SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 4 teams with 100/1, 1% odds to win the championship. Their simulation based win percentage (0.9%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the East at 40/1, 2.4%. Their sim chance is 3.3%. The Heat are averaging 43.3 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 43.5 wins. At -300 the Heat are a good value to make the playoffs with a 85.7% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 5/6, 54.5%. They win the division in 68.6% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the East.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 49% of their games last season so their 39-43 met expectations. They were solid against the spread going 43-38-1 for (+120 profit). They went over 42 times and came in under 39 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Memphis Grizzlies. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.3% (#26 in League). They average 105.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.1. On the road they average 105.4 (105.7 expected), and at home 106 ppg (108.5 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.8 true FG% (#4 in League). They allow 105.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.2. They are allowing 106.1 (108.4 expected) on the road, and at home 105.8 ppg (106 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.9 per game (#8 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.5 per game (#17 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jimmy Butler who is projected to be the #8 Forward. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.