LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Hornets are contenders to win the conference and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had under a 1% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 7/13 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 5.5% on 11/11. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.5%. They have a 79.4% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #7 in the conference) and have a 89% chance of making the playoffs. They have a very slim chance (

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #10 Easiest

Hornets' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-7 the Hornets are behind their money line projected win total of 7.7 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins but they also have 3 bad losses. They have won 38% of their road games and were expected to win 46%. At home they have a 67% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 68%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-5, 50%) is under their expected 62% win percentage. The Hornets should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #24 in the league back on 7/13.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56% (#12 in League). They average 114.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.8. On the road they average 110.8 (110.6 expected), and at home 119.7 ppg (115.6 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.5 true FG% (#12 in League). They allow 109.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.1. They are allowing 111.6 (111.9 expected) on the road, and at home 106.5 ppg (110 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.5 per game (#20 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 3 per game (#3 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 14.9%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.2%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Pistons by half a game. With a +0.51 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Magic by half a game. With a +1.35 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Hornets are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hornets are playing 8 games, traveling 2334 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 17
LIKELY WIN
65% PHI
--
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
47% BOS
--
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
53% IND
--
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
31% @OKC
940 miles
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
71% @ATL
227 miles
NOV 26**
CLOSE GAME
55% MIL
227 miles
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
64% ATL
--
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
58% UTA
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
56% NO
--
DEC 5
LIKELY LOSS
36% @MIN
940 miles

According to Sportsline the Charlotte Hornets are -131 favorites but we see this as a pick with a lot of value based on the latest Sportsline.com game forecast which simulates each game 10,000 times to determine their real chances of winning.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.