PLAYOFF FORECAST

Goran Dragic WAS a good player but at this point he is a subpar inefficient lead combo guard. By moving on from him and getting Jimmy Butler the Heat went from a #9 in the East to #6 in the East projection. They have a 26% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 9% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 2.7%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 39 games vs an expected win total of 40.6. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They won 48.8% on the road which was much better than expected (41.4%). They won 19 at home and were expected to win 23.6.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.1% (#26 in League). They average 105.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.1. On the road they average 105.4 (105.7 expected), and at home 106 ppg (108.5 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.7 true FG% (#4 in League). They allow 105.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.2. They are allowing 106.1 (108.4 expected) on the road, and at home 105.8 ppg (106 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.2 per game (#7 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.6 per game (#17 in league).

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Heat in all of their games would have earned a +474 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +120 profit risking 110 to win 100 (43-38 ATS). The Heat have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.