NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY

The Suns next 5 game forecast looks rough, to say the least. They are are the clear underdog in 9 out of the 5 games, and just one game where they are expected to be competitive. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 1-4 (41% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 10.2%. At #15 in the conference, they are behind the Timberwolves by 2.5 games. With a -1.85 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Suns are the 14th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Suns are playing 8 games, traveling 12555 miles crossing 13 time zones. They rank #6 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 14
LIKELY LOSS
26% SA
--
NOV 17
LIKELY LOSS
25% OKC
--
NOV 19
LIKELY LOSS
14% @PHI
2080 miles
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
52% @CHI
1451 miles
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
19% @MIL
1981 miles
NOV 25
LIKELY LOSS
37% @DET
586 miles
NOV 27
LIKELY LOSS
21% IND
--
NOV 28**
LIKELY LOSS
18% @LAC
359 miles
NOV 30
LIKELY LOSS
33% ORL
--
DEC 2
LIKELY LOSS
30% @LAL
359 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Even at 2-11 the Suns are just slightly behind their money line projected win total of 3 wins. Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 0-6 road record is -18% lower than their expected win percentage. Losers of 4 in a row they have a 55.5% chance of seeing that extend to 6 straight. In simulations where the Suns played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 30.6% of the time (#28 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 6/20.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 54.8% (#18 in League). They average 101.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 106.1. On the road they average 100 (105 expected), and at home 102.1 ppg (107 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 58.4 true FG% (#30 in League). They allow 114.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 113.9. They are allowing 118.8 (115.2 expected) on the road, and at home 111.1 ppg (112.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3 per game (#22 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -4.5 per game (#30 in league).

According to Sportsline the Phoenix Suns are +5 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

Before the season, the Suns were projected to win 17.6 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 6/20 their projected win total was 17.3 before increasing to 30.9 on 10/20. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 21.1 wins. Before the start of their 4 game losing streak they were projected for 24 wins.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #8 Toughest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 59% #4 Toughest

Suns' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.