Boston
Celtics
Stadium TD Garden
43-28 Overall | EASTERN 5th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Atlantic Division112.7107.6
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  3/1
vs
Washington
W107-96
Sun  3/3
vs
Houston
L104-115
Tue  3/5
@
Golden State
W128-95
Wed  3/6
@
Sacramento
W111-109
Sat  3/9
@
Los Angeles
W120-107
Mon  3/11
@
Los Angeles
L115-140
Thu  3/14
vs
Sacramento
W126-120
Sat  3/16
vs
Atlanta
W129-120
Mon  3/18
vs
Denver
L105-114
Wed  3/20
@
Philadelphia
ESPN7:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Celtics are championship contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.7% chance of winning it all. On 12/11 they had an 18.7% chance before dropping to 0.5% on 2/28. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 3.1%. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (60%). They have a 63% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 27.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 26.7% chance of winning the East (11/4) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the Finals 13.2% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #8 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #5 Easiest

Celtics' Championship Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 43-27 Celtics 'should have' 46 wins. They have 20 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 58%. At home they have a 72% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 72%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is under their expected 62% win percentage. The Celtics are a good team (in simulations) and won 58.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #11 in the league back on 3/5.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.9% (#9 in League). The team has improved to 59.7% in their last 7 games. They average 112.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.5. On the road they average 110.3 (109.6 expected), and at home 115.1 ppg (113.2 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55 true FG% (#9 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 58.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 107.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 106.5. They are allowing 108.4 (107.1 expected) on the road, and at home 106.6 ppg (105.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.9 per game (#20 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.2 per game (#3 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 7%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the Pacers by one game. With a +0.81 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Pistons. Their projected wins (2.95) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Celtics are the 10th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Celtics are playing 8 games, traveling 3283 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 18
CLOSE GAME
57% DEN
--
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
46% @PHI
274 miles
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
57% @CHA
722 miles
MAR 24**
LIKELY WIN
66% SA
722 miles
MAR 26
LIKELY WIN
70% @CLE
550 miles
MAR 29
LIKELY WIN
65% IND
--
MAR 30**
CLOSE GAME
54% @BKN
191 miles
APR 1
CLOSE GAME
51% MIA
--
APR 3
CLOSE GAME
55% @MIA
1259 miles
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
38% @IND
806 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Celtics' next game. They are -3.5 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
46 Baynes, Aron C6-1026012/09/19866Washington State
7 Brown, Jaylen SG6-722010/24/19962California
50 Dozier, PJ PG6-620510/25/19961South Carolina
20 Hayward, Gordon SF6-822503/23/19908Butler
42 Horford, Al C6-1024506/03/198611Florida
28 Hunter, R.J. SG6-518510/24/19933Georgia State
11 Irving, Kyrie PG6-319303/23/19927Duke
13 Morris, Marcus PF6-923509/02/19897Kansas
37 Ojeleye, Semi PF6-724112/05/19941Duke; Southern Methodist
12 Rozier, Terry PG6-119003/17/19943Louisville
36 Smart, Marcus PG6-422003/06/19944Oklahoma State
0 Tatum, Jayson SF6-820803/03/19981Duke
27 Theis, Daniel PF6-824304/04/19921No College
9 Wanamaker, Brad PG6-421007/25/19890Pittsburgh
44 Williams, Robert C6-1024010/17/19970Texas A&M
30 Yabusele, Guerschon PF6-826012/17/19951No College