Boston
Celtics
Stadium TD Garden
9-6 Overall | EASTERN 4th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Atlantic Division106.7102.9
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
Milwaukee
W117-113
Sat  11/3
@
Indiana
L101-102
Mon  11/5
@
Denver
L107-115
Thu  11/8
@
Phoenix
W / OT116-109
Fri  11/9
@
Utah
L115-123
Sun  11/11
@
Portland
L94-100
Wed  11/14
vs
Chicago
W111-82
Fri  11/16
vs
Toronto
W / OT123-116
Sat  11/17
vs
Utah
NBAt7:30pm
Mon  11/19
@
Charlotte
7:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Celtics are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 10.7% chance of winning it all. On 10/19 they had a 17.5% chance before dropping to 4.8% on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.5%. They have an 8.8% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (82%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 68% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 35.8%. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the East (7/4) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 17.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #6 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #14 Toughest

Celtics' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-6 the Celtics are behind their money line projected win total of 8.8 wins. They have 2 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 0 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 4-5 road record is -12% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the Celtics playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 61.4% of the time (#4 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #3 winning 66.8%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.6% (#26 in League). They average 105.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.7. On the road they average 105.2 (106.3 expected), and at home 106.2 ppg (110.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 52.3 true FG% (#2 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 55.7% in their last 7 games. They allow 101.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 103.8. They are allowing 105.2 (104.6 expected) on the road, and at home 96 ppg (102.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.5 per game (#19 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.2 per game (#5 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Celtics next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 6.7%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Bucks by 2 games. They have a +0.52 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are in a battle with Pacers in the conference. With a +0.97 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Celtics are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Celtics are playing 7 games, traveling 9140 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 16
CLOSE GAME
55% TOR
--
NOV 17**
CLOSE GAME
60% UTA
--
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
51% @CHA
722 miles
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
74% NY
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
84% @ATL
937 miles
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
62% @DAL
721 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY WIN
63% @NO
1360 miles
NOV 30
LIKELY WIN
80% CLE
--
DEC 1**
CLOSE GAME
57% @MIN
1122 miles
DEC 6
LIKELY WIN
72% NY
--

The Boston Celtics' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
46 Baynes, Aron C6-1026012/09/19866Washington State
26 Bird, Jabari SG6-619807/03/19941California
7 Brown, Jaylen SG6-722010/24/19962California
50 Dozier, PJ PG6-620510/25/19961South Carolina
20 Hayward, Gordon SF6-822503/23/19908Butler
42 Horford, Al C6-1024506/03/198611Florida
11 Irving, Kyrie PG6-319303/23/19927Duke
45 Lemon Jr., Walter PG6-318007/26/19921Bradley
13 Morris, Marcus PF6-923509/02/19897Kansas
37 Ojeleye, Semi PF6-724112/05/19941Duke; Southern Methodist
12 Rozier, Terry PG6-119003/17/19943Louisville
36 Smart, Marcus PG6-422003/06/19944Oklahoma State
0 Tatum, Jayson SF6-820803/03/19981Duke
27 Theis, Daniel PF6-824304/04/19921No College
9 Wanamaker, Brad PG6-421007/25/19890Pittsburgh
44 Williams, Robert C6-1024010/17/19970Texas A&M
30 Yabusele, Guerschon PF6-826012/17/19951No College