LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

The Magic are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of making the playoffs. On 11/8 they had a 0.2% chance before increasing to 76.1% on 3/3. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 47.4%. They have a 40.7% chance of winning their division. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 11% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 3.9%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.5% (200/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #13 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #11 Easiest

Magic's Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 33-38 the Magic are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 30.7 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 22 good wins vs 12 bad losses. They have won 37% of their road games and were expected to win 36%. At home they have a 56% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 50%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-5, 55%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. In the pre-season, the Magic were expected to be a below average team (#22) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Magic should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 7/9.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54.5% (#26 in League). They average 105.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 106.4. On the road they average 104.2 (105.4 expected), and at home 107.2 ppg (107.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.8 true FG% (#6 in League). They allow 106.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.5. They are allowing 105.6 (109.8 expected) on the road, and at home 106.9 ppg (107.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.2 per game (#18 in league). However, the team has recently outrebounded opponents by 2.6.

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.3 per game (#16 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 0.6.

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Magic next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (36% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 3.4%. At #9 in the conference, they are behind the Heat by one game. With a -0.2 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Hornets by one game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Hornets. There is only a 0.32 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Magic are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Magic are playing 7 games, traveling 6209 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
51% NO
--
MAR 22
LIKELY WIN
66% MEM
--
MAR 25
CLOSE GAME
48% PHI
--
MAR 26**
CLOSE GAME
50% @MIA
204 miles
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
46% @DET
1552 miles
MAR 30
LIKELY LOSS
32% @IND
823 miles
APR 1
CLOSE GAME
39% @TOR
1051 miles
APR 3
LIKELY WIN
82% NY
--
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
51% ATL
--
APR 7
CLOSE GAME
46% @BOS
1117 miles

The Orlando Magic's next game is on March 20. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.