|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Nuggets are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 66.3% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/9 they had a 43% chance before increasing to 96.9% on 11/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 50.8%. They have a 4.3% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Nuggets' Season Forecast Changes
Stream Denver games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 10-5 the Nuggets have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 10 wins. They have won 60% of their road games and were expected to win 62%. At home they have a 70% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 69%. Over the past 3 weeks they have not played as well going 6-5, 55%. In simulations, the Nuggets are a below average team and won 49.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #14 winning 53.6%.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.9% (#13 in League). They average 111.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.2. On the road they average 105.2 (112.2 expected), and at home 114 ppg (113.6 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.1 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 103.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.6. They are allowing 101.2 (108.1 expected) on the road, and at home 104.2 ppg (107.3 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +6.9 per game (#3 in league).
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.9 per game (#14 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.7.
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 5 more 'toss up' games, and 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 16.4%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.9%. At #3 in the conference, they are fighting with the Trail Blazers for positioning. With a +0.71 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Thunder by half a game. With a +0.58 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Nuggets are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Nuggets are playing 7 games, traveling 6301 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #13 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Denver Nuggets are +1.5 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|23||Akoon-Purcell, DeVaughn||SG||6-6||200||06/05/1993||0||Illinois State|
|25||Beasley, Malik||SG||6-5||195||11/26/1996||2||Florida State|
|3||Craig, Torrey||SF||6-7||215||12/19/1990||1||South Carolina Upstate|
|14||Harris, Gary||SG||6-4||210||09/14/1994||4||Michigan State|
|41||Hernangomez, Juancho||PF||6-9||230||09/28/1995||2||No College|
|15||Jokic, Nikola||C||7-0||250||02/19/1995||3||No College|
|4||Millsap, Paul||PF||6-8||246||02/10/1985||12||Louisiana Tech|
|11||Morris, Monte||PG||6-3||175||06/27/1995||1||Iowa State|
|1||Porter Jr., Michael||PF||6-10||210||06/29/1998||0||Missouri|