SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 30-16 the 76ers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 28.5 wins. They have 10 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 6 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 48% of their road games and were expected to win 49%. At home they have a 83% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 75%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-3, 73%) is better than their expected 62% win percentage. We have simulated the 76ers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 63.5% of the time (#3 in the league). They have moved up from #8 in the league back on 11/28.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.8% (#3 in League). The team has improved to 61.1% in their last 7 games. They average 115.5 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.9. On the road they average 111.8 (111.4 expected), and at home 119.1 ppg (116.4 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.7 true FG% (#7 in League). They allow 112.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.1. They are allowing 115.2 (111.8 expected) on the road, and at home 108.9 ppg (108.3 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.3 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.3 per game (#29 in league).

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NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The 76ers next 4 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 3-1 (43% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 19.2%. At #4 in the conference, they are fighting with the Pacers for positioning. With a -0.52 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Celtics by 3 games. With a -1.44 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the 76ers are just the 24th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the 76ers are playing 6 games, traveling 10449 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #9 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 19
LIKELY WIN
70% OKC
--
JAN 21
LIKELY WIN
79% HOU
--
JAN 23
LIKELY WIN
79% SA
--
JAN 26
CLOSE GAME
45% @DEN
1578 miles
JAN 29
CLOSE GAME
52% @LAL
2392 miles
JAN 31
LIKELY LOSS
29% @GS
2509 miles
FEB 2
CLOSE GAME
53% @SAC
2455 miles
FEB 5
LIKELY WIN
72% TOR
--
FEB 8
LIKELY WIN
82% DEN
--
FEB 10
LIKELY WIN
77% LAL
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The Philadelphia 76ers' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The 76ers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.2% chance of winning it all. On 11/8 they had a 1.4% chance before increasing to 8.3% on 12/11. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 5.6%. Before the start of their 3 game winning streak they were at 5%. They have a 10.6% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (88%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 71% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 40.1%. Based on the odds, they have a 16.7% chance of winning the East (5/1) and a 5.9% chance of winning it all (16/1). In simulations they make the Finals 21.1% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #9 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 46% #4 Easiest

76ers' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.