|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|L / 4OT161-168|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 4 games is not good. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 1-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 15.2%. Their chances of winning their next 4 are 2.1%. With a -1.27 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Bulls. There is only a -0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Hawks are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hawks are playing 6 games, traveling 850 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
At 24-47 the Hawks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 21.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 22 good wins vs 6 bad losses. They have won 30% of their road games and were expected to win 23%. At home they have a 38% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 39%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-7, 36%) is better than their expected 34% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Hawks were expected to be a below average team (#28) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. In simulations where the Hawks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 46.8% of the time (#20 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 10/8.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.5% (#17 in League). They average 112.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.1. On the road they average 110.4 (109.5 expected), and at home 114.6 ppg (112.8 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.8 true FG% (#27 in League). They allow 118.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 117.3. They are allowing 118.2 (118.3 expected) on the road, and at home 118.8 ppg (116.3 expected).
REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.9 per game (#11 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.6 per game (#30 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 0.6.
The Atlanta Hawks' next game is on March 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
Before the season, the Hawks were projected to win 27.2 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 7/20 their projected win total was up to 35.4 before dropping to 20.4 on 11/19. Their current projected win total is 28.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Hawks' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|10||Adams, Jaylen||PG||6-2||190||05/04/1996||0||St. Bonaventure|
|24||Bazemore, Kent||SG||6-5||201||07/01/1989||6||Old Dominion|
|95||Bembry, DeAndre'||SF||6-6||210||07/04/1994||2||St. Joseph's (PA)|
|15||Carter, Vince||SG||6-6||220||01/26/1977||20||North Carolina|
|20||Collins, John||PF||6-10||235||09/23/1997||1||Wake Forest|
|14||Dedmon, DeWayne||C||7-0||245||08/12/1989||5||Antelope Valley Coll. CA (J.C.|
|5||Johnson, B.J.||SF||6-7||200||12/21/1995||0||Syracuse; La Salle|
|45||Zeller, Tyler||C||7-0||259||01/17/1990||6||North Carolina|