Will the Atlanta Braves Go Over or Under 84 Wins in 2019?

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went better than expected. They won 90 games vs an expected win total of 81.3. Their strength was in road games. They went 47-34 on the road and were expected to win 37.8. Their 53.1% home win percentage was as expected (53.7%). The latest simulations project a significant drop in wins with a per simulation average of 83.8 wins and are projected to finish seventh in the National League. They have a nice projected cushion over the #8 ranked Rockies who are projected for 80.5 wins.

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TEAM STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Their record should be slightly better. Since last season their average run differential is +0.54 which ranks #4 in the NL, but their rank based on win percentage is #5. This is a relatively better road team than a home team. They are the #4 ranked team in run differential in road games, vs #7 in home games.

TEAM STATS PER GAME (League Rank):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All 166 Games4.6 (#6)0.254 (#2)0.589 (#7)
Road4.4 (#8)0.256 (#1)0.623 (#1)
Home4.8 (#3)0.253 (#6)0.559 (#10)

ALLOWED TO OPPOSING TEAMS (Lower # is Better):

SituationRunsBatting AvgOPS
All4.1 (#5)0.229 (#2)0.557 (#3)
Road3.7 (#2)0.224 (#10.552 (#5)
Home4.4 (#11)0.234 (#5)0.564 (#6)

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TEAM STATS AND BETTING RESULT GAMELOG

Below is a betting recap of all 162 regular games. Anyone who backed the Braves in all of their games would have earned a +1876 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the run line, they have lost -736 units risking 100 units on each pick (82-80 PL). They are down against the run line at home and on the road.

Season RecapGS-GAMoney LineRun Line RecordO/U Record
All Games4.7 - 4.190-72, +187682-80, -73678-79 50.3% Under
On Road4.5 - 3.747-34, +187644-37, -29240-40 50% Over
At Home4.8 - 4.443-38, -13338-43, -44238-39 50.6% Under
9/30 @PHI1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
9/29 @PHI0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 7.5
9/28 @PHI10-2Win +71Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/27 @NYM1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
9/26 @NYM0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 7
9/25 @NYM7-3Win +131Covered +1.5Over 7.5
9/23 PHI2-1Win +145Covered +1.5Under 7.5
9/22 PHI5-3Win +67Covered -1.5Under 8.5
9/21 PHI6-5Win +81Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
9/20 PHI8-3Win +70Covered -1.5Over 8.5
9/19 STL7-3Win +105Covered +1.5Over 8.5
9/18 STL1-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
9/17 STL6-11Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
9/16 WAS4-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
9/15 WAS1-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 10
9/14 WAS10-5Win +140Covered +1.5Over 8
9/12 @SF2-1Win +66Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
9/11 @SF4-1Win +67Covered -1.5Under 7
9/10 @SF4-1Win +85Covered -1.5Under 7.5
9/9 @ARI9-5Win +135Covered +1.5Over 8.5
9/8 @ARI5-4Win +125Covered +1.5Over 8.5
9/7 @ARI3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
9/6 @ARI7-6Win +153Covered +1.5Over 8
9/5 BOS8-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
9/4 BOS1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8.5
9/3 BOS2-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 9
9/2 PIT5-1Win +59Covered -1.5Under 8.5
9/1 PIT5-3Win +85Covered -1.5Under 8.5
8/31 PIT2-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/30 CHC4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/29 TB5-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/28 TB9-5Win +79Covered -1.5Over 8.5
8/26 @MIA4-0Win +56Covered -1.5Under 7.5
8/25 @MIA1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
8/24 @MIA0-1Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7.5
8/23 @MIA5-0Win +53Covered -1.5Under 8.5
8/22 @PIT2-1Win +92Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/21 @PIT6-1Win +81Covered -1.5Under 7.5
8/20 @PIT1-0Win +118Covered +1.5Under 8
8/19 COL2-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/18 COL3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
8/17 COL5-11Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/16 COL3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8.5
8/15 MIA5-2Win +40Covered -1.5Under 8.5
8/14 MIA10-6Win +49Covered -1.5Over 8.5
8/13 MIA6-1Win +33Covered -1.5Under 9
8/13 MIA9-1Win +48Covered -1.5Over 9
8/12 MIL8-7Win +74Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/11 MIL2-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9
8/10 MIL10-1Win +91Covered +1.5Over 8.5
8/9 @WAS3-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Push 9
8/8 @WAS8-3Win +128Covered +1.5Over 9
8/7 @WAS3-1Win +197Covered +1.5Under 8
8/7 @WAS3-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 10
8/5 @NYM5-4Win +71Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
8/4 @NYM0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
8/3 @NYM2-1Win +140Covered +1.5Under 7
8/2 @NYM4-2Win +65Covered -1.5Under 8.5
7/31 MIA11-6Win +57Covered -1.5Over 9
7/30 MIA5-3Win +57Covered -1.5Under 9
7/29 LAD4-1Win +135Covered +1.5Under 8.5
7/28 LAD1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9
7/27 LAD1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8
7/26 LAD2-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8.5
7/24 @MIA3-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 7.5
7/23 @MIA12-1Win +87Covered -1.5Over 8
7/22 @WAS2-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
7/20 @WAS8-5Win +167Covered +1.5Over 8.5
7/15 ARI5-1Win +120Covered +1.5Under 8.5
7/14 ARI0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8
7/13 ARI1-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
7/11 TOR9-5Win +50Covered -1.5Over 8.5
7/10 TOR2-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
7/8 @MIL3-10Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8.5
7/7 @MIL5-1Win +95Covered +1.5Under 9.5
7/6 @MIL4-5Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8
7/5 @MIL2-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8.5
7/4 @NYY2-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9.5
7/3 @NYY5-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 9
7/2 @NYY5-3Win +185Covered +1.5Under 9.5
7/1 @STL6-5Win +88Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
6/30 @STL11-4Win +122Covered +1.5Over 8.5
6/29 @STL5-1Win +126Covered +1.5Under 8.5
6/27 CIN5-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
6/26 CIN3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
6/25 CIN5-4Win +69Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
6/24 BAL7-3Win +53Covered -1.5Over 9.5
6/23 BAL5-7Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
6/22 BAL7-10Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
6/20 @TOR4-5Loss -100Covered +1.5Over 8.5
6/19 @TOR11-4Win +93Covered +1.5Over 9
6/17 SD4-1Win +87Covered -1.5Under 8.5
6/16 SD1-0Win +50Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
6/15 SD3-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8
6/14 SD4-2Win +57Covered -1.5Under 8.5
6/13 NYM2-0Win +102Covered +1.5Under 7.5
6/12 NYM8-2Win +65Covered -1.5Over 8.5
6/10 @LAD2-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7
6/9 @LAD5-3Win +150Covered +1.5Over 7.5
6/8 @LAD3-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
6/6 @SD1-3Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 7
6/5 @SD14-1Win +75Covered -1.5Over 7.5
6/4 @SD4-11Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
6/3 WAS4-2Win +81Covered -1.5Under 9.5
6/2 WAS3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 9
6/1 WAS4-0Win +125Covered +1.5Under 8
5/31 WAS4-2Win +80Covered -1.5Under 8.5
5/30 NYM1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8
5/29 NYM7-6Win +74Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/28 NYM5-8Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/28 NYM4-3Win +94Covered +1.5Under 7.5
5/27 @BOS7-1Win +200Covered +1.5Over 7.5
5/26 @BOS6-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 10.5
5/25 @BOS2-6Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 10.5
5/23 @PHI0-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8.5
5/22 @PHI3-1Win +107Covered +1.5Under 8.5
5/21 @PHI0-3Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 8.5
5/20 MIA10-9Win +56Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/19 MIA8-1Win +50Covered -1.5Over 8.5
5/18 MIA0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
5/16 CHC4-1Win +91Covered +1.5Under 9.5
5/15 CHC2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 9
5/14 @CHC6-5Win +138Covered +1.5Over 8.5
5/13 @MIA4-3Win +67Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8
5/12 @MIA10-5Win +72Covered -1.5Over 8
5/11 @MIA3-6Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
5/10 @MIA9-2Win +91Covered -1.5Over 7.5
5/9 @TB5-2Win +95Covered +1.5Under 8
5/8 @TB1-0Win +125Covered +1.5Under 7.5
5/6 SF3-4Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9
5/5 SF2-11Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/4 SF4-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 9
5/3 @NYM11-0Win +100Covered +1.5Over 9
5/2 @NYM7-0Win +146Covered +1.5Under 7.5
5/1 @NYM3-2Win +166Covered +1.5Under 7.5
4/29 @PHI10-1Win +99Covered +1.5Over 8.5
4/28 @PHI4-1Win +108Covered +1.5Under 8.5
4/27 @PHI3-7Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 8
4/26 @CIN7-4Win +80Covered -1.5Over 9
4/25 @CIN5-4Win +92Run Line Loss -1.5Under 9.5
4/24 @CIN7-9Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
4/23 @CIN4-10Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Over 8.5
4/21 NYM4-3Win +148Covered +1.5Under 8.5
4/20 NYM3-5Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 7.5
4/19 NYM12-4Win +95Covered +1.5Over 9.5
4/18 PHI7-3Win +83Covered -1.5Over 9
4/17 PHI1-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Under 8.5
4/16 PHI2-1Win +115Covered +1.5Under 8
4/14 @CHC10-14Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Over 6.5
4/13 @CHC4-0Win +185Covered +1.5Under 7.5
4/11 @WAS5-3Win +105Covered +1.5Under 9
4/10 @WAS1-4Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 7
4/9 @WAS0-2Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Under 7.5
4/8 @COL4-0Win +140Covered +1.5Under 11
4/7 @COL2-3Loss -100Covered +1.5Under 11
4/6 @COL8-3Win +138Covered +1.5Over 9.5
4/4 WAS7-1Win +185Covered +1.5Push 8
4/3 WAS13-6Win +120Covered +1.5Over 9.5
4/2 WAS1-8Loss -100Run Line Loss +1.5Push 9
3/31 PHI15-2Win +87Covered -1.5Over 8
3/30 PHI4-5Loss -100Run Line Loss -1.5Push 9
3/29 PHI8-5Win +115Covered +1.5Over 8