|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Pelicans next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 18.3%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 3.5%. At #12 in the conference, they are behind the Lakers by 2 games. With a -0.24 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Mavericks by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Mavericks. There is only a 0.2 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Pelicans are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Pelicans are playing 6 games, traveling 1511 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F
Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 30-42 Pelicans 'should have' 34 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 11 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 32% of their road games and were expected to win 39%. At home they have a 51% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 56%. Losers of 6 in a row they have a 24% chance of seeing that extend to 8 straight. The Pelicans should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.6% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #21 in the league back on 2/28.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.5% (#11 in League). The team shooting has declined to 52.8% in their last 7 games. They average 115.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 114.8. On the road they average 115.2 (114.2 expected), and at home 116.4 ppg (115.4 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.5 true FG% (#21 in League). They allow 116 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.6. They are allowing 116.6 (117.7 expected) on the road, and at home 115.4 ppg (113.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.9 per game (#9 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 3.3.
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1 per game (#22 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 2.1.
According to Sportsline the New Orleans Pelicans are +4.5 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
Before the season, the Pelicans were projected to win 47.1 games (average per simulation) and with 10 games remaining, they will obviously not reach that. On 10/22 their projected win total was up to 54.8 before dropping to 35.2 on 3/17. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down significantly to 35.3 wins. Before the start of their 6 game losing streak they were projected for 39.5 wins.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Pelicans' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|9||Bertans, Dairis||SG||6-4||200||09/09/1989||0||No College|
|5||Bluiett, Trevon||SG||6-6||198||11/04/1994||0||Xavier (Ohio)|
|2||Clark, Ian||SG||6-3||175||03/07/1991||5||Belmont University|
|14||Smith, Jason||PF||7-0||240||03/02/1986||10||Colorado State|
|34||Williams, Kenrich||SG||6-7||210||12/02/1994||0||New Mexico JC; Texas Christian|