LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Thunder are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 74% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/23 they had a 65.8% chance before increasing to 99.3% on 12/23. From the start of the season to now their chances are up to 84.7%. Before the start of their 2 game losing streak they were at 93.4%. They have a 15.2% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (42%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 40% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 13.5%. Based on the odds, they have a 12.5% chance of winning the West (7/1) and a 6.7% chance of winning it all (14/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 55% #1 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #4 Easiest

Thunder's Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 26-18 Thunder 'should have' 28 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 56%. At home they have a 67% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 72%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 5-6, 45%. The Thunder are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 6/22.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.1% (#24 in League). They average 113.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.6. On the road they average 112.3 (112.7 expected), and at home 114.7 ppg (114.6 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.2 true FG% (#11 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 59.8% in their last 7 games. They allow 108.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.2. They are allowing 109.7 (110.8 expected) on the road, and at home 108 ppg (107.5 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.8 per game (#7 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 5.1.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 3.1 per game (#1 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 3.4%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Nuggets by 4 games. With a -0.38 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Trail Blazers in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Trail Blazers. Their projected wins (2.62) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Thunder are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Thunder are playing 7 games, traveling 7256 miles crossing 6 time zones. They rank #11 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 19
LIKELY LOSS
30% @PHI
1257 miles
JAN 21
CLOSE GAME
54% @NY
1327 miles
JAN 22**
LIKELY WIN
69% POR
1327 miles
JAN 24
CLOSE GAME
56% NO
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JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
50% MIL
--
JAN 29
CLOSE GAME
62% @ORL
1059 miles
FEB 1
CLOSE GAME
46% @MIA
1227 miles
FEB 3
LIKELY LOSS
32% @BOS
1494 miles
FEB 5
LIKELY WIN
79% ORL
--
FEB 7
LIKELY WIN
68% MEM
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The Oklahoma City Thunder's next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.