|Aaron Nola's Fantasy Scouting Report|
As you may have noticed we have transformed Scout into a data and stats driven service geared towards helping invested fans make the right decisions on a daily basis. This is our new Fantasy Scouting Report that we produce for each fantasy relevant player. We treat them like a stock and report their value in season long fantasy, the current fantasy week, and if applicable, on FanDuel and on DraftKings. We establish what is expected of the player based on fantasy ownership %, start %, and DFS Salary and see if our proprietary forecasting model projects a better or worse than expected performance. For complete recaps of the best and worst values for each market (season, weekly, daily), injury reports and team outlooks be sure to check out the new Scout.
2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD
Aaron Nola is projected to be an elite fantasy starting pitcher and worth a high draft pick. In our latest projection he is the #17 starting pitcher based on total projected fantasy points. In 2018, he was owned in 97 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 4.45 fantasy points per game in 30 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is down from where he finished last season.
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SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND
Aaron Nola was the #232 ranked fantasy player this season. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (33). Based on average fantasy points he is the #7 SP. We split his 33 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). He showed improvement from his start of the season to the middle of his season, but then his production dropped off. In his middle 12 games he averaged 7.7 fantasy points which was higher than his start (6.2 FP) and his ending average (5.7 FP). He is still relatively young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. His fantasy production is stable and he is not as volatile as most players based on a below average standard deviation. Our projected ceiling for Nola when he 'goes off' is 20 fantasy points (his average is 6.6FPs).
STATISTICAL IMPROVEMENT OVER LAST SEASON
He has demonstrated the solid year-to-year improvement that you look for in a younger player. His average Fantasy points increased by 164% this season.
WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP
He has averaged 8.4 fantasy points per week and had 10 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 8 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.
DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP
His FanDuel average was 41.4 points and on DraftKings it was 22.7 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 8.1 and on FanDuel it was 18 fantasy points. His DraftKings ceiling was 31.6 fantasy points and 55 on FanDuel. On FanDuel, he has been consistent with relatively few good or bad games (+/- 20% of average), but on DraftKings he has had more bad than good games. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.
|Career (5 Seasons)||93||93||569.0||41||28||0||597||155||493||3.35||1.13||0||0|
|Career (5 Seasons)||223||212||56||17||9||628||435||1.4||5||1||7||10.52||0|
|2019 Game Log|