LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Clippers are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/13 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 1.1% on 11/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 1.1%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 0%. They are projected to finish #4 in the conference and have a 85% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (33%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 36% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 12.9% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1). In simulations they make the Finals 3.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #5 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #8 Toughest

Clippers' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 10-5 the Clippers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 7.4 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins and one bad loss. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-1 home record is +34% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-3, 70%) is better than their expected 51% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Clippers were expected to be a below average team (#25) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Clippers are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 7/13 they won just 28.2%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #25 winning 38.1%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.3% (#3 in League). They average 117.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.4. On the road they average 116.7 (111.7 expected), and at home 117.8 ppg (113 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53 true FG% (#3 in League). They allow 112.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.8. They are allowing 115.6 (113.9 expected) on the road, and at home 109.6 ppg (111.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.9 per game (#13 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.3 per game (#26 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.7%. At #4 in the conference, they are fighting with the Thunder for positioning. With a +0.75 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Grizzlies in the conference. With a +1.17 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Clippers are the 4th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Clippers are playing 8 games, traveling 11834 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #3 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 19
LIKELY WIN
72% @ATL
1936 miles
NOV 20**
CLOSE GAME
51% @WAS
543 miles
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
69% MEM
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NOV 25
LIKELY LOSS
27% @POR
828 miles
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
84% PHO
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NOV 29**
CLOSE GAME
51% @SAC
366 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
38% @DAL
1240 miles
DEC 3**
CLOSE GAME
46% @NO
443 miles
DEC 5
CLOSE GAME
42% @MEM
1603 miles
DEC 8
LIKELY WIN
66% MIA
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Sportsline has a free pick on the LA Clippers' next game. They are -7 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.