SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 32-12 the Bucks are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 30 wins. They have 11 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 6 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 60% of their road games and were expected to win 58%. At home they have a 83% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 76%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-2, 82%) is better than their expected 74% win percentage. Bucks fans should appreciate that the team has greatly exceeded their pre-season expectations where they were #15 in the league in power ranking. The Bucks perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 62.3% of the time (#4 in the league). They have moved up from #17 in the league back on 7/20.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.5% (#2 in League). They average 117.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 115.9. On the road they average 114 (114.7 expected), and at home 120.6 ppg (116.9 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.3 true FG% (#1 in League). They allow 107.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.9. They are allowing 109.6 (111.8 expected) on the road, and at home 106 ppg (108.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.8 per game (#1 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.1 per game (#13 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 3.9.

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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Bucks next 4 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 3-1 (42% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 19.7%. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Raptors. There is only a -0.14 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Bucks are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Bucks are playing 6 games, traveling 5722 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 19
LIKELY WIN
73% @ORL
204 miles
JAN 21
LIKELY WIN
70% DAL
--
JAN 25
LIKELY WIN
80% CHA
--
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
50% @OKC
1227 miles
JAN 29
CLOSE GAME
58% @DET
914 miles
JAN 31
LIKELY LOSS
37% @TOR
1236 miles
FEB 2
LIKELY LOSS
37% @WAS
926 miles
FEB 4
LIKELY WIN
66% @BKN
1091 miles
FEB 6
LIKELY WIN
71% WAS
--
FEB 8
CLOSE GAME
49% @DAL
858 miles

The Milwaukee Bucks' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Bucks are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 7/3 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 10.2% on 1/12 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 4.5%. They have an 86.6% chance of winning their division. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 77% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 38.5%. Based on the odds, they have a 20% chance of winning the East (4/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1). In simulations they make the Finals 19% of the time.

Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 48% #9 Easiest

Bucks' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.