Dallas
Mavericks
Stadium American Airlines Center
20-24 Overall | WESTERN 13th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southwest Division109.8109.5
Schedule
Regular season
Wed  1/2
@
Charlotte
W122-84
Fri  1/4
@
Boston
L93-114
Sat  1/5
@
Philadelphia
L100-106
Mon  1/7
vs
Los Angeles
L97-107
Wed  1/9
vs
Phoenix
W104-94
Fri  1/11
@
Minnesota
W119-115
Sun  1/13
vs
Golden State
L114-119
Wed  1/16
vs
San Antonio
L101-105
Sat  1/19
@
Indiana
7:00pm
Mon  1/21
@
Milwaukee
2:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 20-24 the Mavericks have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 19.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 11 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 16-6 home record is +19% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-7, 42%) is under their expected 46% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Mavericks were expected to be a below average team (#24) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Mavericks should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.8% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 6/20.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56% (#15 in League). The team shooting has declined to 53.1% in their last 7 games. They average 109.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 109.1. On the road they average 107.8 (107.6 expected), and at home 111.8 ppg (110.5 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.3 true FG% (#13 in League). They allow 109.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.6. They are allowing 113.1 (112 expected) on the road, and at home 106 ppg (109.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.3 per game (#9 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.5 per game (#24 in league).

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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Mavericks next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 15.8%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.8%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Pelicans by half a game. Their projected wins (2.46) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Grizzlies by one game. With a -0.55 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Mavericks are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mavericks are playing 7 games, traveling 6236 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 19
LIKELY LOSS
29% @IND
764 miles
JAN 21
LIKELY LOSS
30% @MIL
858 miles
JAN 22**
LIKELY WIN
75% LAC
858 miles
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
58% DET
--
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
55% TOR
--
JAN 30
CLOSE GAME
46% @NY
1374 miles
JAN 31**
CLOSE GAME
44% @DET
1630 miles
FEB 2
LIKELY WIN
70% @CLE
1026 miles
FEB 6
LIKELY WIN
69% CHA
--
FEB 8
CLOSE GAME
51% MIL
--

The Dallas Mavericks' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Mavericks are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/15 they had a 0.2% chance before increasing to 45.4% on 7/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 15.8%. They have a 2.5% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #8 Toughest

Mavericks' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
37 Antetokounmpo, Kostas PF6-1020011/20/19970Dayton
5 Barea, J.J. PG6-018506/26/198412Northeastern
40 Barnes, Harrison SF6-822505/30/19926North Carolina
45 Broekhoff, Ryan SG6-721508/23/19900Valparaiso
13 Brunson, Jalen PG6-319008/31/19960Villanova
77 Doncic, Luka SF6-721802/28/19990No College
10 Finney-Smith, Dorian SF6-822005/04/19932Virginia Tech; Florida
34 Harris, Devin PG6-318502/27/198314Wisconsin
6 Jordan, DeAndre C6-1126507/21/198810Texas A&M
42 Kleber, Maxi PF6-1124001/29/19921No College
3 Macon, Daryl SG6-318511/29/19950Arkansas
23 Matthews, Wesley SG6-522010/14/19869Marquette
50 Mejri, Salah C7-223506/15/19863No College
41 Nowitzki, Dirk PF7-024506/19/197820No College
7 Powell, Dwight PF6-1124007/20/19914Stanford
1 Smith Jr., Dennis, PG6-319511/25/19970North Carolina State
26 Spalding, Ray PF6-1021503/11/19970Louisville