Minnesota
Timberwolves
Stadium Target Center
7-10 Overall | WESTERN 14th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Northwest Division109.6114.1
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  11/2
@
Golden State
L99-116
Sun  11/4
@
Portland
L81-111
Mon  11/5
@
Los Angeles
L109-120
Wed  11/7
@
Los Angeles
L110-114
Fri  11/9
@
Sacramento
L110-121
Mon  11/12
vs
Brooklyn
W120-113
Wed  11/14
vs
New Orleans
W107-100
Fri  11/16
vs
Portland
W112-96
Sun  11/18
vs
Memphis
L87-100
Wed  11/21
vs
Denver
8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Timberwolves are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.7% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 10/26 they had a 2.5% chance before dropping to 0% on 10/27. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 2%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 0.2%. They have a 5.5% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 59.7% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. They have a shot (10%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 21% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 7.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #11 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 58% #3 Toughest

Timberwolves' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-9 the Timberwolves have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 6.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-1 home record is +36% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-6, 45%) is better than their expected 41% win percentage. The Timberwolves are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 10/27.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.3% (#21 in League). They average 111 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.6. On the road they average 107.2 (112.4 expected), and at home 114.8 ppg (114.8 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#15 in League). They allow 114.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.8. They are allowing 118.2 (117.2 expected) on the road, and at home 111.6 ppg (114.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 5.3 per game (#27 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.8 per game (#6 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Timberwolves next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 7.3%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Mavericks by half a game. With a +2.36 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Suns by 3.5 games. With a +2.29 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Timberwolves are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Timberwolves are playing 7 games, traveling 3302 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 18
LIKELY WIN
68% MEM
--
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
52% DEN
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
50% @BKN
1020 miles
NOV 24**
LIKELY WIN
83% CHI
1020 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY WIN
70% @CLE
631 miles
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
68% SA
--
DEC 1
CLOSE GAME
46% BOS
--
DEC 3
CLOSE GAME
46% HOU
--
DEC 5
LIKELY WIN
64% CHA
--
DEC 8
LIKELY LOSS
33% @POR
1424 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Minnesota Timberwolves' next game. They are -5 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
31 Bates-Diop, Keita SF6-922901/23/19960Ohio State
8 Bayless, Jerryd PG6-320008/20/198810Arizona
33 Covington, Robert SF6-922512/14/19905Tennessee State
9 Deng, Luol SF6-923704/16/198514Duke
5 Dieng, Gorgui C6-1125201/18/19905Louisville
67 Gibson, Taj PF6-923206/24/19859USC
1 Jones, Tyus PG6-219605/10/19963Duke
7 Nunnally, James SF6-720807/14/19901California-Santa Barbara
20 Okogie, Josh SG6-421209/01/19980Georgia Tech
25 Rose, Derrick PG6-320010/04/19889Memphis
36 Saric, Dario PF6-1022304/08/19942No College
0 Teague, Jeff PG6-219506/10/19889Wake Forest
3 Terrell, Jared SG6-322702/10/19950Rhode Island
43 Tolliver, Anthony PF6-825006/01/198510Creighton
32 Towns, Karl-Anthony C7-024811/15/19953Kentucky
22 Wiggins, Andrew SF6-819402/23/19954Kansas
12 Williams, C.J. SG6-522602/06/19901North Carolina State