Golden State
Warriors
Stadium ORACLE Arena
12-6 Overall | WESTERN 2nd
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Pacific Division116.6110.4
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  11/2
vs
Minnesota
W116-99
Mon  11/5
vs
Memphis
W117-101
Thu  11/8
vs
Milwaukee
L111-134
Sat  11/10
vs
Brooklyn
W116-100
Mon  11/12
@
Los Angeles
L / OT116-121
Tue  11/13
vs
Atlanta
W110-103
Thu  11/15
@
Houston
L86-107
Sat  11/17
@
Dallas
L109-112
Sun  11/18
@
San Antonio
L92-104
Wed  11/21
vs
Oklahoma City
ESPN10:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 4-1 (39% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 18.2%. At #2 in the conference, they are fighting with the Trail Blazers for positioning. With a +0.93 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Thunder by half a game. With a +0.8 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Warriors are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Warriors are playing 7 games, traveling 8512 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #7 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
73% OKC
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
74% POR
--
NOV 24**
LIKELY WIN
84% SAC
--
NOV 26
LIKELY WIN
83% ORL
--
NOV 29
CLOSE GAME
45% @TOR
2257 miles
DEC 1
LIKELY WIN
73% @DET
936 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY WIN
92% @ATL
2126 miles
DEC 5
LIKELY WIN
89% @CLE
2154 miles
DEC 7
LIKELY WIN
64% @MIL
1830 miles
DEC 10
LIKELY WIN
79% MIN
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 12-6 the Warriors are behind their money line projected win total of 13.2 wins. They have 4 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 0 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 4-5 road record is -19% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight, but they also have a 45.4% chance of turning things around and winning their next 3 games. We have simulated the Warriors playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 73.3% of the time (#1 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #1 winning 76.5%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.7% (#2 in League). The team shooting has declined to 54.8% in their last 7 games. They average 116.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 117. On the road they average 113.6 (113 expected), and at home 119.6 ppg (121 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.7 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 110.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.7. They are allowing 111.7 (108.8 expected) on the road, and at home 109.2 ppg (110.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.8 per game (#6 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.1.

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2 per game (#24 in league).

The Golden State Warriors' next game is on November 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Warriors are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 52.1% chance of winning it all. On 7/1 they had a 28.8% chance before increasing to 70.9% on 11/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 44.2%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 55.6%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 99.3%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 89% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 73.7%. Based on the odds, they have an 81.8% chance of winning the West (2/9) and a 71.4% chance of winning it all (2/5). In simulations they make the Finals 60.6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #2 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 41% #2 Easiest

Warriors' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

  • kevin-durant-draymond-green-warriors.jpg
    cbs sports

    Dray, KD speak: 'We're moving forward'

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
2 Bell, Jordan PF6-922401/07/19951Oregon
4 Cook, Quinn PG6-217903/23/19932Duke
0 Cousins, DeMarcus C6-1127008/13/19908Kentucky
30 Curry, Stephen PG6-319003/14/19889Davidson
32 Derrickson, Marcus F6-724902/01/19960Georgetown
35 Durant, Kevin SF6-924009/29/198811Texas
10 Evans, Jacob SG6-621006/18/19970Cincinnati
23 Green, Draymond PF6-723003/04/19906Michigan State
9 Iguodala, Andre SG6-621501/28/198414Arizona
21 Jerebko, Jonas SF6-1023103/02/19878No College
15 Jones, Damian C7-024506/30/19952Vanderbilt
1 Lee, Damion SG6-621010/21/19921Drexel; Louisville
34 Livingston, Shaun PG6-719209/11/198513No College
5 Looney, Kevon SF6-922002/06/19963UCLA
28 McKinnie, Alfonzo SF6-821509/17/19921Wis.-Green Bay
11 Thompson, Klay SG6-721502/08/19907Washington State