NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Grizzlies next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (36% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 10.6%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.1%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Mavericks by half a game. There is only a -0.15 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. With a +0.76 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Grizzlies are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Grizzlies are playing 7 games, traveling 7094 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
52% HOU
--
MAR 22
LIKELY LOSS
34% @ORL
683 miles
MAR 23**
LIKELY WIN
66% MIN
683 miles
MAR 25
CLOSE GAME
41% OKC
--
MAR 27
LIKELY LOSS
23% GS
--
MAR 30
LIKELY WIN
69% @PHO
1261 miles
MAR 31**
LIKELY LOSS
34% @LAC
359 miles
APR 3
LIKELY LOSS
24% @POR
1848 miles
APR 5
LIKELY LOSS
35% @DAL
420 miles
APR 7
CLOSE GAME
56% DAL
--

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 28-42 the Grizzlies are behind their money line projected win total of 29.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 17 good wins vs 13 bad losses. They have won 29% of their road games and were expected to win 34%. At home they have a 51% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 51%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-5, 50%) is better than their expected 41% win percentage. In simulations where the Grizzlies played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 41.7% of the time (#24 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/22.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.7% (#23 in League). The team has improved to 59.3% in their last 7 games. They average 102.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 103.3. On the road they average 101.8 (102.3 expected), and at home 102.5 ppg (104.4 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#18 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (104.6) than expected (105.6). They are allowing 107.2 (107.4 expected) on the road, and at home 101.9 ppg (103.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3.8 per game (#27 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.6 per game (#7 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.4.

The Memphis Grizzlies' next game is on March 20. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Grizzlies were projected to win 29.9 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 10/22 their projected win total was 25.2 before increasing to 42.4 on 12/8. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 32.6 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #11 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Grizzlies' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.