LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Bucks are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/3 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 5.1% on 11/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.6%. They have a 73.7% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (82%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 60% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 24%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 4.8% chance of winning it all (20/1). In simulations they make the Finals 9.1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 44% #1 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 61% #2 Toughest

Bucks' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 11-4 the Bucks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 9.4 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins vs 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-1 home record is +14% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 61% win percentage. The Bucks are a good team (in simulations) and won 57.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 7/20.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.8% (#2 in League). They average 121.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 115.2. On the road they average 119.3 (114.6 expected), and at home 122.8 ppg (115.7 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.1 true FG% (#4 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 57.3% in their last 7 games. They allow 109.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.1. They are allowing 113.6 (114.7 expected) on the road, and at home 106.4 ppg (108 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +7.9 per game (#1 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.5 per game (#26 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Bucks next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 6.1%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Raptors by half a game. With a -1.65 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Celtics by 2 games. With a -1.16 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Bucks are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bucks are playing 7 games, traveling 2415 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
48% DEN
--
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
55% POR
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
79% PHO
--
NOV 24**
LIKELY WIN
66% SA
--
NOV 26
CLOSE GAME
45% @CHA
660 miles
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
82% CHI
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
59% @NY
1095 miles
DEC 5
CLOSE GAME
55% DET
--
DEC 7
LIKELY LOSS
36% GS
--
DEC 9
LIKELY LOSS
27% @TOR
1236 miles

The Milwaukee Bucks' next game is on November 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.