|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Rockets are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 9.6% chance of winning it all. On 10/12 they had a 12.9% chance before dropping to 0.2% on 11/2. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.9%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 0.2%. They have an 84.4% chance of winning their division. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#9 in the conference) and only have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (67%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 62% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 33.2%. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the West (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the Finals 12.8% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Rockets' Championship Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-7 the Rockets are behind their money line projected win total of 9.1 wins. They have 6 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 3-4 home record is -21% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-3 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.2 wins. The Rockets perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 62.8% of the time (#4 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 11/10.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.9% (#18 in League). The team has improved to 57.6% in their last 7 games. They average 105.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.7. On the road they average 103.4 (111.2 expected), and at home 107.6 ppg (112.2 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.6 true FG% (#24 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (105.7) than expected (108.1). They are allowing 102 (109 expected) on the road, and at home 109.9 ppg (107.2 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.1 per game (#22 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.1 per game (#11 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Rockets next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 13%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Pelicans by half a game. With a +0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Spurs in the conference. With a +0.72 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rockets are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rockets are playing 8 games, traveling 7866 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Houston Rockets' next game is on November 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|15||Capela, Clint||C||6-10||240||05/18/1994||4||No College|
|8||Ennis III, James||SF||6-7||210||07/01/1990||4||Oxnard; Ventura Coll. CA (J.C.|
|14||Green, Gerald||SG||6-7||205||01/26/1986||11||No College|
|13||Harden, James||SG||6-5||220||08/26/1989||9||Arizona State|
|55||Hartenstein, Isaiah||PF||7-0||249||05/05/1998||0||No College|
|3||Paul, Chris||PG||6-0||175||05/06/1985||13||Wake Forest|
|9||Qi, Zhou||PF||7-1||210||01/16/1996||1||No College|