SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-5 the Grizzlies are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 5.4 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 5-1 home record is +26% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is better than their expected 44% win percentage. In simulations where the Grizzlies played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 40.2% of the time (#26 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/22.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.6% (#20 in League). They average 101.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 104.6. On the road they average 96.3 (103.2 expected), and at home 107.3 ppg (106 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#18 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (100.7) than expected (106.2). They are allowing 101.8 (108.8 expected) on the road, and at home 99.5 ppg (103.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 6.3 per game (#28 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 4.9 per game (#1 in league).

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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Grizzlies next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 11.2%. At #7 in the conference, they are fighting with the Spurs for positioning. With a -1.34 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Kings in the conference. With a +0.5 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Grizzlies are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Grizzlies are playing 8 games, traveling 6427 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #18 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 14
LIKELY LOSS
20% @MIL
559 miles
NOV 16
CLOSE GAME
60% SAC
--
NOV 18
LIKELY LOSS
31% @MIN
702 miles
NOV 19**
LIKELY WIN
64% DAL
702 miles
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
26% @SA
629 miles
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
18% @LAC
1603 miles
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
61% NY
--
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
38% TOR
--
NOV 30
LIKELY LOSS
34% @BKN
956 miles
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
14% @PHI
879 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Memphis Grizzlies' next game. They are +9.5 underdogs and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Grizzlies were projected to win 29.9 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 7/13 their projected win total was up to 39.7 before dropping to 25.2 on 10/22. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 34 wins. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #7 in the conference) and have a 2% chance of making the playoffs. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #1 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 40% #4 Easiest

Grizzlies' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.