PLAYOFF FORECAST

If they had combined Mike Conley and Ja Morant they were projected for nearly 37 wins. Without both before the draft they were projected for 30 wins. Morant delivered a big improvement. Our simulations give them a very slim chance of making the playoffs.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 33.5 wins. Their 33 actual wins was below expectation. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 12-29 on the road and were expected to win 13.6. Their 51.2% home win percentage was better than expected (48.6%).

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.8% (#23 in League). They average 103.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 103.5. On the road they average 102.5 (102.5 expected), and at home 104.6 ppg (104.6 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.3 true FG% (#19 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (106.1) than expected (106.4). They are allowing 108.1 (107.9 expected) on the road, and at home 104.2 ppg (104.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.9 per game (#26 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.4 per game (#9 in league).

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Grizzlies in all of their games would be down -366 units. Against the spread, they have lost -720 units risking 110 to win 100 (39-42 ATS). The Grizzlies have lost ATS on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.