Dallas
Mavericks
Stadium American Airlines Center
28-41 Overall | WESTERN 13th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southwest Division107.9109.6
Schedule
Regular season
Sat  3/2
vs
Memphis
L81-111
Mon  3/4
@
Brooklyn
L88-127
Wed  3/6
@
Washington
L123-132
Fri  3/8
@
Orlando
L106-111
Sun  3/10
vs
Houston
L93-94
Tue  3/12
vs
San Antonio
L105-112
Thu  3/14
@
Denver
L99-100
Sat  3/16
vs
Cleveland
W121-116
Mon  3/18
vs
New Orleans
Gametracker
Wed  3/20
@
Portland
10:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Mavericks were projected to win 29.8 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 6/20 their projected win total was 29.4 before increasing to 43.6 on 7/21. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 33.7 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Mavericks' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 28-41 Mavericks 'should have' 30 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 13 good wins vs 9 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 22-13 home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 2-9, 18%. In simulations where the Mavericks played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 45.5% of the time (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 6/20.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.5% (#18 in League). They average 107.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.6. On the road they average 106.8 (107.3 expected), and at home 109 ppg (109.8 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.8 true FG% (#16 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 59.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 109.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.7. They are allowing 112.7 (112.2 expected) on the road, and at home 106.6 ppg (109.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.6 per game (#12 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 2.3.

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.2 per game (#24 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 0.4.

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 6 games is not good. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 15.5%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Pelicans by half a game. There is only a -0.2 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are ahead of the Grizzlies by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Grizzlies. There is only a 0.15 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Mavericks are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mavericks are playing 8 games, traveling 11497 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 18
CLOSE GAME
47% NO
--
MAR 20
LIKELY LOSS
32% @POR
1632 miles
MAR 21**
LIKELY LOSS
37% @SAC
480 miles
MAR 23
LIKELY LOSS
23% @GS
1470 miles
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
57% SAC
--
MAR 28
LIKELY LOSS
37% @MIA
1112 miles
MAR 31
LIKELY LOSS
34% @OKC
189 miles
APR 1**
CLOSE GAME
42% PHI
189 miles
APR 3
CLOSE GAME
60% MIN
--
APR 5
LIKELY WIN
65% MEM
--

According to Sportsline the Dallas Mavericks are -4.5 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
37 Antetokounmpo, Kostas PF6-1020011/20/19970Dayton
5 Barea, J.J. PG6-018506/26/198412Northeastern
45 Broekhoff, Ryan SG6-721508/23/19900Valparaiso
13 Brunson, Jalen PG6-319008/31/19960Villanova
23 Burke, Trey PG6-117511/12/19925Michigan
77 Doncic, Luka SF6-721802/28/19990No College
10 Finney-Smith, Dorian SF6-822005/04/19932Virginia Tech; Florida
11 Hardaway Jr., Tim G6-620503/16/19925Michigan
34 Harris, Devin PG6-318502/27/198314Wisconsin
44 Jackson, Justin SF6-821003/25/19951North Carolina
42 Kleber, Maxi PF6-1124001/29/19921No College
1 Lee, Courtney SG6-521510/03/198510Western Kentucky
3 Macon, Daryl SG6-318511/29/19950Arkansas
50 Mejri, Salah C7-223506/15/19863No College
41 Nowitzki, Dirk PF7-024506/19/197820No College
6 Porzingis, Kristaps PF7-324008/02/19953No College
7 Powell, Dwight PF6-1124007/20/19914Stanford