Updated Futures for Next MLB 2019 Season: Red Sox Have Great Shot at Repeating

There is a 32% gap between the Red Sox and the Astros. The Houston Astros at 22.1% trails the Boston Red Sox at 29.1%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Astros chances are down from 24 percent. The playoff race should be a tight one with only 1.17 wins separate the 3 teams projected for the #4, #5 and #6 best AL record. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the AL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

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AL FUTURESPROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN AL ODDSWIN AL SIM
Boston Red Sox101.356.2%94.8%14/5 (26.3%)29.1%
Houston Astros94.964.4%78.8%14/5 (26.3%)22.1%
New York Yankees98.637.2%89.3%14/5 (26.3%)19.3%
Cleveland Indians90.268.7%72.8%9/2 (18.2%)11.2%
Oakland Athletics87.622.0%43.3%12/1 (7.7%)6.5%
Tampa Bay Rays89.16.5%49.7%12/1 (7.7%)5.4%
Los Angeles Angels83.610.7%23.5%30/1 (3.2%)2.8%
Minnesota Twins83.124.5%31.0%40/1 (2.4%)2.5%
Kansas City Royals75.35.5%7.0%250/1 (0.4%)0.4%
Texas Rangers76.22.1%5.3%100/1 (1%)0.4%
Seattle Mariners73.60.9%2.8%250/1 (0.4%)0.3%
Chicago White Sox68.51.0%1.3%25/1 (3.8%)--
Detroit Tigers64.00.3%0.3%250/1 (0.4%)--
Toronto Blue Jays66.00.1%0.2%100/1 (1%)--
Baltimore Orioles57.10.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

The percentage difference at the top of the NL is at 25%. The Washington Nationals at 22.8% trails the Los Angeles Dodgers at 28.6%. The gap seems to be lessening. The Dodgers chances are down from 31.3 percent. A difference of 4.22 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL is considerable. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 6 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

NL FUTURES PROJ WINSWIN DIVPLAYOFFWIN NL ODDSWIN NL SIM
Los Angeles Dodgers98.389.1%94.2%3/1 (25%)28.6%
Washington Nationals95.172.5%86.0%7/1 (12.5%)22.8%
Chicago Cubs91.442.6%71.6%5/1 (16.7%)14.2%
Milwaukee Brewers88.427.1%57.2%9/1 (10%)10.4%
St Louis Cardinals88.527.0%57.2%6/1 (14.3%)9.5%
New York Mets84.313.2%36.2%12/1 (7.7%)4.9%
Arizona Diamondbacks81.25.9%22.7%250/1 (0.4%)3.1%
Atlanta Braves82.59.8%27.5%6/1 (14.3%)2.7%
Philadelphia Phillies78.84.3%14.2%9/1 (10%)1.3%
Colorado Rockies79.33.9%15.8%15/1 (6.2%)1.1%
Pittsburgh Pirates77.43.0%10.8%40/1 (2.4%)1.0%
San Francisco Giants73.00.9%3.8%50/1 (2%)0.3%
Cincinnati Reds68.80.2%1.2%50/1 (2%)--
San Diego Padres67.90.2%0.9%50/1 (2%)--
Miami Marlins66.00.2%0.6%500/1 (0.2%)--

Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At #2, the Dodgers have a 14 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 3 percentage points behind the Red Sox. The separation between the team with the #10 highest chances vs the #12 highest is 0.8 percentage points.

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WS CONTENDERSODDSODDS%SIM%TREND
Boston Red Sox6/114.3%17.5%--
Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%14.1%--
Houston Astros6/114.3%13.5%--
New York Yankees6/114.3%10.8%--
Washington Nationals14/16.7%10.7%--
Chicago Cubs10/19.1%7.2%--
Milwaukee Brewers18/15.3%4.8%--
Cleveland Indians10/19.1%4.8%--
St Louis Cardinals12/17.7%4.6%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%2.8%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%2.2%--
New York Mets25/13.8%2%.0--
Arizona Diamondbacks500/10.2%1.2%--