SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

It looked like Ricky Rubio was going to go to Indiana immediately after Darren Collison retired. Our projection for the Pacers dropped from 50 to 48 wins because Rubio cannot shoot. By getting Brogden (and Jeremy Lamb) instead they improved to 51 wins despite losing Thaddeus Young and not retaining Bogdanovic. They are a great long-shot value to win the Championship. Their championship odds are 50/1, 2% (#10 best). Even with the juice, the Pacers are a good betting value. Their 7% chance to win the championship (based on simulations) is #5 in the league. They are also a good bet to win the East at 12/1, 7.7%. Their sim chance is 18.2%. The Pacers are averaging 51.1 wins per sim which makes them a solid bet to win over 47.5 games. At -900 the Pacers are a good value to make the playoffs with a 99.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 7/1, 12.5%. They win the division in 35.8% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 48-34 record last season was ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 45.5-36.5. They were not good against the spread going 40-41-1 (-510 loss). More of their games came in under (47) than went over (35). They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Detroit Pistons. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.6% (#13 in League). The team shooting has declined to 51.6% in their last 7 games. They average 108 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.1. On the road they average 107.3 (106.5 expected), and at home 108.7 ppg (109.8 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55 true FG% (#7 in League). They allow 104.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 106.4. They are allowing 108.3 (107.7 expected) on the road, and at home 101 ppg (105.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.2 per game (#21 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.8 per game (#3 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Myles Turner who is projected to be the #15 Center. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.