LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

Before the season, the Timberwolves were projected to win 47.2 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 6/20 their projected win total was up to 48.4 before dropping to 34.6 on 10/29. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 37.2 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 59% #2 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Timberwolves' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 32-38 Timberwolves 'should have' 34 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 23-10 home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 40.1% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. In simulations, the Timberwolves are a below average team and won 49.2% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#18 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 10/27.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.1% (#21 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (112.6) than expected (112.3). On the road they average 110.8 (110.6 expected), and at home 114.6 ppg (114.2 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.9 true FG% (#25 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 59.7% in their last 7 games. They allow 113.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.6. They are allowing 117.4 (113.8 expected) on the road, and at home 109.2 ppg (111.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.1 per game (#15 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#5 in league).

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Timberwolves next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (38% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 3.7%. At #10 in the conference, they are behind the Kings by 2.5 games. With a -1.29 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Lakers by one game. With a -0.95 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Timberwolves are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Timberwolves are playing 7 games, traveling 3284 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 19
LIKELY LOSS
32% GS
--
MAR 21
CLOSE GAME
41% @CHA
940 miles
MAR 23
LIKELY LOSS
34% @MEM
702 miles
MAR 26
LIKELY WIN
74% LAC
--
MAR 29
LIKELY LOSS
32% GS
--
MAR 30**
CLOSE GAME
50% PHI
--
APR 1
CLOSE GAME
55% POR
--
APR 3
CLOSE GAME
40% @DAL
864 miles
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
48% MIA
--
APR 7
CLOSE GAME
51% OKC
--

The Minnesota Timberwolves' next game is on March 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.