Denver
Nuggets
Stadium Pepsi Center
30-14 Overall | WESTERN 2nd
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Northwest Division111.0106.3
Schedule
Regular season
Tue  1/1
vs
New York
W115-108
Thu  1/3
@
Sacramento
W117-113
Sat  1/5
vs
Charlotte
W123-110
Mon  1/7
@
Houston
L113-125
Tue  1/8
@
Miami
W103-99
Thu  1/10
vs
Los Angeles
W121-100
Sat  1/12
@
Phoenix
L93-102
Sun  1/13
vs
Portland
W116-113
Tue  1/15
vs
Golden State
L111-142
Thu  1/17
vs
Chicago
W135-105
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (37% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 6.8%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Warriors by half a game. Their projected wins (3) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Thunder by 4 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Thunder. There is only a 0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Nuggets are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nuggets are playing 7 games, traveling 4666 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 19
LIKELY WIN
88% CLE
--
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
39% @UTA
371 miles
JAN 25
LIKELY WIN
70% PHO
--
JAN 26**
CLOSE GAME
55% PHI
--
JAN 28
CLOSE GAME
47% @MEM
880 miles
JAN 30
CLOSE GAME
40% @NO
1082 miles
FEB 1
LIKELY WIN
75% HOU
--
FEB 2**
LIKELY LOSS
28% @MIN
699 miles
FEB 4
CLOSE GAME
41% @DET
1147 miles
FEB 6
CLOSE GAME
51% @BKN
1632 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 30-14 the Nuggets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 26.6 wins. They have 11 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 19-4 home record is +16% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-3, 75%) is better than their expected 66% win percentage. The Nuggets should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 50.8% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#17 in the league). Their peak rank was #8 in the league back on 8/28.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.9% (#16 in League). They average 111 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110.8. On the road they average 107.5 (109.8 expected), and at home 114.2 ppg (111.8 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.4 true FG% (#14 in League). They allow 106.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.4. They are allowing 108.9 (108.9 expected) on the road, and at home 104 ppg (106.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.7 per game (#2 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.3 per game (#16 in league).

The Denver Nuggets' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Nuggets were projected to win 44 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 11/18 their projected win total was 42.2 before increasing to 49.5 on 12/6. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 47.9 wins. They have a 45.6% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (72%). They have a 41% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 14.1% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 3.8% (25/1 odds) and a 2% chance of winning it all (50/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #4 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #9 Easiest

Nuggets' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

  • carmeloanthony-101718.jpg
    cbs sports

    Report: Melo has 'multiple options'

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
5 Barton, Will SG6-619001/06/19916Memphis
25 Beasley, Malik SG6-519511/26/19962Florida State
3 Craig, Torrey SF6-721512/19/19901South Carolina Upstate
6 Goodwin, Brandon PG6-218010/02/19950Central Florida; Florida Gulf
14 Harris, Gary SG6-421009/14/19944Michigan State
41 Hernangomez, Juancho PF6-923009/28/19952No College
15 Jokic, Nikola C7-025002/19/19953No College
20 Lydon, Tyler PF6-1022504/09/19961Syracuse
7 Lyles, Trey PF6-1023411/05/19953Kentucky
4 Millsap, Paul PF6-824602/10/198512Louisiana Tech
11 Morris, Monte PG6-317506/27/19951Iowa State
27 Murray, Jamal PG6-420702/23/19972Kentucky
24 Plumlee, Mason PF6-1123503/05/19905Duke
1 Porter Jr., Michael PF6-1021006/29/19980Missouri
0 Thomas, Isaiah PG5-918502/07/19897Washington
8 Vanderbilt, Jarred PF6-921404/03/19990Kentucky
45 Welsh, Thomas C7-025502/03/19960UCLA