headshot
Aaron
Nola
College None
Team Philadelphia Phillies
27SP
6'2"Height
200Weight
25Age
4Exp
R/RBats/Throws
Aaron Nola's Fantasy Scouting Report

As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.

2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD

Aaron Nola is projected to be a must start starting pitcher next season. His projected position rank based on season total fantasy points is #20 (at SP). In 2018, he was owned in 97 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 3.51 fantasy points per game in 30 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is down from where he finished last season.

Stream Major League Baseball games with SlingTV

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Aaron Nola was the number #9 ranked SP. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (33). Based on average fantasy points he is the #10 SP. We split his 33 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 12 games he averaged 7.7 fantasy points which was higher than his start (6.2 FP) and his ending average (5.7 FP). He is still relatively young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. His fantasy production is stable and he is not as volatile as most players based on a below average standard deviation. Our projected ceiling for Nola when he 'goes off' is 20 fantasy points (his average is 6.6FPs).

SportsLine has the best MLB picks and Daily Fantasy Lineups. In the off-season check out our coverage of all major leagues (NFL, NBA, NHL, Horses, NASCAR, and Golf).

STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON

As a young player he improved as you would like. His fantasy average improved by 164%.

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 8.4 fantasy points per week and had 10 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 8 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

He averaged 41.4 FD points and 22.7 DK points per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 8.1 and on FanDuel it was 18 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On Draftkings it was 31.6 and on FanDuel it was 55 FPs. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average), but on DraftKings he has had more bad than good games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

Past Projections
  • 06 Dec 2018

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#21 SP)

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#21 SP)
  • 04 Dec 2018

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#19 SP)

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#19 SP)
  • 29 Nov 2018

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#22 SP)

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#22 SP)
  • 26 Nov 2018

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#22 SP)

    Aaron Nola is Projected to Be an Elite Fantasy Player in 2019 (#22 SP)
  • Career Stats
    YEARTEAMAPPGSINNWLSKBBIHAERAWHIPCGSO
    2018PHI3333212.31760224581492.370.9700
    2017PHI2727168.012110184491543.531.2000
    2016PHI2020111.0690121291164.781.3000
    2015PHI131377.76206819743.611.2000
    Career (5 Seasons)9393569.0412805971554933.351.1300
    YEARTEAMRAERHRAHBIBBIGOAOGDAOPKOBWPRD9BS
    2018PHI575617732301631.44149.070
    2017PHI676618221781261.400110.980
    2016PHI68591063135761.810212.240
    2015PHI3131112185701.200011.080
    Career (5 Seasons)223212561796284351.451710.520
    2017 Situational Stats
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    April204.5330000162088106152000275.317
    May035.6333000016151010315145000259.242
    June323.2455000033.12712124011350000516.220
    July311.32550000342455208434000506.192
    August234.2366000038.13718183110343200606.253
    September223.8655000030.1311413509437001503.256
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    Home952.981414000093.27331311112411192001418.212
    Away364.241313000074.1813635712573120011247.275
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    Day142.9877000042.13314143111456000666.208
    Night1173.7220200000125.2121535215138139152011999.252
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    vs. Ariz.017.5110000695510260000106.333
    vs. Atl.201.2220000151022011120100197.200
    vs. Cin.017.511000066552025200097.250
    vs. Col.002.57110000762200271000103.222
    vs. Hou.1001100006400001100000103.182
    vs. LA-AL013110000682200131000106.320
    vs. LA-NL102.5711000075221028000094.200
    vs. Miami137.5944000021.1281818606295000375.308
    vs. Milw.102.08220000131233204161000193.245
    vs. NY-NL203.7522000012955206101100204.209
    vs. Pitt.110.6422000014811013132000188.160
    vs. S.D.012.25110000842200292000111.143
    vs. Sea.102.57110000752210490000113.208
    vs. S.F.01911000057550033100084.333
    vs. St.L.112.9222000012.1844204140000200.178
    vs. Wash.113.2244000022.12598106305001391.281
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    Coors Field002.57110000762200271000103.222
    Angel Stadium of Anaheim013110000682200131000106.320
    Nationals Park002.6122000010.11343002142001196.295
    Safeco Field102.57110000752210490000113.208
    Citi Field107.211000057441042100096.350
    Marlins Park0211.252200008151010302114000173.385
    Citizens Bank Park952.981414000093.27331311112411192001418.212
    SunTrust Park101.1311000085110016000097.185
    Miller Park00311000067221027100097.280
    PNC Park011.2911000074110125100089.167
    AT&T Park01911000057550033100084.333
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    Grass12113.5427270000168154676618249184212012665.241
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    Post All-Star653.491414000087.284353410124103112011405.249
    Pre All-Star663.591313000080.1703232812581100001260.232
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    RISP0010.27260000037.23244433111393100553.237
    RISP w/Two out0010.26260000016.2172019104160100260.266
    Runners on Base006.66270000075.2605756811476212011054.224
    Bases Empty000.97270000092.19410101013510800001611.253
    Bases Loaded0010.83000001.20220101000013.000
    Late Inning Pressure0010.3810000008.215101030481000185.366
    LIP-Runners On0016.2100000057992005100085.318
    with 0 outs002.01270000058.14413136018673001906.205
    with 1 out004.4227000005754282871226212000931.250
    with 2 outs004.27270000052.2562625519556200828.268
    w/Bases Full 2 Out0001000000.1000000100005.000
    CATEGORYWLERAGGSCGSHOSVSVOINNHRERHRHBPBBSOSBCSBKWPTPAVG
    Last 7 Appearances334.3377000043.24522217111567101708.263
    SVO (incl. Holds)00---0000000000000000000.000
    As Starter12113.5427270000168154676618249184212012665.241
    > 5 Days Rest931.951414000092.171202082239682001382.211
    5 Days Rest285.561212000069.27644431002481120011194.270
    < 5 Days Rest00---0000000000000000000.000
    Busch Stadium015.411000054331026000093.211
    2017 Game Log
    APRIL
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTRECORDSVERAGSCGSHOIPHRERHRBBKHBWPBKPC
    04/08vsW1-004.501006.073302700089
    04/14@L1-003.271005.061100600090
    04/20@W2-004.501005.074414200096
    MAY
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTRECORDSVERAGSCGSHOIPHRERHRBBKHBWPBKPC
    05/21@L2-103.521007.041102510089
    05/26vsL2-204.341006.065522500097
    05/31@L2-305.061003.054411400073
    JUNE
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTRECORDSVERAGSCGSHOIPHRERHRBBKHBWPBKPC
    06/06@W3-304.281008.051101600097
    06/11@L3-404.401005.043312600093
    06/16vsL3-504.761006.0955126000106
    06/22vsW4-504.341007.3411128000107
    06/27@W5-504.151007.0522149000113
    JULY
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTRECORDSVERAGSCGSHOIPHRERHRBBKHBWPBKPC
    07/03vsW6-503.751007.040001800099
    07/08vsL6-603.601008.0422029000111
    07/15@L6-603.561006.072212700097
    07/21vsW7-603.391007.051112900096
    07/26vsW8-603.181006.04000110000103
    AUGUST
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTRECORDSVERAGSCGSHOIPHRERHRBBKHBWPBKPC
    08/01@L8-703.171006.0822013000106
    08/06@L8-703.131007.0622027000103
    08/12vsW9-703.031007.0211128000108
    08/17@L9-803.271005.075503300084
    08/22vsL9-903.601006.3977227000105
    08/28vsW10-903.481007.0511006100100
    SEPTEMBER
    DATETEAMOPPONENTRESULTRECORDSVERAGSCGSHOIPHRERHRBBKHBWPBKPC
    09/02@L10-1003.741005.01066217000100
    09/07@L10-1003.731005.3732028010106
    09/13vsW11-1003.621007.0411121100097
    09/19vsW12-1003.581007.052212800094
    09/25vsL12-1103.561006.0522129000106