|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Timberwolves are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 88.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/20 they had a 93.7% chance before dropping to 5% on 10/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 24.7%. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Timberwolves' Season Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 21-23 the Timberwolves are behind their money line projected win total of 21.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 9 good wins but they also have 9 bad losses. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 6-16 road record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is better than their expected 50% win percentage. The Timberwolves should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 10/27.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.7% (#22 in League). They average 111.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.1. On the road they average 109.1 (110.5 expected), and at home 113.9 ppg (113.6 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.4 true FG% (#20 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (111.9) than expected (112.1). They are allowing 116.3 (113.5 expected) on the road, and at home 107.5 ppg (110.6 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.6 per game (#22 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 1.7.
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.4 per game (#5 in league).
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (31% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.1%. At #11 in the conference, they are behind the Kings by 1.5 games. With a +1.33 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Pelicans by half a game. With a +0.84 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Timberwolves are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Timberwolves are playing 7 games, traveling 7578 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #13 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Minnesota Timberwolves are -1 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|31||Bates-Diop, Keita||SF||6-9||229||01/23/1996||0||Ohio State|
|33||Covington, Robert||SF||6-9||225||12/14/1990||5||Tennessee State|
|20||Okogie, Josh||SG||6-4||212||09/01/1998||0||Georgia Tech|
|36||Saric, Dario||PF||6-10||223||04/08/1994||2||No College|
|0||Teague, Jeff||PG||6-2||195||06/10/1988||9||Wake Forest|
|3||Terrell, Jared||SG||6-3||227||02/10/1995||0||Rhode Island|
|12||Williams, C.J.||SG||6-5||226||02/06/1990||1||North Carolina State|