|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 11.2%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Nuggets by one game. With a +0.9 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Warriors are the 3rd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Warriors are playing 8 games, traveling 11350 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 47-21 Warriors 'should have' 50 wins. They have 18 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 68% of their road games and were expected to win 66%. At home they have a 71% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 80%. Over the past 3 weeks they have not played as well going 5-5, 50%. The Warriors perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 75.6% of the time (#1 in the league). Their peak sim% was 85.8% back on 2/8.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.4% (#1 in League). The team shooting has declined to 56.5% in their last 7 games. They average 117.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 118.2. On the road they average 117.6 (116.7 expected), and at home 118.1 ppg (119.6 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55 true FG% (#10 in League). They allow 111.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.6. They are allowing 110.9 (111.6 expected) on the road, and at home 112.7 ppg (109.7 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.2 per game (#8 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 0.3.
TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.6 per game (#19 in league).
Sportsline has a free pick on the Golden State Warriors' next game. They are -2.5 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Warriors are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 52.1% chance of winning it all. On 7/1 they had a 28.8% chance before increasing to 81.5% on 1/31. Their current chances are at 50.3%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 95% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 82.4%. Based on the odds, they have an 80% chance of winning the West (1/4) and a 71.4% chance of winning it all (2/5). In simulations they make the Finals 61.9% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Warriors' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|23||Green, Draymond||PF||6-7||230||03/04/1990||6||Michigan State|
|21||Jerebko, Jonas||SF||6-10||231||03/02/1987||8||No College|
|1||Lee, Damion||SG||6-6||210||10/21/1992||1||Drexel; Louisville|
|34||Livingston, Shaun||PG||6-7||192||09/11/1985||13||No College|
|28||McKinnie, Alfonzo||SF||6-8||215||09/17/1992||1||Wis.-Green Bay|
|11||Thompson, Klay||SG||6-7||215||02/08/1990||7||Washington State|