|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|L / OT116-121|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 4-1 (39% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 18.2%. At #2 in the conference, they are fighting with the Trail Blazers for positioning. With a +0.93 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Thunder by half a game. With a +0.8 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Warriors are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Warriors are playing 7 games, traveling 8512 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #7 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 12-6 the Warriors are behind their money line projected win total of 13.2 wins. They have 4 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 0 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 4-5 road record is -19% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 45.4% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. We have simulated the Warriors playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 73.3% of the time (#1 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #1 winning 76.5%.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.7% (#2 in League). The team shooting has declined to 54.8% in their last 7 games. They average 116.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 117. On the road they average 113.6 (113 expected), and at home 119.6 ppg (121 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.7 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 110.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.7. They are allowing 111.7 (108.8 expected) on the road, and at home 109.2 ppg (110.6 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.8 per game (#6 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.1.
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2 per game (#24 in league).
The Golden State Warriors' next game is on November 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Warriors are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 52.1% chance of winning it all. On 7/1 they had a 28.8% chance before increasing to 70.9% on 11/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 44.2%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 55.6%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 99.3%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 89% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 73.7%. Based on the odds, they have an 81.8% chance of winning the West (2/9) and a 71.4% chance of winning it all (2/5). In simulations they make the Finals 60.6% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Warriors' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|23||Green, Draymond||PF||6-7||230||03/04/1990||6||Michigan State|
|21||Jerebko, Jonas||SF||6-10||231||03/02/1987||8||No College|
|1||Lee, Damion||SG||6-6||210||10/21/1992||1||Drexel; Louisville|
|34||Livingston, Shaun||PG||6-7||192||09/11/1985||13||No College|
|28||McKinnie, Alfonzo||SF||6-8||215||09/17/1992||1||Wis.-Green Bay|
|11||Thompson, Klay||SG||6-7||215||02/08/1990||7||Washington State|