|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Magic are competing to make the playoffs and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 3% chance of making the playoffs. On 11/8 they had a 0.2% chance before increasing to 24% on 11/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 20.2%. They have a 5.4% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Easy
Magic's Season Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-8 the Magic are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 5.5 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 6 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 3-3 road record is +27% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-6, 45%) is better than their expected 40% win percentage. In simulations where the Magic played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 42.1% of the time (#24 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 7/9.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.2% (#28 in League). The team has improved to 57.7% in their last 7 games. They average 104.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 105.6. On the road they average 106.7 (103.2 expected), and at home 102.9 ppg (107.2 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.2 true FG% (#20 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (108.5) than expected (109.9). They are allowing 105.8 (111.6 expected) on the road, and at home 110.3 ppg (108.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 4.5 per game (#26 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.1 per game (#4 in league).
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The Magic next 6 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They have 2 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 8 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (35% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 7.5%. At #8 in the conference, they are behind the Hornets by half a game. With a -1.35 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Nets by half a game. With a -0.58 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Magic are the 11th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Magic are playing 8 games, traveling 19262 miles crossing 24 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Orlando Magic's next game. They are +4.5 underdogs and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|24||Birch, Khem||C||6-9||233||09/28/1992||1||Pittsburgh; Nevada-Las Vegas|
|10||Fournier, Evan||SG||6-7||205||10/29/1992||6||No College|
|22||Grant, Jerian||PG||6-4||205||10/09/1992||3||Notre Dame|
|1||Isaac, Jonathan||PF||6-10||210||10/03/1997||1||Florida State|
|25||Iwundu, Wesley||SF||6-7||195||12/20/1994||1||Kansas State|
|2||Martin, Jarell||PF||6-10||239||05/24/1994||3||Louisiana State|
|21||Mozgov, Timofey||C||7-1||275||07/16/1986||8||No College|
|17||Simmons, Jonathon||SF||6-6||195||09/14/1989||3||Paris JC TX; Midland Coll. TX|