|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Thunder are contenders to win the conference and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had under a 1% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 6/22 they had a 0.3% chance before increasing to 3.6% on 11/9. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.5%. They have a 16.2% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #3 in the conference and have a 89% chance of making the playoffs. They have a shot (48%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 41% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 12.5%. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1). In simulations they win the championship 0.8% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Thunder's Season Forecast Changes
Stream Oklahoma City games with SlingTV
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 9-5 the Thunder are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 7.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins vs 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 6-2 home record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 9-2 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.5 wins. The Thunder are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.5% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 6/22.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.6% (#27 in League). The team has improved to 56.7% in their last 7 games. They average 111 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.2. On the road they average 104.7 (109.4 expected), and at home 115.8 ppg (112.6 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.3 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 105.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.5. They are allowing 105.2 (112 expected) on the road, and at home 106.5 ppg (107.6 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.7 per game (#7 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 3.9 per game (#2 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 5 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 2.7%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Trail Blazers by one game. With a -0.52 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Nuggets in the conference. With a -0.93 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Thunder are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Thunder are playing 6 games, traveling 6271 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #15 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Oklahoma City Thunder's next game is on November 17. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|8||Abrines, Alex||SG||6-6||200||08/01/1993||2||No College|
|30||Burton, Deonte||G||6-5||245||01/31/1994||0||Marquette; Iowa State|
|34||Davis, Tyler||C||6-10||266||05/22/1997||0||Texas A&M|
|2||Felton, Raymond||PG||6-1||205||06/26/1984||13||North Carolina|
|23||Ferguson, Terrance||SG||6-7||190||05/17/1998||1||No College|
|13||George, Paul||SF||6-9||220||05/02/1990||8||Fresno State|
|7||Luwawu-Cabarrot, Timothe||SG||6-6||210||05/09/1995||2||No College|
|11||Nader, Abdel||SF||6-6||225||09/25/1993||1||Northern Illinois; Iowa State|
|17||Schroder, Dennis||PG||6-1||172||09/15/1993||5||No College|