LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Magic were projected to win 31 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 11/3 their projected win total was 26.6 before increasing to 41.1 on 12/18. Their current projected win total is 31.4. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#10 in the conference) and only have a 1% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.5% (200/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Magic's Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 19-25 the Magic are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 17.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have won 33% of their road games and were expected to win 32%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 46%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-7, 42%) is better than their expected 38% win percentage. In simulations where the Magic played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 35% of the time (#26 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 7/9.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54% (#25 in League). They average 103.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 104.6. On the road they average 101.5 (103.5 expected), and at home 105.5 ppg (105.7 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.6 true FG% (#16 in League). They allow 107.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.1. They are allowing 105.7 (109.1 expected) on the road, and at home 109 ppg (107.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.9 per game (#24 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.3 per game (#16 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 6 games is not good. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 14.4%. At #10 in the conference, they are behind the Pistons by half a game. Their projected wins (2.23) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Wizards by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Wizards. There is only a 0.25 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Magic are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Magic are playing 8 games, traveling 4380 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
28% BKN
--
JAN 19**
LIKELY LOSS
27% MIL
--
JAN 21
CLOSE GAME
55% @ATL
403 miles
JAN 23
LIKELY LOSS
33% @BKN
939 miles
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
45% WAS
--
JAN 27
LIKELY LOSS
37% @HOU
848 miles
JAN 29
CLOSE GAME
38% OKC
--
JAN 31
LIKELY LOSS
34% IND
--
FEB 2
CLOSE GAME
48% BKN
--
FEB 5
LIKELY LOSS
21% @OKC
1059 miles

According to Sportsline the Orlando Magic are +1 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.