Updated Futures for Next MLB 2020 Season

There is a huge 20.3% gap between AL leaders. The New York Yankees lead with a 40.1 percent chance of winning the AL and the Houston Astros are at 19.8%. The gap seems to be widening. The Astros chances are down from 39.3 percent. While 1.02 may not seem like a lot of wins, that amount of difference between the team with the #5 best record and the #6 best record is pretty large. This is a top heavy league with just 5 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning it.

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New York Yankees101.776.0%93.4%5/4 (44.4%)40.1%
Houston Astros97.767.6%85.3%7/2 (22.2%)19.8%
Minnesota Twins97.074.7%85.4%9/1 (10%)18.9%
Tampa Bay Rays91.916.7%59.1%12/1 (7.7%)5.8%
Oakland Athletics89.619.0%47.3%12/1 (7.7%)5.1%
Cleveland Indians88.620.8%43.0%12/1 (7.7%)3.6%
Los Angeles Angels87.212.9%34.7%15/1 (6.2%)3.5%
Boston Red Sox87.56.9%34.8%12/1 (7.7%)2.3%
Chicago White Sox80.74.4%11.1%20/1 (4.8%)0.8%
Toronto Blue Jays75.80.3%3.4%50/1 (2%)0.1%
Texas Rangers74.20.4%2.2%25/1 (3.8%)--
Seattle Mariners63.70.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Kansas City Royals65.40.1%0.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Baltimore Orioles56.60.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Tigers51.90.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There is a huge 33.3% gap between the Dodgers and the Nationals. The Los Angeles Dodgers lead with a 44.5 percent chance of winning the NL and the Washington Nationals are at 11.1%. The gap seems to be widening. The Nationals chances are down from 14 percent. There is a 3.44 difference in projected win total between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the NL. This is a pretty significant difference even if it does not seem to be at first glance. In terms of having a realistic chance of winning the NL, there are 7 legitimate contenders (those with >=4% chance).

Los Angeles Dodgers107.395.7%99.5%9/4 (30.8%)44.5%
Washington Nationals87.834.8%56.8%7/1 (12.5%)11.1%
Atlanta Braves87.433.2%55.2%5/1 (16.7%)9.9%
Chicago Cubs86.335.7%51.4%15/1 (6.2%)8.6%
Arizona Diamondbacks87.43.9%54.4%20/1 (4.8%)7.5%
Milwaukee Brewers83.924.2%39.0%20/1 (4.8%)4.7%
New York Mets84.621.0%40.5%7/1 (12.5%)4.6%
St Louis Cardinals83.621.8%35.6%6/1 (14.3%)3.9%
Cincinnati Reds82.117.6%29.5%15/1 (6.2%)3.0%
Philadelphia Phillies81.010.8%24.0%9/1 (10%)1.8%
San Diego Padres74.50.2%5.8%25/1 (3.8%)0.2%
Colorado Rockies72.70.1%3.9%50/1 (2%)0.1%
San Francisco Giants72.40.1%3.3%150/1 (0.7%)--
Pittsburgh Pirates67.00.4%0.7%100/1 (1%)--
Miami Marlins62.60.1%0.2%500/1 (0.2%)--

Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At #2, the Yankees have a 26 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 1 percentage points behind the Dodgers. Teams are bunched together at the bottom of the contenders list with just 0.5 percentage points separating the #8 ranked team from the #10 ranked team.

Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%27.1%--
New York Yankees3/125.0%26.0%--
Houston Astros8/111.1%8.6%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%7.9%--
Washington Nationals16/15.9%4.8%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%4.2%--
Chicago Cubs30/13.2%3.3%--
Arizona Diamondbacks40/12.4%2.9%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%2.4%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%2.4%--
New York Mets16/15.9%1.8%--
Milwaukee Brewers40/12.4%1.8%--
Cleveland Indians25/13.8%1.4%--
Los Angeles Angels30/13.2%1.3%--
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%1.3%--
Cincinnati Reds30/13.2%1.1%--