New Orleans
Pelicans
Stadium Smoothie King Center
9-7 Overall | WESTERN 7th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southwest Division118.3116.3
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
@
Portland
L119-132
Sat  11/3
@
San Antonio
L95-109
Mon  11/5
@
Oklahoma City
L116-122
Wed  11/7
vs
Chicago
W107-98
Sat  11/10
vs
Phoenix
W119-99
Mon  11/12
@
Toronto
W126-110
Wed  11/14
@
Minnesota
L100-107
Fri  11/16
vs
New York
W129-124
Sat  11/17
vs
Denver
W125-115
Mon  11/19
vs
San Antonio
8:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Pelicans are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 88.2% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/27 they had a 99.7% chance before dropping to 39.5% on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 46.5%. They have a 10.2% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 54% #8 Toughest

Pelicans' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-7 the Pelicans are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 7.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 2 good wins but they also have 2 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 6-1 home record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 5-7, 42%. The Pelicans should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 11/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.7% (#7 in League). They average 117.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 115.6. On the road they average 114.9 (113.2 expected), and at home 121.1 ppg (118.4 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.4 true FG% (#21 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 53.2% in their last 7 games. They allow 116.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.3. They are allowing 117.4 (119.2 expected) on the road, and at home 115.1 ppg (110.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.8 per game (#4 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.9 per game (#23 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 6 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 6%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Lakers by half a game. With a -1.08 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Kings in the conference. With a +0.86 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pelicans are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pelicans are playing 8 games, traveling 7124 miles crossing 7 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 17
CLOSE GAME
40% DEN
--
NOV 19
CLOSE GAME
52% SA
--
NOV 21
LIKELY LOSS
31% @PHI
1088 miles
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
54% @NY
1172 miles
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
53% @WAS
206 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY LOSS
34% BOS
--
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
70% WAS
--
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
50% @MIA
670 miles
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
44% @CHA
650 miles
DEC 3**
CLOSE GAME
54% LAC
650 miles

According to Sportsline the New Orleans Pelicans are -1.5 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
5 Bluiett, Trevon SG6-619811/04/19940Xavier (Ohio)
2 Clark, Ian SG6-317503/07/19915Belmont University
23 Davis, Anthony PF6-1025303/11/19936Kentucky
13 Diallo, Cheick PF6-922009/13/19962Kansas
10 Frazier, Tim PG6-117011/01/19904Penn State
44 Hill, Solomon SF6-722503/18/19915Arizona
11 Holiday, Jrue PG6-420506/12/19909UCLA
15 Jackson, Frank PG6-320505/04/19980Duke
33 Johnson, Wesley SF6-721507/11/19878Iowa State; Syracuse
21 Miller, Darius SF6-822503/21/19904Kentucky
3 Mirotic, Nikola PF6-1025002/11/19914No College
55 Moore, E'Twaun G6-419102/25/19897Purdue
8 Okafor, Jahlil C6-1127512/15/19953Duke
4 Payton, Elfrid PG6-418502/22/19944Louisiana-Lafayette
30 Randle, Julius PF6-925011/29/19944Kentucky
34 Williams, Kenrich SG6-721012/02/19940New Mexico JC; Texas Christian