SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Even at 4-13 the Bulls are just slightly behind their money line projected win total of 5 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins vs 0 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 2-7 home record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 4 in a row they have a 33% chance of seeing that extend to 6 straight. In simulations where the Bulls played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 25.7% of the time (#30 in the league). Their peak rank was #25 in the league back on 10/12.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.3% (#28 in League). The team shooting has declined to 49.7% in their last 7 games. They average 103.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 106.7. On the road they average 102.5 (106.7 expected), and at home 103.6 ppg (106.7 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.2 true FG% (#18 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (113.5) than expected (114.1). They are allowing 114.8 (116 expected) on the road, and at home 112.3 ppg (112.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 8.6 per game (#30 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1 per game (#19 in league).

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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Bulls next 5 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 5 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 1-4 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 17.2%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Knicks by half a game. With a -0.93 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Hawks by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Hawks. Their projected wins (1.53) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bulls are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bulls are playing 7 games, traveling 3222 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
50% PHO
--
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
34% MIA
--
NOV 24**
LIKELY LOSS
17% @MIN
354 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY LOSS
37% SA
--
NOV 28
LIKELY LOSS
18% @MIL
81 miles
NOV 30
LIKELY LOSS
25% @DET
234 miles
DEC 1**
LIKELY LOSS
18% @HOU
881 miles
DEC 4
LIKELY LOSS
14% @IND
167 miles
DEC 7
LIKELY LOSS
25% OKC
--
DEC 8**
LIKELY LOSS
18% BOS
--

The Chicago Bulls' next game is on November 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Bulls were projected to win 21.2 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 7/1 their projected win total was 17.8 before increasing to 29.2 on 10/12. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 19.4 wins. Before the start of their 4 game losing streak they were projected for 22.3 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #9 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 56% #5 Toughest

Bulls' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.