|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-6 the Lakers have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 8 wins. They have 4 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 62% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 60%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-3 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.7 wins. In the pre-season, the Lakers were expected to be a below average team (#20) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Lakers are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #22 in the league back on 6/20.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.5% (#8 in League). They average 116.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 118.1. On the road they average 115.2 (117.8 expected), and at home 118.2 ppg (118.3 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.7 true FG% (#13 in League). They allow 115.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.8. They are allowing 111.8 (116.6 expected) on the road, and at home 118.5 ppg (115.3 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.2 per game (#18 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 1.3.
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.2 per game (#16 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -1.
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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 5.4%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Grizzlies by half a game. With a +0.42 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Kings in the conference. With a +0.77 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Lakers are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Lakers are playing 7 games, traveling 12641 miles crossing 17 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The LA Lakers' next game is on November 17. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Lakers are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 6/15 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 39.7% on 7/1. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.5%. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #7 in the conference) and have a 84% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (36%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 46% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 19.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they make the Finals 6.4% of the time.
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Lakers' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|11||Beasley, Michael||PF||6-9||235||01/09/1989||10||Kansas State|
|17||Bonga, Isaac||PG||6-8||180||11/08/1999||0||No College|
|4||Caruso, Alex||SG||6-5||186||02/28/1994||1||Texas A&M|
|5||Chandler, Tyson||C||7-1||240||10/02/1982||17||No College|
|23||James, LeBron||SF||6-8||250||12/30/1984||15||No College|
|19||Williams, Johnathan||PF||6-9||228||05/22/1995||0||Missouri; Gonzaga|
|40||Zubac, Ivica||C||7-1||240||03/18/1997||2||No College|