|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 20-24 the Mavericks have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 19.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 11 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 16-6 home record is +19% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-7, 42%) is under their expected 46% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Mavericks were expected to be a below average team (#24) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Mavericks should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.8% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #26 in the league back on 6/20.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56% (#15 in League). The team shooting has declined to 53.1% in their last 7 games. They average 109.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 109.1. On the road they average 107.8 (107.6 expected), and at home 111.8 ppg (110.5 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.3 true FG% (#13 in League). They allow 109.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.6. They are allowing 113.1 (112 expected) on the road, and at home 106 ppg (109.1 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.3 per game (#9 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.5 per game (#24 in league).
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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Mavericks next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 15.8%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.8%. At #13 in the conference, they are behind the Pelicans by half a game. Their projected wins (2.46) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Grizzlies by one game. With a -0.55 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Mavericks are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Mavericks are playing 7 games, traveling 6236 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #17 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Dallas Mavericks' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Mavericks are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/15 they had a 0.2% chance before increasing to 45.4% on 7/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 15.8%. They have a 2.5% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Mavericks' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|40||Barnes, Harrison||SF||6-8||225||05/30/1992||6||North Carolina|
|77||Doncic, Luka||SF||6-7||218||02/28/1999||0||No College|
|10||Finney-Smith, Dorian||SF||6-8||220||05/04/1993||2||Virginia Tech; Florida|
|6||Jordan, DeAndre||C||6-11||265||07/21/1988||10||Texas A&M|
|42||Kleber, Maxi||PF||6-11||240||01/29/1992||1||No College|
|50||Mejri, Salah||C||7-2||235||06/15/1986||3||No College|
|41||Nowitzki, Dirk||PF||7-0||245||06/19/1978||20||No College|
|1||Smith Jr., Dennis,||PG||6-3||195||11/25/1997||0||North Carolina State|