|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 45-25 the 76ers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 42.3 wins. They have 16 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 9 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 52% of their road games and were expected to win 48%. At home they have a 76% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 71%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-3, 70%) is better than their expected 55% win percentage. We have simulated the 76ers playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 60.1% of the time (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #10 in the league back on 2/8.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.6% (#4 in League). The team shooting has declined to 54.7% in their last 7 games. They average 115.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 114.7. On the road they average 112 (112.7 expected), and at home 117.8 ppg (116.5 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.7 true FG% (#3 in League). They allow 111.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.3. They are allowing 114.1 (113.2 expected) on the road, and at home 109.6 ppg (109.6 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.2 per game (#4 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.3 per game (#29 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The 76ers next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 6.5%. At #3 in the conference, they are behind the Raptors by 4 games. With a -1.06 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Pacers by one game. With a +0.78 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the 76ers are the 19th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the 76ers are playing 7 games, traveling 6770 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #18 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
The Philadelphia 76ers' next game is on March 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The 76ers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 8.2% chance of winning it all. On 12/11 they had an 8.3% chance before dropping to 0.3% on 2/10. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 4.3%. Before the start of their 4 game winning streak they were at 2.4%. They have a 1.7% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (95%). Their chances of getting out of the first round is 69% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 35.4%. Based on the odds, they have a 20% chance of winning the East (4/1) and a 5.3% chance of winning it all (18/1). In simulations they make the Finals 16.6% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
76ers' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|11||Ennis III, James||SF||6-7||210||07/01/1990||4||Oxnard; Ventura Coll. CA (J.C.|
|7||Highsmith, Haywood||F||6-7||220||12/09/1996||0||Wheeling Jesuit University|
|5||Johnson, Amir||SF||6-9||240||05/01/1987||13||No College|
|30||Korkmaz, Furkan||SG||6-7||190||07/24/1997||1||No College|
|51||Marjanovic, Boban||C||7-3||290||08/15/1988||3||No College|
|12||McConnell, T.J.||PG||6-2||190||03/25/1992||3||Duquesne; Arizona|
|18||Milton, Shake||SG||6-6||207||09/26/1996||0||Southern Methodist|
|25||Simmons, Ben||PG||6-10||230||07/20/1996||1||Louisiana State|
|14||Simmons, Jonathon||SF||6-6||195||09/14/1989||3||Paris JC TX; Midland Coll. TX|
|8||Smith, Zhaire||SG||6-4||199||06/09/1999||0||Texas Tech|