2019 FANTASY OUTLOOK AND PROJECTION: LOOKING GOOD
Luis Severino is projected to be an elite fantasy starting pitcher and worth a high draft pick. In our latest projection he is the #23 starting pitcher based on total projected fantasy points. In 2018, he was owned in 97 percent of leagues and it will be at least this high next season as well. He is projected to average 3.72 fantasy points per game in 29 games. His projected rank for the upcoming season is down from where he finished last season.
SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND
Luis Severino was the number #11 ranked SP. His elite ranking was helped by his higher games played (32). Based on average fantasy points he is the #13 SP. We split his 32 games into 3 segments (start, middle, and end). He peaked early in the season. He averaged 9 FPs in his first 10 games and -0.3 FP in his final 11 games. He is still relatively young, so his late season drop-off should not be an indicator of an overall downward trend heading into next season. His standard deviation divided by his average is 2.24 which is close to the league ratio. He averaged 4.7 FPs, but on any given day his projected ceiling is as high as 18 fantasy points.
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STATISTICAL DROPOFF FROM PREVIOUS SEASON
It is not a good sign to see a drop-off in production in a young player. His fantasy average dropped by 13 percent.
WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP
He has averaged 5.7 fantasy points per week and had 12 weeks where he exceeded that by 50% and 9 'bad' weeks where he came up 50% short of his average.
DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP
His FanDuel average was 35.3 points and on DraftKings it was 18.5 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was -2.2 and on FanDuel it was 2 fantasy points. He did not have a high ceiling (less than +50% over average). On DraftKings it was 27.9 and on FanDuel it was 49 FPs. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and the same was true on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.