Atlanta
Hawks
Stadium State Farm Arena
24-47 Overall | EASTERN 12th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southeast Division112.5118.5
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  3/1
vs
Chicago
L / 4OT161-168
Sun  3/3
@
Chicago
W123-118
Mon  3/4
@
Miami
L113-114
Wed  3/6
vs
San Antonio
L104-111
Sat  3/9
vs
Brooklyn
L112-114
Sun  3/10
vs
New Orleans
W128-116
Wed  3/13
vs
Memphis
W132-111
Sat  3/16
@
Boston
L120-129
Sun  3/17
@
Orlando
L91-101
Tue  3/19
vs
Houston
7:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 4 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 1-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 15.2%. Their chances of winning their next 4 are 2.1%. With a -1.27 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Bulls. There is only a -0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Hawks are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hawks are playing 6 games, traveling 850 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 19
LIKELY LOSS
32% HOU
--
MAR 21
LIKELY LOSS
31% UTA
--
MAR 23
LIKELY LOSS
36% PHI
--
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
55% @NO
425 miles
MAR 29
CLOSE GAME
40% POR
--
MAR 31
LIKELY LOSS
28% MIL
--
APR 2
LIKELY LOSS
33% @SA
879 miles
APR 3**
LIKELY LOSS
30% PHI
879 miles
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
49% @ORL
403 miles
APR 7
LIKELY LOSS
38% @MIL
670 miles

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 24-47 the Hawks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 21.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 22 good wins vs 6 bad losses. They have won 30% of their road games and were expected to win 23%. At home they have a 38% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 39%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-7, 36%) is better than their expected 34% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Hawks were expected to be a below average team (#28) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. In simulations where the Hawks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.8% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 10/8.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.5% (#17 in League). They average 112.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.1. On the road they average 110.4 (109.5 expected), and at home 114.6 ppg (112.8 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.8 true FG% (#27 in League). They allow 118.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 117.3. They are allowing 118.2 (118.3 expected) on the road, and at home 118.8 ppg (116.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.9 per game (#11 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.6 per game (#30 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 0.6.

The Atlanta Hawks' next game is on March 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Hawks were projected to win 27.2 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 7/20 their projected win total was up to 35.4 before dropping to 20.4 on 11/19. Their current projected win total is 28.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 58% #3 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #11 Easiest

Hawks' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
10 Adams, Jaylen PG6-219005/04/19960St. Bonaventure
1 Anderson, Justin SG6-623011/19/19933Virginia
24 Bazemore, Kent SG6-520107/01/19896Old Dominion
95 Bembry, DeAndre' SF6-621007/04/19942St. Joseph's (PA)
15 Carter, Vince SG6-622001/26/197720North Carolina
20 Collins, John PF6-1023509/23/19971Wake Forest
14 Dedmon, DeWayne C7-024508/12/19895Antelope Valley Coll. CA (J.C.
3 Huerter, Kevin SG6-719008/27/19980Maryland
5 Johnson, B.J. SF6-720012/21/19950Syracuse; La Salle
25 Len, Alex C7-125006/16/19935Maryland
18 Plumlee, Miles C6-1124909/01/19886Duke
22 Poythress, Alex SF6-923509/06/19932Kentucky
6 Spellman, Omari PF6-924507/21/19970Villanova
12 Waller-Prince, Taurean SF6-822003/22/19942Baylor
11 Young, Trae PG6-218009/19/19980Oklahoma
45 Zeller, Tyler C7-025901/17/19906North Carolina