|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Timberwolves are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 1.7% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 10/26 they had a 2.5% chance before dropping to 0% on 10/27. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 2%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 0.2%. They have a 5.5% chance of winning their division. The playoffs are not likely with their 59.7% chance and a projected #14 finish in the conference. They have a shot (10%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 21% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 7.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.4% (250/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.7% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Timberwolves' Season Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-9 the Timberwolves have as many wins as were expected. If you add up their per game money line implied probabilities they would have 6.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-1 home record is +36% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-6, 45%) is better than their expected 41% win percentage. The Timberwolves are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 10/27.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.3% (#21 in League). They average 111 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.6. On the road they average 107.2 (112.4 expected), and at home 114.8 ppg (114.8 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#15 in League). They allow 114.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.8. They are allowing 118.2 (117.2 expected) on the road, and at home 111.6 ppg (114.3 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 5.3 per game (#27 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.8 per game (#6 in league).
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Timberwolves next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 7.3%. At #14 in the conference, they are behind the Mavericks by half a game. With a +2.36 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Suns by 3.5 games. With a +2.29 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Timberwolves are just the 26th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Timberwolves are playing 7 games, traveling 3302 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Minnesota Timberwolves' next game. They are -5 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Bates-Diop, Keita||SF||6-9||229||01/23/1996||0||Ohio State|
|33||Covington, Robert||SF||6-9||225||12/14/1990||5||Tennessee State|
|7||Nunnally, James||SF||6-7||208||07/14/1990||1||California-Santa Barbara|
|20||Okogie, Josh||SG||6-4||212||09/01/1998||0||Georgia Tech|
|36||Saric, Dario||PF||6-10||223||04/08/1994||2||No College|
|0||Teague, Jeff||PG||6-2||195||06/10/1988||9||Wake Forest|
|3||Terrell, Jared||SG||6-3||227||02/10/1995||0||Rhode Island|
|12||Williams, C.J.||SG||6-5||226||02/06/1990||1||North Carolina State|