Orlando
Magic
Stadium Amway Center
19-26 Overall | EASTERN 11th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southeast Division103.8107.7
Schedule
Regular season
Wed  1/2
@
Chicago
W112-84
Fri  1/4
@
Minnesota
L103-120
Sun  1/6
@
Los Angeles
L96-106
Mon  1/7
@
Sacramento
L95-111
Wed  1/9
@
Utah
L93-106
Sat  1/12
vs
Boston
W105-103
Sun  1/13
vs
Houston
W116-109
Wed  1/16
@
Detroit
L / OT115-120
Fri  1/18
vs
Brooklyn
L115-117
Sat  1/19
vs
Milwaukee
7:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Magic were projected to win 31 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 11/3 their projected win total was 26.6 before increasing to 41.1 on 12/18. Their current projected win total is 31.4. They are not projected to finish in the Top 8 (#10 in the conference) and only have a 1% chance of making the playoffs. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the East at 0.5% (200/1 odds) and a 0.2% chance of winning it all (500/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #12 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Magic's Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 19-25 the Magic are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 17.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 14 good wins vs 7 bad losses. They have won 33% of their road games and were expected to win 32%. At home they have a 52% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 46%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (5-7, 42%) is better than their expected 38% win percentage. In simulations where the Magic played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 35% of the time (#26 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 7/9.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 54% (#25 in League). They average 103.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 104.6. On the road they average 101.5 (103.5 expected), and at home 105.5 ppg (105.7 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.6 true FG% (#16 in League). They allow 107.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.1. They are allowing 105.7 (109.1 expected) on the road, and at home 109 ppg (107.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 2.9 per game (#24 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.3 per game (#16 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 6 games is not good. They have 3 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 7 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 2-4 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 14.4%. At #10 in the conference, they are behind the Pistons by half a game. Their projected wins (2.23) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Wizards by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Wizards. There is only a 0.25 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Magic are the 12th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Magic are playing 8 games, traveling 4380 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
28% BKN
--
JAN 19**
LIKELY LOSS
27% MIL
--
JAN 21
CLOSE GAME
55% @ATL
403 miles
JAN 23
LIKELY LOSS
33% @BKN
939 miles
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
45% WAS
--
JAN 27
LIKELY LOSS
37% @HOU
848 miles
JAN 29
CLOSE GAME
38% OKC
--
JAN 31
LIKELY LOSS
34% IND
--
FEB 2
CLOSE GAME
48% BKN
--
FEB 5
LIKELY LOSS
21% @OKC
1059 miles

According to Sportsline the Orlando Magic are +1 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

  • carmeloanthony-101718.jpg
    cbs sports

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Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
14 Augustin, D.J. PG6-018311/10/198710Texas
5 Bamba, Mo C7-022105/12/19980Texas
24 Birch, Khem C6-923309/28/19921Pittsburgh; Nevada-Las Vegas
13 Briscoe, Isaiah PG6-321504/13/19960Kentucky
3 Caupain, Troy PG6-421011/29/19950Cincinnati
10 Fournier, Evan SG6-720510/29/19926No College
35 Frazier, Melvin SG6-620008/30/19960Tulane
00 Gordon, Aaron PF6-922009/16/19954Arizona
22 Grant, Jerian PG6-420510/09/19923Notre Dame
1 Isaac, Jonathan PF6-1021010/03/19971Florida State
25 Iwundu, Wesley SF6-719512/20/19941Kansas State
11 Jefferson, Amile PF6-922205/07/19930Duke
2 Martin, Jarell PF6-1023905/24/19943Louisiana State
21 Mozgov, Timofey C7-127507/16/19868No College
31 Ross, Terrence SG6-720602/05/19916Washington
17 Simmons, Jonathon SF6-619509/14/19893Paris JC TX; Midland Coll. TX
9 Vucevic, Nikola C7-026010/24/19907USC