SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 31-39 Hornets 'should have' 35 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 11 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 10-24 road record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-7, 30%. In simulations where the Hornets played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 39.9% of the time (#25 in the league). Their peak rank was #11 in the league back on 11/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.2% (#20 in League). The team shooting has declined to 52.4% in their last 7 games. They average 110.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.5. On the road they average 108.1 (109.4 expected), and at home 112.5 ppg (113.5 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.7 true FG% (#22 in League). They allow 111.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.3. They are allowing 114.6 (113 expected) on the road, and at home 108.8 ppg (109.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.5 per game (#22 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.9 per game (#10 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Hornets next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 8.4%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.1%. At #10 in the conference, they are behind the Magic by 1.5 games. With a -0.9 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Wizards by 1.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Wizards. There is only a -0.39 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Hornets are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Hornets are playing 8 games, traveling 14092 miles crossing 17 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 21
CLOSE GAME
56% MIN
--
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
41% BOS
--
MAR 24**
LIKELY LOSS
23% @TOR
588 miles
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
52% SA
--
MAR 29
LIKELY LOSS
30% @LAL
2119 miles
MAR 31
LIKELY LOSS
20% @GS
2288 miles
APR 1**
LIKELY LOSS
26% @UTA
589 miles
APR 3
LIKELY LOSS
35% @NO
650 miles
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
39% TOR
--
APR 7
LIKELY LOSS
28% @DET
533 miles

The Charlotte Hornets' next game is on March 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Hornets were projected to win 34.3 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 7/23 their projected win total was 30.5 before increasing to 46.2 on 11/12. Their current projected win total is 35.2. They have a 1.1% chance of winning their division. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#10 in the conference) and only have a 2% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.1% (800/1 odds) and a 0% chance of winning it all (2000/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #9 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #14 Toughest

Hornets' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.