Denver
Nuggets
Stadium Pepsi Center
46-22 Overall | WESTERN 2nd
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Northwest Division112.0107.0
Schedule
Regular season
Sat  3/2
vs
New Orleans
L112-120
Mon  3/4
@
San Antonio
L103-104
Wed  3/6
@
Los Angeles
W115-99
Fri  3/8
@
Golden State
L105-122
Tue  3/12
vs
Minnesota
W133-107
Thu  3/14
vs
Dallas
W100-99
Sat  3/16
vs
Indiana
W102-100
Mon  3/18
@
Boston
W114-105
Thu  3/21
@
Washington
7:00pm
Fri  3/22
@
New York
7:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Nuggets are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/2 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 14.2% on 3/17. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 15.3%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 2.6%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 97.5%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 81% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 61.2%. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they make the Finals 24.1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 54% #7 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #11 Easiest

Nuggets' Championship Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

At 46-22 the Nuggets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 42.7 wins. They have 15 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 30-6 home record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is under their expected 68% win percentage. Nuggets fans should appreciate that the team has greatly exceeded their pre-season expectations where they were #14 in the league in power ranking. The Nuggets perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 66.4% of the time (#3 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 12/30 they won just 48.4%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #14 winning 53.6%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56.2% (#13 in League). They average 112 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.3. On the road they average 107.9 (110.5 expected), and at home 115.6 ppg (114 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.8 true FG% (#15 in League). They allow 107 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.1. They are allowing 109.6 (109.7 expected) on the road, and at home 104.8 ppg (106.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.8 per game (#1 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.1 per game (#12 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Nuggets next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 13.6%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.5%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Warriors by one game. With a -0.9 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Rockets by 3 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rockets. There is only a -0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Nuggets are the 9th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nuggets are playing 8 games, traveling 12790 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #5 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 18
CLOSE GAME
43% @BOS
1768 miles
MAR 21
CLOSE GAME
54% @WAS
1493 miles
MAR 22**
LIKELY WIN
72% @NY
206 miles
MAR 24
LIKELY LOSS
34% @IND
1001 miles
MAR 26
LIKELY WIN
77% DET
--
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
43% @HOU
881 miles
MAR 29**
CLOSE GAME
48% @OKC
415 miles
MAR 31
LIKELY WIN
85% WAS
--
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
39% @GS
936 miles
APR 3**
LIKELY WIN
81% SA
936 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Denver Nuggets' next game. They are +3.5 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
5 Barton, Will SG6-619001/06/19916Memphis
25 Beasley, Malik SG6-519511/26/19962Florida State
3 Craig, Torrey SF6-721512/19/19901South Carolina Upstate
6 Goodwin, Brandon PG6-218010/02/19950Central Florida; Florida Gulf
14 Harris, Gary SG6-421009/14/19944Michigan State
41 Hernangomez, Juancho PF6-923009/28/19952No College
15 Jokic, Nikola C7-025002/19/19953No College
20 Lydon, Tyler PF6-1022504/09/19961Syracuse
7 Lyles, Trey PF6-1023411/05/19953Kentucky
4 Millsap, Paul PF6-824602/10/198512Louisiana Tech
11 Morris, Monte PG6-317506/27/19951Iowa State
27 Murray, Jamal PG6-420702/23/19972Kentucky
24 Plumlee, Mason PF6-1123503/05/19905Duke
1 Porter Jr., Michael PF6-1021006/29/19980Missouri
0 Thomas, Isaiah PG5-918502/07/19897Washington
8 Vanderbilt, Jarred PF6-921404/03/19990Kentucky
45 Welsh, Thomas C7-025502/03/19960UCLA