NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Cavaliers next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 6.8%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Bulls by 1.5 games. Their projected wins (1.81) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Knicks by 3 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Knicks. There is only a 0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Cavaliers are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Cavaliers are playing 8 games, traveling 6981 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
LIKELY LOSS
36% DET
--
MAR 20
LIKELY LOSS
24% MIL
--
MAR 22
CLOSE GAME
51% LAC
--
MAR 24
LIKELY LOSS
23% @MIL
336 miles
MAR 26
LIKELY LOSS
30% BOS
--
MAR 28
LIKELY LOSS
19% @SA
1256 miles
MAR 30
CLOSE GAME
40% @LAC
2049 miles
APR 1
LIKELY WIN
74% @PHO
1748 miles
APR 4
LIKELY LOSS
34% @SAC
2099 miles
APR 5**
LIKELY LOSS
20% @GS
72 miles

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Even at 17-53 the Cavaliers are just slightly behind their money line projected win total of 18 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 5 bad losses. They have won 17% of their road games and were expected to win 19%. At home they have a 31% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 33%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 48.6% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. Cavaliers fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #9 in the league in power ranking. In simulations where the Cavaliers played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 37.8% of the time (#26 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 12/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.8% (#29 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (104) than expected (103.9). On the road they average 102.9 (102.5 expected), and at home 105.1 ppg (105.4 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 58.8 true FG% (#30 in League). They allow 113.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.8. They are allowing 114.5 (112.9 expected) on the road, and at home 112.3 ppg (110.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.8 per game (#23 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.6 per game (#18 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 1.3.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Cleveland Cavaliers' next game. They are +7.5 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Cavaliers were projected to win 49.8 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 6/20 their projected win total was up to 50.9 before dropping to 15.8 on 11/22. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 21.2 wins.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 55% #6 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Cavaliers' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.