LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Hornets are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 12.2% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/22 they had a 6.4% chance before increasing to 97.6% on 11/13. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 25.7%. Before the start of their 2 game winning streak they were at 16.4%. They have a 6.7% chance of winning their division. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 3% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 0.4%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #9 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #9 Easiest

Hornets' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 21-23 Hornets 'should have' 23 wins. They have 11 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 6-15 road record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-6, 45%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In simulations where the Hornets played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 41.3% of the time (#23 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 11/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.5% (#18 in League). They average 112.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.2. On the road they average 111.2 (110.5 expected), and at home 112.8 ppg (113.7 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.2 true FG% (#19 in League). They allow 111.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.1. They are allowing 115.5 (113 expected) on the road, and at home 107.7 ppg (109.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.5 per game (#21 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 3.6.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.6 per game (#8 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -2.

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Hornets next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 4 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 5.8%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Heat by one game. With a -1.64 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Pistons by 1.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Pistons. There is only a -0.22 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Hornets are the 8th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hornets are playing 7 games, traveling 4662 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 19
CLOSE GAME
57% PHO
--
JAN 20**
LIKELY LOSS
20% @IND
428 miles
JAN 23
LIKELY LOSS
37% @MEM
521 miles
JAN 25
LIKELY LOSS
20% @MIL
660 miles
JAN 28
CLOSE GAME
62% NY
--
JAN 30
LIKELY LOSS
19% @BOS
722 miles
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
49% MEM
--
FEB 2**
CLOSE GAME
59% CHI
--
FEB 5
LIKELY WIN
63% LAC
--
FEB 6**
LIKELY LOSS
31% @DAL
930 miles

The Charlotte Hornets' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.