LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Pistons are contenders to win the conference and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.6% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 11/7 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 7.8% on 3/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.8%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 34% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 15.5%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.3% chance of winning it all (300/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #11 Easiest

Pistons' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 36-33 the Pistons are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 33.6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 13 good wins vs 9 bad losses. They have won 39% of their road games and were expected to win 39%. At home they have a 64% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-3 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.4 wins. The Pistons should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.8% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). They have moved up from #21 in the league back on 1/31.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.4% (#27 in League). They average 107.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.7. On the road they average 104.3 (105.9 expected), and at home 110 ppg (109.4 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.2 true FG% (#19 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (107.6) than expected (108.2). They are allowing 108.1 (109.6 expected) on the road, and at home 107.1 ppg (106.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.7 per game (#10 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.3 per game (#11 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 4 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 7.9%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.1%. Their projected wins (2.97) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Nets by 1.5 games. With a +1.48 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pistons are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pistons are playing 8 games, traveling 8416 miles crossing 20 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
LIKELY WIN
64% @CLE
115 miles
MAR 21
LIKELY WIN
80% @PHO
586 miles
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
44% @POR
981 miles
MAR 24**
LIKELY LOSS
32% @GS
539 miles
MAR 26
LIKELY LOSS
23% @DEN
1147 miles
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
54% ORL
--
MAR 30
CLOSE GAME
58% POR
--
APR 1
LIKELY LOSS
30% @IND
1001 miles
APR 3
CLOSE GAME
61% IND
--
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
43% @OKC
506 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Detroit Pistons' next game. They are -7.5 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.