LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The 76ers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.2% chance of winning it all. On 6/15 they had a 7.6% chance before dropping to 1.4% on 11/8. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 6.4%. They have a 7.8% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (84%). They have a 72% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 38.5% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the East (5/2) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 19.9% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #6 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #14 Toughest

76ers' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 9-7 the 76ers are behind their money line projected win total of 9.4 wins. They have 3 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-0 home record is +23% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-5, 58%) is pretty much what was expected of them and mirrors their season overall. We have simulated the 76ers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 62.6% of the time (#3 in the league). They have moved up from #7 in the league back on 11/10.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.3% (#9 in League). The team has improved to 58.8% in their last 7 games. They average 112.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.4. On the road they average 108 (109 expected), and at home 117.9 ppg (116.8 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.4 true FG% (#5 in League). They allow 112.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.6. They are allowing 115.9 (110.6 expected) on the road, and at home 108.9 ppg (108.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.9 per game (#6 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -4 per game (#29 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 9%. At #5 in the conference, they are fighting with the Pacers for positioning. With a +1.29 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Pistons by half a game. With a +2.04 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the 76ers are the 13th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the 76ers are playing 7 games, traveling 1062 miles crossing no time zones. They rank #28 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 16
LIKELY WIN
74% UTA
--
NOV 17**
CLOSE GAME
40% @CHA
448 miles
NOV 19
LIKELY WIN
86% PHO
--
NOV 21
LIKELY WIN
75% NO
--
NOV 23
LIKELY WIN
86% CLE
--
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
53% @BKN
83 miles
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
84% NY
--
NOV 30
LIKELY WIN
88% WAS
--
DEC 2
LIKELY WIN
86% MEM
--
DEC 5
LIKELY LOSS
21% @TOR
338 miles

The Philadelphia 76ers' next game is on November 16. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.