Denver
Nuggets
Stadium Pepsi Center
10-5 Overall | WESTERN 2nd
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Northwest Division111.1103.2
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
@
Cleveland
W110-91
Sat  11/3
vs
Utah
W103-88
Mon  11/5
vs
Boston
W115-107
Wed  11/7
@
Memphis
L87-89
Fri  11/9
vs
Brooklyn
L110-112
Sun  11/11
vs
Milwaukee
L114-121
Tue  11/13
vs
Houston
L99-109
Thu  11/15
vs
Atlanta
W138-93
Sat  11/17
@
New Orleans
7:00pm
Mon  11/19
@
Milwaukee
8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Nuggets are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 66.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/9 they had a 43% chance before increasing to 96.9% on 11/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 50.8%. They have a 4.3% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #6 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #10 Easiest

Nuggets' Season Forecast Changes

Stream Denver games with SlingTV

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 10-5 the Nuggets have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 10 wins. They have won 60% of their road games and were expected to win 62%. At home they have a 70% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 69%. Over the past 3 weeks they have not played as well going 6-5, 55%. In simulations, the Nuggets are a below average team and won 49.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #14 winning 53.6%.

SportsLine has the best NBA picks and Daily Fantasy Lineups. In the off-season check out our coverage of all major leagues (NFL, MLB, NHL, Horses, NASCAR, and Golf).

STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.9% (#13 in League). They average 111.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.2. On the road they average 105.2 (112.2 expected), and at home 114 ppg (113.6 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.1 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 103.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.6. They are allowing 101.2 (108.1 expected) on the road, and at home 104.2 ppg (107.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +6.9 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.9 per game (#14 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.7.

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 5 more 'toss up' games, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 16.4%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.9%. At #3 in the conference, they are fighting with the Trail Blazers for positioning. With a +0.71 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Thunder by half a game. With a +0.58 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Nuggets are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nuggets are playing 7 games, traveling 6301 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #13 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
60% @NO
1082 miles
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
52% @MIL
914 miles
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
48% @MIN
699 miles
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
69% ORL
--
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
45% @OKC
506 miles
NOV 27
CLOSE GAME
51% LAL
--
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
45% @POR
981 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY LOSS
23% @TOR
1345 miles
DEC 5
CLOSE GAME
59% @ORL
1552 miles
DEC 7
CLOSE GAME
39% @CHA
1358 miles

According to Sportsline the Denver Nuggets are +1.5 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
23 Akoon-Purcell, DeVaughn SG6-620006/05/19930Illinois State
5 Barton, Will SG6-619001/06/19916Memphis
25 Beasley, Malik SG6-519511/26/19962Florida State
3 Craig, Torrey SF6-721512/19/19901South Carolina Upstate
14 Harris, Gary SG6-421009/14/19944Michigan State
41 Hernangomez, Juancho PF6-923009/28/19952No College
15 Jokic, Nikola C7-025002/19/19953No College
20 Lydon, Tyler PF6-1022504/09/19961Syracuse
7 Lyles, Trey PF6-1023411/05/19953Kentucky
4 Millsap, Paul PF6-824602/10/198512Louisiana Tech
11 Morris, Monte PG6-317506/27/19951Iowa State
27 Murray, Jamal PG6-420702/23/19972Kentucky
24 Plumlee, Mason PF6-1123503/05/19905Duke
1 Porter Jr., Michael PF6-1021006/29/19980Missouri
0 Thomas, Isaiah PG5-918502/07/19897Washington
8 Vanderbilt, Jarred PF6-921404/03/19990Kentucky
45 Welsh, Thomas C7-025502/03/19960UCLA