|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 6 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, and 3 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (32% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2.9%. At #12 in the conference, they are behind the Timberwolves by half a game. With a -0.84 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Mavericks by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mavericks. Their projected wins (2.54) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pelicans are the 2nd most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pelicans are playing 7 games, traveling 4566 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 21-24 Pelicans 'should have' 24 wins. They have 11 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 5 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 6-18 road record is -17% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is under their expected 58% win percentage. The Pelicans are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 12/24.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 57.5% (#6 in League). The team has improved to 61.3% in their last 7 games. They average 117.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 115.7. On the road they average 115.6 (115 expected), and at home 119.8 ppg (116.5 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.7 true FG% (#23 in League). They allow 115.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 114.5. They are allowing 117.1 (117.4 expected) on the road, and at home 113.6 ppg (111.2 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3 per game (#6 in league).
TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -1 per game (#21 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 1.4.
According to Sportsline the New Orleans Pelicans are +3 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Pelicans are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 88.2% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/27 they had a 99.7% chance before dropping to 5.2% on 12/28. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 46.5%. They have an 12% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Pelicans' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|5||Bluiett, Trevon||SG||6-6||198||11/04/1994||0||Xavier (Ohio)|
|2||Clark, Ian||SG||6-3||175||03/07/1991||5||Belmont University|
|10||Frazier, Tim||PG||6-1||170||11/01/1990||4||Penn State|
|33||Johnson, Wesley||SF||6-7||215||07/11/1987||8||Iowa State; Syracuse|
|3||Mirotic, Nikola||PF||6-10||250||02/11/1991||4||No College|
|34||Williams, Kenrich||SG||6-7||210||12/02/1994||0||New Mexico JC; Texas Christian|