|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Celtics are championship contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.7% chance of winning it all. On 12/11 they had an 18.7% chance before dropping to 0.5% on 2/28. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 3.1%. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (60%). They have a 63% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 27.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 26.7% chance of winning the East (11/4) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the Finals 13.2% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Celtics' Championship Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 43-27 Celtics 'should have' 46 wins. They have 20 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 58%. At home they have a 72% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 72%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is under their expected 62% win percentage. The Celtics are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #11 in the league back on 3/5.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.9% (#9 in League). The team has improved to 59.7% in their last 7 games. They average 112.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.5. On the road they average 110.3 (109.6 expected), and at home 115.1 ppg (113.2 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55 true FG% (#9 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 58.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 107.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 106.5. They are allowing 108.4 (107.1 expected) on the road, and at home 106.6 ppg (105.9 expected).
REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.9 per game (#20 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.2 per game (#3 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 7%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the Pacers by one game. With a +0.81 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Pistons. Their projected wins (2.95) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Celtics are the 10th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Celtics are playing 8 games, traveling 3283 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Celtics' next game. They are -3.5 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|46||Baynes, Aron||C||6-10||260||12/09/1986||6||Washington State|
|50||Dozier, PJ||PG||6-6||205||10/25/1996||1||South Carolina|
|28||Hunter, R.J.||SG||6-5||185||10/24/1993||3||Georgia State|
|37||Ojeleye, Semi||PF||6-7||241||12/05/1994||1||Duke; Southern Methodist|
|36||Smart, Marcus||PG||6-4||220||03/06/1994||4||Oklahoma State|
|27||Theis, Daniel||PF||6-8||243||04/04/1992||1||No College|
|44||Williams, Robert||C||6-10||240||10/17/1997||0||Texas A&M|
|30||Yabusele, Guerschon||PF||6-8||260||12/17/1995||1||No College|