|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 5 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 10.1%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.1%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Rockets by one game. With a -0.85 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Timberwolves by half a game. With a -1.06 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Mavericks are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mavericks are playing 6 games, traveling 1067 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #30 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 5-8 the Mavericks are behind their money line projected win total of 5.7 wins. They have 3 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 4-2 home record is +14% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-7, 36%) is under their expected 42% win percentage. In simulations where the Mavericks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 43.9% of the time (#22 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 6/20.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.6% (#8 in League). They average 110.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 109.5. On the road they average 105.3 (108.5 expected), and at home 115.8 ppg (110.7 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.9 true FG% (#27 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 54.9% in their last 7 games. They allow 112.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.2. They are allowing 112.9 (112.6 expected) on the road, and at home 112 ppg (109.5 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.3 per game (#11 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2 per game (#24 in league).
According to Sportsline the Dallas Mavericks are +4.5 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Mavericks were projected to win 29.8 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 6/20 their projected win total was 29.4 before increasing to 43.6 on 7/21. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 32.9 wins. The playoffs are not likely with their 0.8% chance and a projected #13 finish in the conference. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Mavericks' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|40||Barnes, Harrison||SF||6-8||225||05/30/1992||6||North Carolina|
|77||Doncic, Luka||SF||6-7||218||02/28/1999||0||No College|
|10||Finney-Smith, Dorian||SF||6-8||220||05/04/1993||2||Virginia Tech; Florida|
|6||Jordan, DeAndre||C||6-11||265||07/21/1988||10||Texas A&M|
|42||Kleber, Maxi||PF||6-11||240||01/29/1992||1||No College|
|50||Mejri, Salah||C||7-2||235||06/15/1986||3||No College|
|41||Nowitzki, Dirk||PF||7-0||245||06/19/1978||20||No College|
|1||Smith Jr., Dennis,||PG||6-3||195||11/25/1997||0||North Carolina State|