New Orleans
Pelicans
Stadium Smoothie King Center
21-25 Overall | WESTERN 12th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southwest Division117.4115.8
Schedule
Regular season
Wed  1/2
@
Brooklyn
L121-126
Sat  1/5
@
Cleveland
W133-98
Mon  1/7
vs
Memphis
W114-95
Wed  1/9
vs
Cleveland
W140-124
Sat  1/12
@
Minnesota
L106-110
Mon  1/14
@
Los Angeles
W121-117
Wed  1/16
@
Golden State
L140-147
Fri  1/18
@
Portland
L112-128
Mon  1/21
@
Memphis
TNT5:30pm
Wed  1/23
vs
Detroit
8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 6 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2.9%. At #12 in the conference, they are behind the Timberwolves by half a game. With a -0.84 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Mavericks by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mavericks. Their projected wins (2.54) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pelicans are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pelicans are playing 7 games, traveling 4566 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
31% @POR
2062 miles
JAN 21
CLOSE GAME
58% @MEM
359 miles
JAN 23
CLOSE GAME
58% DET
--
JAN 24**
CLOSE GAME
44% @OKC
576 miles
JAN 26
LIKELY WIN
63% SA
--
JAN 29
LIKELY WIN
62% @HOU
317 miles
JAN 30**
CLOSE GAME
60% DEN
317 miles
FEB 2
LIKELY LOSS
37% @SA
503 miles
FEB 4
CLOSE GAME
47% IND
--
FEB 6
LIKELY WIN
77% @CHI
836 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 21-24 Pelicans 'should have' 24 wins. They have 11 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 6-18 road record is -17% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is under their expected 58% win percentage. The Pelicans are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 12/24.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 57.5% (#6 in League). The team has improved to 61.3% in their last 7 games. They average 117.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 115.7. On the road they average 115.6 (115 expected), and at home 119.8 ppg (116.5 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.7 true FG% (#23 in League). They allow 115.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 114.5. They are allowing 117.1 (117.4 expected) on the road, and at home 113.6 ppg (111.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3 per game (#6 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -1 per game (#21 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 1.4.

According to Sportsline the New Orleans Pelicans are +3 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Pelicans are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 88.2% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/27 they had a 99.7% chance before dropping to 5.2% on 12/28. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 46.5%. They have an 12% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #14 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #8 Toughest

Pelicans' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

  • carmeloanthony-101718.jpg
    cbs sports

    Report: Melo has 'multiple options'

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
5 Bluiett, Trevon SG6-619811/04/19940Xavier (Ohio)
2 Clark, Ian SG6-317503/07/19915Belmont University
23 Davis, Anthony PF6-1025303/11/19936Kentucky
13 Diallo, Cheick PF6-922009/13/19962Kansas
10 Frazier, Tim PG6-117011/01/19904Penn State
44 Hill, Solomon SF6-722503/18/19915Arizona
11 Holiday, Jrue PG6-420506/12/19909UCLA
15 Jackson, Frank PG6-320505/04/19980Duke
33 Johnson, Wesley SF6-721507/11/19878Iowa State; Syracuse
21 Miller, Darius SF6-822503/21/19904Kentucky
3 Mirotic, Nikola PF6-1025002/11/19914No College
55 Moore, E'Twaun G6-419102/25/19897Purdue
8 Okafor, Jahlil C6-1127512/15/19953Duke
4 Payton, Elfrid PG6-418502/22/19944Louisiana-Lafayette
30 Randle, Julius PF6-925011/29/19944Kentucky
34 Williams, Kenrich SG6-721012/02/19940New Mexico JC; Texas Christian