Miami
Heat
Stadium AmericanAirlines Arena
31-14 Overall | EASTERN 2nd
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southeast Division112.2108.7
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  1/2
vs
Toronto
W84-76
Fri  1/3
@
Orlando
L85-105
Sun  1/5
vs
Portland
W122-111
Wed  1/8
@
Indiana
W122-108
Fri  1/10
@
Brooklyn
L113-117
Sun  1/12
@
New York
L121-124
Wed  1/15
vs
San Antonio
W106-100
Fri  1/17
@
Oklahoma City
W115-108
Sun  1/19
@
San Antonio
L102-107
Mon  1/20
vs
Sacramento
W / OT118-113
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

They are one of 4 teams with 100/1, 1% odds to win the championship. Their simulation based win percentage (0.9%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the East at 40/1, 2.4%. Their sim chance is 3.4%. The Heat are averaging 43.6 wins per sim which is essentially the same as their futures line of 43.5 wins. At -300 the Heat are a good value to make the playoffs with a 86.6% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 5/6, 54.5%. They win the division in 70.1% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #7 in the East.

For winning picks against the spread, total and money line for all NBA games by our proven computer model and leading handicappers visit SportsLine.com where you can also get fantasy basketball and daily fantasy optimal lineups from CBSSports' Top Experts.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

They were expected to win 49% of their games last season so their 39-43 met expectations. They were solid against the spread going 43-38-1 for (+120 profit). They went over 42 times and came in under 39 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Memphis Grizzlies. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.3% (#26 in League). They average 105.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.1. On the road they average 105.4 (105.7 expected), and at home 106 ppg (108.5 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.8 true FG% (#4 in League). They allow 105.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.2. They are allowing 106.1 (108.4 expected) on the road, and at home 105.8 ppg (106 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.9 per game (#8 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.5 per game (#17 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Jimmy Butler who is projected to be the #8 Forward. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
13 Adebayo, Bam PF6-925507/18/19972Kentucky
17 Alexander, Kyle F6-1122010/21/19960Tennessee
22 Butler, Jimmy SF6-723009/14/19898Marquette
7 Dragic, Goran PG6-319005/06/198611No College
40 Haslem, Udonis PF6-823506/09/198016Florida
14 Herro, Tyler SG6-519501/20/20000Kentucky
16 Johnson, James PF6-724002/20/198710Wake Forest
5 Jones Jr., Derrick SF6-621002/15/19973Nevada-Las Vegas
0 Leonard, Meyers C7-026002/27/19927Illinois
25 Nunn, Kendrick SG6-219008/03/19950Illinois; Oakland University (
4 Okpala, KZ SF6-821504/28/19990Stanford
9 Olynyk, Kelly PF6-1124004/19/19916Gonzaga
55 Robinson, Duncan SG6-721504/22/19941Williams; Michigan
30 Silva, Chris PF6-922309/19/09960South Carolina
2 Vincent, Gabe PG6-320006/14/19960California-Santa Barbara
11 Waiters, Dion SG6-321012/10/19917Syracuse
20 Winslow, Justise SF6-622203/26/19964Duke