Phoenix
Suns
Stadium Talking Stick Resort Arena
17-54 Overall | WESTERN 15th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Pacific Division107.2116.1
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  3/1
vs
New Orleans
L116-130
Sat  3/2
vs
Los Angeles
W118-109
Mon  3/4
vs
Milwaukee
W114-105
Wed  3/6
vs
New York
W107-96
Sat  3/9
@
Portland
L120-127
Sun  3/10
@
Golden State
W115-111
Wed  3/13
vs
Utah
L97-114
Fri  3/15
@
Houston
L102-108
Sat  3/16
@
New Orleans
W / OT138-136
Mon  3/18
vs
Chicago
10:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Suns were projected to win 17.6 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 10/20 their projected win total was up to 30.9 before dropping to 16.1 on 2/25. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 19.4 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 44% #3 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 53% #1 Toughest

Suns' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Even at 17-54 the Suns are just slightly behind their money line projected win total of 19 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 16 good wins vs 5 bad losses. They have won 19% of their road games and were expected to win 22%. At home they have a 29% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 32%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 6-5 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 3 wins. In simulations where the Suns played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 22.6% of the time (#30 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #30 winning 24.8%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55% (#22 in League). They average 107.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.7. On the road they average 107.8 (106.9 expected), and at home 106.6 ppg (108.5 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 58.1 true FG% (#29 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 55.2% in their last 7 games. They allow 116.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.4. They are allowing 119.1 (116.3 expected) on the road, and at home 112.7 ppg (114.4 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 6.3 per game (#30 in league).

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.1 per game (#13 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The forecast for their next 5 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 5 games. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 1-4 (40% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 12.6%. With a -0.76 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Suns are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Suns are playing 7 games, traveling 2292 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 18
CLOSE GAME
43% CHI
--
MAR 21
LIKELY LOSS
20% DET
--
MAR 23
LIKELY LOSS
24% @SAC
639 miles
MAR 25
LIKELY LOSS
17% @UTA
507 miles
MAR 27
LIKELY LOSS
37% WAS
--
MAR 30
LIKELY LOSS
31% MEM
--
APR 1
LIKELY LOSS
26% CLE
--
APR 3
LIKELY LOSS
16% UTA
--
APR 5
LIKELY LOSS
15% NO
--
APR 7
LIKELY LOSS
16% @HOU
1016 miles

According to Sportsline the Phoenix Suns are -3 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
22 Ayton, Deandre C7-125007/23/19980Arizona
35 Bender, Dragan PF7-122511/17/19972No College
1 Booker, Devin SG6-621010/30/19963Kentucky
25 Bridges, Mikal SF6-721008/30/19960Villanova
11 Crawford, Jamal SG6-518503/20/198018Michigan
30 Daniels, Troy SG6-420507/15/19915Virginia Commonwealth
0 Evans, Jawun PG6-019007/26/19961Oklahoma State
21 Holmes, Richaun PF6-1023510/15/19933Moraine Valley CC IL; Bowling
20 Jackson, Josh SF6-820002/10/19971Kansas
16 Johnson, Tyler SG6-419005/07/19924Fresno State
8 King, George SF6-622001/15/19940Colorado
14 Melton, De'Anthony PG6-420005/28/19980USC
2 Okobo, Elie PG6-319010/23/19970No College
3 Oubre Jr., Kelly SF6-720512/09/19953Kansas
26 Spalding, Ray PF6-1021503/11/19970Louisville
12 Warren, T.J. SF6-821509/05/19934North Carolina State