Updated Futures for Next MLB 2020 Season

The percentage difference at the top of the AL is large at 5.4%. The New York Yankees at 25.1% trail the Houston Astros at 30.5%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Yankees chances are down from 27.3 percent. A difference of 4.56 wins may not sound like much but that much of a difference between the #5 best record and the #6 best record in the AL is considerable. There are 7 teams with at least a four percent chance of winning the AL.

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Houston Astros100.881.5%91.4%7/2 (22.2%)30.5%
New York Yankees98.949.2%86.0%5/4 (44.4%)25.1%
Minnesota Twins94.064.8%74.7%9/1 (10%)12.0%
Boston Red Sox95.027.7%71.4%12/1 (7.7%)9.4%
Tampa Bay Rays94.023.0%67.3%12/1 (7.7%)9.3%
Oakland Athletics89.415.0%42.1%12/1 (7.7%)6.3%
Cleveland Indians89.232.2%46.6%12/1 (7.7%)6.2%
Los Angeles Angels81.72.7%11.3%15/1 (6.2%)0.7%
Chicago White Sox76.22.5%4.4%20/1 (4.8%)0.4%
Texas Rangers74.20.3%1.7%25/1 (3.8%)0.1%
Seattle Mariners74.40.5%2.1%250/1 (0.4%)--
Kansas City Royals69.90.5%0.8%250/1 (0.4%)--
Toronto Blue Jays66.10.1%0.1%50/1 (2%)--
Baltimore Orioles57.90.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--
Detroit Tigers51.50.1%0.1%500/1 (0.2%)--

There is a very large 28.7% gap between the Dodgers and the Cubs. The Chicago Cubs at 14.6% trail the Los Angeles Dodgers at 43.3%. The difference between these teams is widening as the Cubs chances are down from 16.7 percent. Expect the race for the final playoff spot to be tight. In simulations, the Brewers average the #5 most wins and the Cardinals average the #6 so the difference (0.91 wins) between making and missing the playoffs is expected to be small. There is parity in the league. There are 8 teams winning the NL in at least four percent of our playoff simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers102.792.2%98.2%9/4 (30.8%)43.3%
Chicago Cubs90.551.8%72.3%15/1 (6.2%)14.6%
Atlanta Braves86.532.0%53.0%5/1 (16.7%)9.0%
Washington Nationals88.140.9%61.1%7/1 (12.5%)8.8%
Milwaukee Brewers85.824.3%48.2%20/1 (4.8%)6.5%
St Louis Cardinals84.920.7%43.6%6/1 (14.3%)6.3%
Arizona Diamondbacks85.26.5%43.8%20/1 (4.8%)5.1%
New York Mets84.021.1%38.9%7/1 (12.5%)4.1%
Philadelphia Phillies77.55.7%13.4%9/1 (10%)1.1%
Cincinnati Reds73.72.0%6.1%15/1 (6.2%)0.4%
Colorado Rockies75.70.8%8.5%50/1 (2%)0.3%
San Francisco Giants72.20.2%3.6%150/1 (0.7%)0.2%
Pittsburgh Pirates71.41.0%3.1%100/1 (1%)0.2%
San Diego Padres73.60.3%5.3%25/1 (3.8%)0.1%
Miami Marlins65.00.3%0.7%500/1 (0.2%)--

Below are the latest MLB Futures for winning the World Series. At #2, the Yankees have a 16 percent chance of winning the World Series, which is 9 percentage points behind the Dodgers. At the bottom of the contenders list, 0.5 percentage points separate the Brewers from the Cardinals.

Los Angeles Dodgers6/114.3%25.3%--
New York Yankees3/125.0%16.3%--
Houston Astros8/111.1%16.0%--
Chicago Cubs30/13.2%5.9%--
Minnesota Twins20/14.8%5.5%--
Boston Red Sox25/13.8%4.8%--
Tampa Bay Rays25/13.8%4.2%--
Atlanta Braves12/17.7%4.0%--
Washington Nationals16/15.9%3.7%--
Oakland Athletics25/13.8%3.1%--
Milwaukee Brewers40/12.4%2.6%--
Cleveland Indians25/13.8%2.3%--
St Louis Cardinals14/16.7%2.0%--
Arizona Diamondbacks40/12.4%1.9%--
New York Mets16/15.9%1.3%--