LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Timberwolves are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 88.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/20 they had a 93.7% chance before dropping to 5% on 10/29. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 24.7%. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #2 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Timberwolves' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 21-23 the Timberwolves are behind their money line projected win total of 21.9 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 9 good wins but they also have 9 bad losses. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 6-16 road record is -13% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is better than their expected 50% win percentage. The Timberwolves should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#16 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 10/27.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.7% (#22 in League). They average 111.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.1. On the road they average 109.1 (110.5 expected), and at home 113.9 ppg (113.6 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.4 true FG% (#20 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (111.9) than expected (112.1). They are allowing 116.3 (113.5 expected) on the road, and at home 107.5 ppg (110.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1.6 per game (#22 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 1.7.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.4 per game (#5 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (31% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2.1%. At #11 in the conference, they are behind the Kings by 1.5 games. With a +1.33 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Pelicans by half a game. With a +0.84 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Timberwolves are the 18th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Timberwolves are playing 7 games, traveling 7578 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #13 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
LIKELY WIN
68% SA
--
JAN 20
LIKELY WIN
83% PHO
--
JAN 22
CLOSE GAME
58% @PHO
1280 miles
JAN 24
CLOSE GAME
39% @LAL
1524 miles
JAN 25**
LIKELY LOSS
30% @UTA
582 miles
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
59% UTA
--
JAN 30
LIKELY WIN
72% MEM
--
FEB 2
LIKELY WIN
72% DEN
--
FEB 5
CLOSE GAME
46% @MEM
702 miles
FEB 7
CLOSE GAME
51% @ORL
1311 miles

According to Sportsline the Minnesota Timberwolves are -1 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.