REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 40.6 wins. Their 39 actual wins was below expectation. Home court was not an advantage, at least not in terms of meeting expectations. They were OK on the road. They went 20-21 on the road and were expected to win 17. Their 46.3% home win percentage was much worse than expected (57.6%).

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.1% (#26 in League). They average 105.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.1. On the road they average 105.4 (105.7 expected), and at home 106 ppg (108.5 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.7 true FG% (#4 in League). They allow 105.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.2. They are allowing 106.1 (108.4 expected) on the road, and at home 105.8 ppg (106 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.2 per game (#7 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.6 per game (#17 in league).

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Heat in all of their games would have earned a +474 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have delivered a +120 profit risking 110 to win 100 (43-38 ATS). The Heat have turned an ATS profit on the road but have lost at home.