pitcher. He is the #11 highest priced pitcher ($8100). At his projected points, he is worth a salary of $7.4K (expected pts per $ is calculated daily based on the average of healthy starters). Instead of Matz consider these better options at lower salaries: Jorge Lopez (15.8 FP), Max Fried (16 FP), and Nick Margevicius (15.6 FP). Based on salary, he is expected to have 16 FPs, a value reached in 16 of 34 games (47%). The combined 'cover percentage' for pitchers expected to start is 38%.

    Matz is NOT in the SportsLine DraftKings optimal lineup or the FanDuel optimal lineup which are based on the computer model's projection. SportsLine.com also offers premium optimal lineups from Mike McClure, a professional DFS player who has over $1 million in career winnings. He uses his own proprietary model to find great DFS values and often differs from the computer in how a player is projected to play on a daily basis.

    FANDUEL SEASON RECAP

    He averaged 35.7 FD points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. His floor was 1000 fantasy points. His ceiling was -1000 fantasy points. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average).

    GameFanDuel PointsSalaryGood GameBad Game
    All35.7$7.9K00
    4/11 @ATL46--$7.7K00
    4/6 WAS39--$7.7K00
    4/1 @MIA22--$8.2K00