Atlanta
Hawks
Stadium State Farm Arena
3-12 Overall | EASTERN 14th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southeast Division107.8119.1
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
Sacramento
L115-146
Sat  11/3
vs
Miami
W123-118
Tue  11/6
@
Charlotte
L102-113
Wed  11/7
vs
New York
L107-112
Fri  11/9
vs
Detroit
L109-124
Sun  11/11
@
Los Angeles
L106-107
Tue  11/13
@
Golden State
L103-110
Thu  11/15
@
Denver
L93-138
Sat  11/17
@
Indiana
7:00pm
Mon  11/19
vs
Los Angeles
7:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Hawks next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 6 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 1-5 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 18.3%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Bulls by half a game. There is only a -0.11 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are ahead of the Cavaliers by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Cavaliers. There is only a 0.33 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Hawks are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hawks are playing 8 games, traveling 2851 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 17
LIKELY LOSS
25% @IND
427 miles
NOV 19
LIKELY LOSS
27% LAC
--
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
14% TOR
--
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
16% BOS
--
NOV 25
LIKELY LOSS
29% CHA
--
NOV 27
CLOSE GAME
44% @MIA
607 miles
NOV 28**
LIKELY LOSS
36% @CHA
654 miles
NOV 30
LIKELY LOSS
29% @OKC
756 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY LOSS
8% GS
--
DEC 5
CLOSE GAME
45% WAS
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Even at 3-12 the Hawks are just slightly behind their money line projected win total of 5 wins. They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 1-8 road record is -11% lower than expected. Their 2-4 home record is -12% lower. Losers of 6 in a row they have a 54.8% chance of seeing that extend to 8 straight. In simulations where the Hawks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 33.7% of the time (#27 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 10/8.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.3% (#21 in League). They average 107.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111. On the road they average 107.4 (109 expected), and at home 108.3 ppg (114 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.8 true FG% (#27 in League). They allow 119.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 117.1. They are allowing 120.6 (118 expected) on the road, and at home 116.8 ppg (115.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 4.3 per game (#25 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.7 per game (#21 in league).

Sportsline has a free pick on the Atlanta Hawks' next game. They are +12 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Hawks were projected to win 27.2 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 7/20 their projected win total was up to 35.4 before dropping to 22.2 on 10/21. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 23.4 wins. Before the start of their 6 game losing streak they were projected for 28.3 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #15 Toughest

Hawks' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
10 Adams, Jaylen PG6-219005/04/19960St. Bonaventure
1 Anderson, Justin SG6-623011/19/19933Virginia
24 Bazemore, Kent SG6-520107/01/19896Old Dominion
95 Bembry, DeAndre' SF6-621007/04/19942St. Joseph's (PA)
15 Carter, Vince SG6-622001/26/197720North Carolina
20 Collins, John PF6-1023509/23/19971Wake Forest
14 Dedmon, DeWayne C7-024508/12/19895Antelope Valley Coll. CA (J.C.
2 Dorsey, Tyler SG6-518302/18/19961Oregon
5 Hamilton, Daniel SG6-719508/08/19951Connecticut
3 Huerter, Kevin SG6-719008/27/19980Maryland
25 Len, Alex C7-125006/16/19935Maryland
7 Lin, Jeremy PG6-320008/23/19888Harvard
18 Plumlee, Miles C6-1124909/01/19886Duke
22 Poythress, Alex SF6-923509/06/19932Kentucky
6 Spellman, Omari PF6-924507/21/19970Villanova
12 Waller-Prince, Taurean SF6-822003/22/19942Baylor
11 Young, Trae PG6-218009/19/19980Oklahoma