SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Rockets would have been wise to get over their chemistry issues from last season and just try to win in '19-20 with the same core. But clearly the Harden-Paul relationship was broken. The Rockets had the best record when Paul was healthy for the past 2 seasons. To think that Russell Westbrook would be a better POINT GUARD is crazy. They went from 50 wins to 48 wins after the trade and a lower chance of winning the West. Their odds to win it all are 8/1, 11.1% (#4). Their 6.1% chance is #7 in the league which is not high enough to be a good bet. In simulations, they win the West 11.8% of the time and are not a good value at 5/1, 16.7%. The Rockets are averaging 50.1 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 54.5 wins. At -2500 the Rockets are a good value to make the playoffs with a 96.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 1/4, 80%. They win the division in 69.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #4 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 64% of their games last season so their 53-29 met expectations. They went 41-39-2 against the spread (-190 loss). More of their games came in under (42) than went over (37). They are favored in their upcoming game vs the Milwaukee Bucks. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58% (#2 in League). They average 113.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.3. On the road they average 111 (112.4 expected), and at home 116.8 ppg (114.2 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.9 true FG% (#17 in League). They allow 109.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.9. They are allowing 108.6 (110.4 expected) on the road, and at home 109.7 ppg (107.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.9 per game (#27 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#6 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by James Harden who is projected to be the #1 Guard. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.