|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Hawks were projected to win 27.2 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 7/20 their projected win total was up to 35.4 before dropping to 20.4 on 11/19. Their current projected win total is 26.3.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Hawks' Season Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 14-30 the Hawks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 11.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 13 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have won 24% of their road games and were expected to win 21%. At home they have a 42% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 35%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-7, 42%) is better than their expected 24% win percentage. In simulations where the Hawks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 32.5% of the time (#28 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 10/8.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.8% (#21 in League). They average 109.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110. On the road they average 107.7 (108.7 expected), and at home 112.8 ppg (111.8 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.8 true FG% (#28 in League). They allow 117.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 117.5. They are allowing 118 (118.2 expected) on the road, and at home 117.6 ppg (116.5 expected).
REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.4 per game (#14 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.8 per game (#30 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 5 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 6%. At #12 in the conference, they are behind the Wizards by 4.5 games. There is only a -0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are ahead of the Knicks by 4 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Knicks. There is only a -0.31 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Hawks are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hawks are playing 7 games, traveling 15144 miles crossing 22 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Atlanta Hawks' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|10||Adams, Jaylen||PG||6-2||190||05/04/1996||0||St. Bonaventure|
|24||Bazemore, Kent||SG||6-5||201||07/01/1989||6||Old Dominion|
|95||Bembry, DeAndre'||SF||6-6||210||07/04/1994||2||St. Joseph's (PA)|
|15||Carter, Vince||SG||6-6||220||01/26/1977||20||North Carolina|
|20||Collins, John||PF||6-10||235||09/23/1997||1||Wake Forest|
|14||Dedmon, DeWayne||C||7-0||245||08/12/1989||5||Antelope Valley Coll. CA (J.C.|