SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 21-21 the Heat are behind their money line projected win total of 21.2 wins. They have 13 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 53% of their road games and were expected to win 44%. At home they have a 48% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 57%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-5, 50%) is under their expected 58% win percentage. In simulations, the Heat are a below average team and won 49.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #25 in the league back on 11/26.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.5% (#27 in League). They average 106.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.3. On the road they average 106.4 (106.1 expected), and at home 106 ppg (108.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.4 true FG% (#4 in League). They allow 106.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.1. They are allowing 106.7 (108.1 expected) on the road, and at home 105.6 ppg (106.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.2 per game (#10 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.6 per game (#18 in league).

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NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Heat next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 3.7%. At #7 in the conference, they are fighting with the Nets for positioning. With a +0.7 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Hornets by one game. With a +1.64 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Heat are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Heat are playing 8 games, traveling 11002 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
CLOSE GAME
51% @DET
1728 miles
JAN 19**
LIKELY WIN
74% @CHI
234 miles
JAN 21
LIKELY LOSS
35% @BOS
1259 miles
JAN 23
LIKELY WIN
71% LAC
--
JAN 25
LIKELY WIN
75% @CLE
1090 miles
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
53% @NY
1095 miles
JAN 30
LIKELY WIN
77% CHI
--
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
54% OKC
--
FEB 2**
CLOSE GAME
52% IND
--
FEB 5
LIKELY LOSS
38% @POR
2707 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Miami Heat's next game. They are +2 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Heat are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 76.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 11/27 they had an 8.4% chance before increasing to 97.7% on 1/6. Their current chances are at 74.7%. They have a 39.2% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 52% #4 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #4 Easiest

Heat's Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.