|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Pelicans are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 88.2% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/27 they had a 99.7% chance before dropping to 39.5% on 11/12. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 46.5%. They have a 10.2% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Easier
Pelicans' Season Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-7 the Pelicans are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 7.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 2 good wins but they also have 2 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 6-1 home record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 5-7, 42%. The Pelicans should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.7% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #18 in the league back on 11/10.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.7% (#7 in League). They average 117.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 115.6. On the road they average 114.9 (113.2 expected), and at home 121.1 ppg (118.4 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.4 true FG% (#21 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 53.2% in their last 7 games. They allow 116.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.3. They are allowing 117.4 (119.2 expected) on the road, and at home 115.1 ppg (110.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.8 per game (#4 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.9 per game (#23 in league).
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 6 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 6%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Lakers by half a game. With a -1.08 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Kings in the conference. With a +0.86 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pelicans are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pelicans are playing 8 games, traveling 7124 miles crossing 7 time zones. They rank #16 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the New Orleans Pelicans are -1.5 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|5||Bluiett, Trevon||SG||6-6||198||11/04/1994||0||Xavier (Ohio)|
|2||Clark, Ian||SG||6-3||175||03/07/1991||5||Belmont University|
|10||Frazier, Tim||PG||6-1||170||11/01/1990||4||Penn State|
|33||Johnson, Wesley||SF||6-7||215||07/11/1987||8||Iowa State; Syracuse|
|3||Mirotic, Nikola||PF||6-10||250||02/11/1991||4||No College|
|34||Williams, Kenrich||SG||6-7||210||12/02/1994||0||New Mexico JC; Texas Christian|