NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Magic by half a game. With a +0.59 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Nets by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Nets. There is only a -0.41 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Heat are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Heat are playing 6 games, traveling 5885 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 16
CLOSE GAME
49% @IND
1027 miles
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
55% LAL
--
NOV 20
CLOSE GAME
62% BKN
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
66% @CHI
1193 miles
NOV 25
LIKELY LOSS
21% @TOR
1236 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY WIN
62% ATL
--
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
58% NO
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
51% UTA
--
DEC 4
CLOSE GAME
60% ORL
--
DEC 7
LIKELY WIN
71% @PHO
1981 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 6-8 the Heat are behind their money line projected win total of 7.6 wins. They have 6 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 3 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 3-5 home record is -22% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-6, 45%) is under their expected 56% win percentage. In simulations, the Heat are a below average team and won 47.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). Their peak rank was #10 in the league back on 11/1.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.1% (#18 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (111.5) than expected (110.3). On the road they average 114.2 (108.8 expected), and at home 109.5 ppg (111.4 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.6 true FG% (#7 in League). They allow 111.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.5. They are allowing 114.3 (109.3 expected) on the road, and at home 109 ppg (108 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.8 per game (#10 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.3.

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.6 per game (#28 in league).

The Miami Heat's next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Heat are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 11/2 they had a 96.5% chance before dropping to 58.2% on 11/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 62.4%. They have a 13% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 44% #7 Easiest

Heat's Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.