PLAYOFF FORECAST

The Thunder were projected to win 49 and be one of 7 potential teams with a legit shot to win the West. With Paul George heading to the Clippers the Thunder dropped to a projected #9 in the West with just 41 wins. But after trading Westbrook for Paul they are back up to 45 wins. Houston had the best record after the All-Star Break when Paul was healthy. They struggled when he was out. Paul may not be able to win the championship as the best player on a team, but he is the best POINT GUARD for a young team needed leadership. Of course, the +4 wins IS NOT worth $40 million a year so look for Paul to get traded and the Thunder to fall out of the playoff picture. They have a 20.2% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 6.5% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the West is 1.7%. While not mathematically eliminated they are winning the championship in under 0.1% of simulations.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went worse than expected. They won 49 games vs an expected win total of 51.2. They met expectations on the road. It was at home where they came up short. They went 22-19 on the road and were expected to win 22.3. They won 27 at home and were expected to win 29.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.5% (#25 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (114.5) than expected (114.4). On the road they average 114.5 (113.6 expected), and at home 114.5 ppg (115.2 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56 true FG% (#16 in League). They allow 111.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.4. They are allowing 112.5 (112.3 expected) on the road, and at home 109.6 ppg (108.5 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.2 per game (#6 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.1 per game (#2 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -0.9.

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Thunder in all of their games would be down -163 units. Against the spread, they have lost -90 units risking 110 to win 100 (42-39 ATS). The Thunder have lost ATS on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.