|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Celtics are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.7% chance of winning it all. On 12/11 they had an 18.7% chance before dropping to 4.5% on 1/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.5%. They have a 2% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (48%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 54% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 32.1%. Based on the odds, they have a 41.7% chance of winning the East (7/5) and a 14.3% chance of winning it all (6/1). In simulations they make the Finals 17.8% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Celtics' Championship Forecast Changes
Stream Boston games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 26-18 Celtics 'should have' 28 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 10-13 road record is -14% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is under their expected 63% win percentage. We have simulated the Celtics playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.2% of the time (#6 in the league). Their peak rank was #2 in the league back on 12/10.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.4% (#9 in League). They average 111.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110. On the road they average 109.8 (108.2 expected), and at home 114 ppg (111.9 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.4 true FG% (#3 in League). They allow 105.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.2. They are allowing 108 (105.7 expected) on the road, and at home 103.2 ppg (104.5 expected).
REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.6 per game (#19 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.6 per game (#3 in league).
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Celtics next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 9.9%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the 76ers by 3 games. They have a +1.44 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Nets by 4 games. With a +1.27 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Celtics are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Celtics are playing 8 games, traveling 2062 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Celtics' next game. They are -10.5 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|46||Baynes, Aron||C||6-10||260||12/09/1986||6||Washington State|
|50||Dozier, PJ||PG||6-6||205||10/25/1996||1||South Carolina|
|37||Ojeleye, Semi||PF||6-7||241||12/05/1994||1||Duke; Southern Methodist|
|36||Smart, Marcus||PG||6-4||220||03/06/1994||4||Oklahoma State|
|27||Theis, Daniel||PF||6-8||243||04/04/1992||1||No College|
|44||Williams, Robert||C||6-10||240||10/17/1997||0||Texas A&M|
|30||Yabusele, Guerschon||PF||6-8||260||12/17/1995||1||No College|