Houston
Rockets
Stadium Toyota Center
8-7 Overall | WESTERN 10th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southwest Division105.3105.7
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  11/2
@
Brooklyn
W119-111
Sat  11/3
@
Chicago
W96-88
Mon  11/5
@
Indiana
W98-94
Thu  11/8
@
Oklahoma City
L80-98
Sat  11/10
@
San Antonio
L89-96
Sun  11/11
vs
Indiana
W115-103
Tue  11/13
@
Denver
W109-99
Thu  11/15
vs
Golden State
W107-86
Sat  11/17
vs
Sacramento
W132-112
Wed  11/21
vs
Detroit
8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Rockets are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 9.6% chance of winning it all. On 10/12 they had a 12.9% chance before dropping to 0.2% on 11/2. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.9%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 0.2%. They have an 84.4% chance of winning their division. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#9 in the conference) and only have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (67%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 62% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 33.2%. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the West (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the Finals 12.8% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 56% #5 Toughest

Rockets' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-7 the Rockets are behind their money line projected win total of 9.1 wins. They have 6 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 3-4 home record is -21% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-3 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.2 wins. The Rockets perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 62.8% of the time (#4 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 11/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.9% (#18 in League). The team has improved to 57.6% in their last 7 games. They average 105.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.7. On the road they average 103.4 (111.2 expected), and at home 107.6 ppg (112.2 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.6 true FG% (#24 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (105.7) than expected (108.1). They are allowing 102 (109 expected) on the road, and at home 109.9 ppg (107.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.1 per game (#22 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.1 per game (#11 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Rockets next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 13%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Pelicans by half a game. With a +0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Spurs in the conference. With a +0.72 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Rockets are just the 25th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rockets are playing 8 games, traveling 7866 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
54% DET
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
64% @DET
881 miles
NOV 24**
LIKELY WIN
83% @CLE
115 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY WIN
65% @WAS
1220 miles
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
74% DAL
--
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
56% @SA
186 miles
DEC 1**
LIKELY WIN
82% CHI
186 miles
DEC 3
CLOSE GAME
54% @MIN
1060 miles
DEC 6
CLOSE GAME
60% @UTA
1202 miles
DEC 8
CLOSE GAME
57% @DAL
227 miles

The Houston Rockets' next game is on November 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
7 Anthony, Carmelo SF6-824005/29/198415Syracuse
15 Capela, Clint C6-1024005/18/19944No College
1 Carter-Williams, Michael PG6-619010/10/19915Syracuse
0 Chriss, Marquese PF6-1024007/02/19972Washington
6 Clark, Gary PF6-822511/16/19940Cincinnati
12 Edwards, Vincent SF6-822504/05/19960Purdue
8 Ennis III, James SF6-721007/01/19904Oxnard; Ventura Coll. CA (J.C.
10 Gordon, Eric SG6-421512/25/198810Indiana
14 Green, Gerald SG6-720501/26/198611No College
13 Harden, James SG6-522008/26/19899Arizona State
55 Hartenstein, Isaiah PF7-024905/05/19980No College
2 Knight, Brandon PG6-319512/02/19916Kentucky
42 Nene, C6-1125009/13/198216No College
3 Paul, Chris PG6-017505/06/198513Wake Forest
9 Qi, Zhou PF7-121001/16/19961No College
17 Tucker, P.J. SF6-624505/05/19857Texas