NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 4 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (37% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 11%. At #4 in the conference, they are fighting with the 76ers for positioning. With a -1.24 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Celtics by half a game. With a -0.93 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pacers are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pacers are playing 6 games, traveling 3568 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 16
CLOSE GAME
55% MIA
--
NOV 17**
LIKELY WIN
77% ATL
--
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
53% UTA
--
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
51% @CHA
428 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
55% SA
--
NOV 26
CLOSE GAME
56% @UTA
1356 miles
NOV 27**
LIKELY WIN
79% @PHO
507 miles
NOV 29
CLOSE GAME
54% @LAL
1809 miles
DEC 1
LIKELY WIN
64% @SAC
1885 miles
DEC 4
LIKELY WIN
82% CHI
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-6 the Pacers have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 8 wins. They have 4 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 3-3 home record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. The Pacers are a good team (in simulations) and won 57.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). Their peak sim% was 60.6% back on 10/29.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.2% (#10 in League). They average 105.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.6. On the road they average 106.8 (107.5 expected), and at home 104.3 ppg (107.6 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.7 true FG% (#17 in League). They allow 103 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.3. They are allowing 105.6 (106 expected) on the road, and at home 99.5 ppg (104.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.1 per game (#18 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 0.4.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.1 per game (#7 in league).

The Indiana Pacers' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Pacers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.1% chance of winning it all. On 10/24 they had a 3.3% chance before dropping to 1.3% on 10/30. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 1.9%. They have a 9.9% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 98% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (27%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 45% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 18.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 8% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #9 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #11 Easiest

Pacers' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.