SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 38-20 the Pacers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 34 wins. They have won 57% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 73% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 65%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-5, 58%) is better than their expected 55% win percentage. The Pacers are a good team (in simulations) and won 57.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #12 in the league back on 1/29.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56.2% (#14 in League). They average 108.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.6. On the road they average 108.4 (106.9 expected), and at home 107.9 ppg (110.2 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.5 true FG% (#2 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 51.4% in their last 7 games. They allow 102.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.6. They are allowing 107.3 (106.1 expected) on the road, and at home 98.8 ppg (105.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.5 per game (#14 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.8 per game (#6 in league).

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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 3.1%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Raptors by 4.5 games. Their projected wins (3.53) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the 76ers by one game. With a +1.16 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pacers are the 16th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pacers are playing 8 games, traveling 4759 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
FEB 22
LIKELY WIN
68% NO
--
FEB 23**
LIKELY LOSS
34% @WAS
492 miles
FEB 25
CLOSE GAME
51% @DET
1001 miles
FEB 27
CLOSE GAME
47% @DAL
764 miles
FEB 28**
LIKELY WIN
79% MIN
764 miles
MAR 2
LIKELY WIN
74% ORL
--
MAR 5
LIKELY WIN
75% CHI
--
MAR 7
LIKELY LOSS
28% @MIL
245 miles
MAR 10
LIKELY LOSS
35% @PHI
583 miles
MAR 12
LIKELY WIN
91% NY
--

The Indiana Pacers' next game is on February 22. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Pacers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.1% chance of winning it all. On 1/7 they had an 8.4% chance before dropping to 0.4% on 1/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 1.2%. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (76%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 59% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 27.1%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1). In simulations they make the Finals 11.2% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 54% #3 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 45% #1 Easiest

Pacers' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.