NEXT 7 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Grizzlies next 7 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 4 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 7 games is a record of 3-4 (31% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 11.8%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Mavericks by one game. With a +0.55 advantage in projected wins over their next 7 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. With a +0.86 advantage in projected wins over their next 7 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Grizzlies are the 10th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Grizzlies are playing 9 games, traveling 3995 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
24% @BOS
1136 miles
JAN 19**
LIKELY LOSS
26% @TOR
430 miles
JAN 21
CLOSE GAME
42% NO
--
JAN 23
LIKELY WIN
63% CHA
--
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
52% SAC
--
JAN 26**
CLOSE GAME
42% IND
--
JAN 28
CLOSE GAME
53% DEN
--
JAN 30
LIKELY LOSS
28% @MIN
702 miles
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
51% @CHA
521 miles
FEB 3
CLOSE GAME
43% @NY
956 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 19-25 the Grizzlies are behind their money line projected win total of 19.6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 10 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have won 35% of their road games and were expected to win 34%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 56.2% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations where the Grizzlies played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 44.9% of the time (#21 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/22.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.7% (#23 in League). The team shooting has declined to 52.1% in their last 7 games. They average 100.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 102.7. On the road they average 100.6 (101.6 expected), and at home 101.2 ppg (103.9 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.1 true FG% (#18 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 58.6% in their last 7 games. Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (103.1) than expected (104.4). They are allowing 105.7 (106.8 expected) on the road, and at home 100.2 ppg (101.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 4.3 per game (#27 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2 per game (#6 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.6.

Sportsline has a free pick on the Memphis Grizzlies' next game. They are +10.5 underdogs and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Grizzlies were projected to win 29.9 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 10/22 their projected win total was 25.2 before increasing to 42.4 on 12/8. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 35.8 wins. The playoffs are not likely with their 1.7% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #4 Toughest

Grizzlies' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.