NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 6 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 4.5%. At #6 in the conference, they are fighting with the Spurs for positioning. With a +0.25 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Jazz by half a game. With a -1.68 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Thunder are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Thunder are playing 7 games, traveling 3522 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
56% TOR
--
MAR 22
CLOSE GAME
44% @TOR
1339 miles
MAR 25
CLOSE GAME
59% @MEM
422 miles
MAR 27
CLOSE GAME
61% IND
--
MAR 29
CLOSE GAME
52% DEN
--
MAR 31
LIKELY WIN
70% DAL
--
APR 2
LIKELY WIN
64% LAL
--
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
55% DET
--
APR 7
CLOSE GAME
47% @MIN
695 miles
APR 9
CLOSE GAME
48% HOU
--

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

At 42-29 the Thunder are behind their money line projected win total of 43.8 wins. They have 22 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 13 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 51% of their road games and were expected to win 53%. At home they have a 68% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 71%. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 24.6% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. The Thunder are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#10 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 6/22.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.5% (#25 in League). The team shooting has declined to 51.3% in their last 7 games. They average 114.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 114.5. On the road they average 113.9 (113.5 expected), and at home 115 ppg (115.5 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.6 true FG% (#14 in League). They allow 110.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.7. They are allowing 112.1 (112.5 expected) on the road, and at home 109.6 ppg (108.7 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.4 per game (#7 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.3 per game (#2 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -1.7.

The latest over/under line is 223 but in simulations the average total points is quite different and you can visit Sportsline.com to find out what side of the line you want to be on.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Thunder are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had under a 1% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 6/22 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 7.1% on 12/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.4%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 2.7%. They have a shot (13%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 34% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 10% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have an 11.1% chance of winning the West (8/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 53% #6 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #14 Toughest

Thunder's Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.