LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Bucks are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/3 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 13.7% on 2/22. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 14.9%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 82% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 56.7%. Based on the odds, they have a 41.7% chance of winning the East (7/5) and a 14.3% chance of winning it all (6/1). In simulations they make the Finals 39.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 45% #5 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #11 Easiest

Bucks' Championship Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 52-18 the Bucks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 48.7 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 68% of their road games and were expected to win 63%. At home they have a 82% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 77%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is under their expected 71% win percentage. Bucks fans should appreciate that the team has greatly exceeded their pre-season expectations where they were #15 in the league in power ranking. The Bucks perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 67% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 7/20.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.3% (#2 in League). They average 117.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 116.5. On the road they average 115.6 (115.7 expected), and at home 120 ppg (117.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.1 true FG% (#1 in League). They allow 108.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 110. They are allowing 109.6 (111.5 expected) on the road, and at home 107.5 ppg (108.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.4 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.3 per game (#15 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 14.5%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Raptors by 3 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Raptors. There is only a 0.35 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bucks are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bucks are playing 8 games, traveling 2433 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 19
LIKELY WIN
68% LAL
--
MAR 20**
LIKELY WIN
76% @CLE
336 miles
MAR 22
LIKELY WIN
62% MIA
--
MAR 24
LIKELY WIN
77% CLE
--
MAR 26
LIKELY WIN
63% HOU
--
MAR 28
LIKELY WIN
84% LAC
--
MAR 31
LIKELY WIN
72% @ATL
670 miles
APR 1**
CLOSE GAME
59% @BKN
747 miles
APR 4
CLOSE GAME
51% @PHI
1019 miles
APR 6
LIKELY WIN
72% BKN
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The Milwaukee Bucks' next game is on March 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.