Boston
Celtics
Stadium TD Garden
27-18 Overall | EASTERN 5th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Atlantic Division112.0105.9
Schedule
Regular season
Wed  1/2
vs
Minnesota
W115-102
Fri  1/4
vs
Dallas
W114-93
Mon  1/7
vs
Brooklyn
W116-95
Wed  1/9
vs
Indiana
W135-108
Thu  1/10
@
Miami
L99-115
Sat  1/12
@
Orlando
L103-105
Mon  1/14
@
Brooklyn
L102-109
Wed  1/16
vs
Toronto
W117-108
Fri  1/18
vs
Memphis
W122-116
Sat  1/19
@
Atlanta
7:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Celtics are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.7% chance of winning it all. On 12/11 they had an 18.7% chance before dropping to 4.5% on 1/6. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.5%. They have a 2% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (48%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 54% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 32.1%. Based on the odds, they have a 41.7% chance of winning the East (7/5) and a 14.3% chance of winning it all (6/1). In simulations they make the Finals 17.8% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #14 Easiest

Celtics' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 26-18 Celtics 'should have' 28 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 10-13 road record is -14% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is under their expected 63% win percentage. We have simulated the Celtics playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.2% of the time (#6 in the league). Their peak rank was #2 in the league back on 12/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.4% (#9 in League). They average 111.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110. On the road they average 109.8 (108.2 expected), and at home 114 ppg (111.9 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.4 true FG% (#3 in League). They allow 105.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.2. They are allowing 108 (105.7 expected) on the road, and at home 103.2 ppg (104.5 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.6 per game (#19 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.6 per game (#3 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Celtics next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 9.9%. At #5 in the conference, they are behind the 76ers by 3 games. They have a +1.44 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Nets by 4 games. With a +1.27 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Celtics are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Celtics are playing 8 games, traveling 2062 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #29 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY WIN
76% MEM
--
JAN 19**
LIKELY WIN
72% @ATL
937 miles
JAN 21
LIKELY WIN
65% MIA
--
JAN 23
LIKELY WIN
86% CLE
--
JAN 26
CLOSE GAME
47% GS
--
JAN 28
LIKELY WIN
71% BKN
--
JAN 30
LIKELY WIN
81% CHA
--
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
58% @NY
188 miles
FEB 3
LIKELY WIN
68% OKC
--
FEB 5
LIKELY WIN
78% @CLE
550 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Boston Celtics' next game. They are -10.5 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
46 Baynes, Aron C6-1026012/09/19866Washington State
26 Bird, Jabari SG6-619807/03/19941California
7 Brown, Jaylen SG6-722010/24/19962California
50 Dozier, PJ PG6-620510/25/19961South Carolina
20 Hayward, Gordon SF6-822503/23/19908Butler
42 Horford, Al C6-1024506/03/198611Florida
11 Irving, Kyrie PG6-319303/23/19927Duke
13 Morris, Marcus PF6-923509/02/19897Kansas
37 Ojeleye, Semi PF6-724112/05/19941Duke; Southern Methodist
12 Rozier, Terry PG6-119003/17/19943Louisville
36 Smart, Marcus PG6-422003/06/19944Oklahoma State
0 Tatum, Jayson SF6-820803/03/19981Duke
27 Theis, Daniel PF6-824304/04/19921No College
9 Wanamaker, Brad PG6-421007/25/19890Pittsburgh
44 Williams, Robert C6-1024010/17/19970Texas A&M
30 Yabusele, Guerschon PF6-826012/17/19951No College