Houston
Rockets
Stadium Toyota Center
44-26 Overall | WESTERN 3rd
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southwest Division112.9109.9
Schedule
Regular season
Sun  3/3
@
Boston
W115-104
Tue  3/5
@
Toronto
W107-95
Fri  3/8
vs
Philadelphia
W107-91
Sun  3/10
@
Dallas
W94-93
Mon  3/11
vs
Charlotte
W118-106
Wed  3/13
vs
Golden State
L104-106
Fri  3/15
vs
Phoenix
W108-102
Sun  3/17
vs
Minnesota
W117-102
Tue  3/19
@
Atlanta
7:30pm
Wed  3/20
@
Memphis
8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Rockets are championship contenders but their chances are declining. In our pre-season forecast they had a 9.6% chance of winning it all. On 11/2 they had a 0.2% chance before increasing to 20.9% on 11/21. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 3.5%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 95.9%. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (88%). They have a 66% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 21.1% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the West (5/1) and a 9.1% chance of winning it all (10/1). In simulations they make the Finals 6.8% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Rockets' Championship Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 44-26 the Rockets are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 43.6 wins. They have 21 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 53% of their road games and were expected to win 55%. At home they have a 72% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 69%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 10-1 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 7.8 wins. The Rockets perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 60.6% of the time (#4 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 11/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.7% (#3 in League). They average 112.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.9. On the road they average 109.5 (111.8 expected), and at home 116 ppg (114 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.8 true FG% (#23 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 51.5% in their last 7 games. They allow 109.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 109. They are allowing 108.9 (110.3 expected) on the road, and at home 110.8 ppg (107.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3.5 per game (#26 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#6 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Rockets next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 16.7%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.5%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Nuggets by 3 games. There is only a 0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are ahead of the Trail Blazers by 1.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Trail Blazers. Their projected wins (3.35) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Rockets are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Rockets are playing 7 games, traveling 4321 miles crossing 1 time zone. They rank #22 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 19
LIKELY WIN
68% @ATL
701 miles
MAR 20**
CLOSE GAME
48% @MEM
336 miles
MAR 22
LIKELY WIN
72% SA
--
MAR 24
CLOSE GAME
55% @NO
317 miles
MAR 26
LIKELY LOSS
37% @MIL
1008 miles
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
57% DEN
--
MAR 30
LIKELY WIN
71% SAC
--
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
58% @SAC
1611 miles
APR 3**
CLOSE GAME
60% @LAC
366 miles
APR 5
LIKELY WIN
86% NY
--

The Houston Rockets' next game is on March 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
15 Capela, Clint C6-1024005/18/19944No College
6 Clark, Gary PF6-822511/16/19940Cincinnati
12 Edwards, Vincent SF6-822504/05/19960Purdue
35 Faried, Kenneth PF6-822011/19/19897Morehead State
10 Gordon, Eric SG6-421512/25/198810Indiana
14 Green, Gerald SG6-720501/26/198611No College
13 Harden, James SG6-522008/26/19899Arizona State
55 Hartenstein, Isaiah PF7-024905/05/19980No College
4 House Jr., Danuel SF6-722006/07/19932Houston; Texas A&M
9 Jones, Terrence PF6-925201/09/19925Kentucky
42 Nene, C6-1125009/13/198216No College
3 Paul, Chris PG6-017505/06/198513Wake Forest
25 Rivers, Austin PG6-420008/01/19926Duke
1 Shumpert, Iman SG6-521506/26/19907Georgia Tech
17 Tucker, P.J. SF6-624505/05/19857Texas