LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Heat are contenders to win the conference and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.2% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 11/1 they had a 4.4% chance before dropping to 0% on 11/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 3.5%. They have a 54.1% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 65% chance of making the playoffs. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 21% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 9.9%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.2% (400/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.6% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 58% #3 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #5 Easiest

Heat's Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

At 33-36 the Heat are behind their money line projected win total of 34.4 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 19 good wins but they also have 19 bad losses. They have come up especially short at home. Their 17-20 home record is -11% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 7-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.7 wins. The Heat are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.6% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#9 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 11/26.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.3% (#28 in League). They average 105.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.1. On the road they average 105.6 (105.6 expected), and at home 105.9 ppg (108.5 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.9 true FG% (#8 in League). They allow 105.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.2. They are allowing 105.3 (108.3 expected) on the road, and at home 106 ppg (106.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.1 per game (#6 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.9 per game (#21 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 2.3.

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Heat next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 4 more 'toss up' games, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 7.8%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Nets by 1.5 games. With a +1.34 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Magic by one game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Magic. There is only a 0.2 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Heat are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Heat are playing 8 games, traveling 10265 miles crossing 5 time zones. They rank #12 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
LIKELY LOSS
37% @OKC
1227 miles
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
39% @SA
1145 miles
MAR 22
LIKELY LOSS
38% @MIL
1271 miles
MAR 23**
CLOSE GAME
56% @WAS
926 miles
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
50% ORL
--
MAR 28
LIKELY WIN
63% DAL
--
MAR 30
LIKELY WIN
73% @NY
1095 miles
APR 1
CLOSE GAME
49% @BOS
1259 miles
APR 3
CLOSE GAME
45% BOS
--
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
52% @MIN
1515 miles

The latest over/under line is 214.5 but in simulations the average total points is quite different and you can visit Sportsline.com to find out what side of the line you want to be on.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.