|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|W / OT116-109|
|W / OT123-116|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Celtics are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.7% chance of winning it all. On 10/19 they had a 17.5% chance before dropping to 4.8% on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.5%. They have an 8.8% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (82%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 68% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 35.8%. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the East (7/4) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 17.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Celtics' Championship Forecast Changes
Stream Boston games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-6 the Celtics are behind their money line projected win total of 8.8 wins. They have 2 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 0 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 4-5 road record is -12% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Celtics playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 61.4% of the time (#4 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #3 winning 66.8%.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.6% (#26 in League). They average 105.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.7. On the road they average 105.2 (106.3 expected), and at home 106.2 ppg (110.3 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 52.3 true FG% (#2 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 55.7% in their last 7 games. They allow 101.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 103.8. They are allowing 105.2 (104.6 expected) on the road, and at home 96 ppg (102.2 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.5 per game (#19 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.2 per game (#5 in league).
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Celtics next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 6.7%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Bucks by 2 games. They have a +0.52 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are in a battle with Pacers in the conference. With a +0.97 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Celtics are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Celtics are playing 7 games, traveling 9140 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Boston Celtics' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|46||Baynes, Aron||C||6-10||260||12/09/1986||6||Washington State|
|50||Dozier, PJ||PG||6-6||205||10/25/1996||1||South Carolina|
|45||Lemon Jr., Walter||PG||6-3||180||07/26/1992||1||Bradley|
|37||Ojeleye, Semi||PF||6-7||241||12/05/1994||1||Duke; Southern Methodist|
|36||Smart, Marcus||PG||6-4||220||03/06/1994||4||Oklahoma State|
|27||Theis, Daniel||PF||6-8||243||04/04/1992||1||No College|
|44||Williams, Robert||C||6-10||240||10/17/1997||0||Texas A&M|
|30||Yabusele, Guerschon||PF||6-8||260||12/17/1995||1||No College|