|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|W / OT138-136|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Suns were projected to win 17.6 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 10/20 their projected win total was up to 30.9 before dropping to 16.1 on 2/25. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up to 19.4 wins.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Suns' Season Forecast Changes
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
Even at 17-54 the Suns are just slightly behind their money line projected win total of 19 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 16 good wins vs 5 bad losses. They have won 19% of their road games and were expected to win 22%. At home they have a 29% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 32%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 6-5 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 3 wins. In simulations where the Suns played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 22.6% of the time (#30 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #30 winning 24.8%.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55% (#22 in League). They average 107.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.7. On the road they average 107.8 (106.9 expected), and at home 106.6 ppg (108.5 expected).
DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 58.1 true FG% (#29 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 55.2% in their last 7 games. They allow 116.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 115.4. They are allowing 119.1 (116.3 expected) on the road, and at home 112.7 ppg (114.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 6.3 per game (#30 in league).
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.1 per game (#13 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: STORMY
The forecast for their next 5 games is not good. They are the clear underdog in 10 out of the 5 games. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 1-4 (40% chance). Their chances of winning 3 or more are 12.6%. With a -0.76 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Suns are the 12th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Suns are playing 7 games, traveling 2292 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #25 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Phoenix Suns are -3 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|35||Bender, Dragan||PF||7-1||225||11/17/1997||2||No College|
|30||Daniels, Troy||SG||6-4||205||07/15/1991||5||Virginia Commonwealth|
|0||Evans, Jawun||PG||6-0||190||07/26/1996||1||Oklahoma State|
|21||Holmes, Richaun||PF||6-10||235||10/15/1993||3||Moraine Valley CC IL; Bowling|
|16||Johnson, Tyler||SG||6-4||190||05/07/1992||4||Fresno State|
|2||Okobo, Elie||PG||6-3||190||10/23/1997||0||No College|
|3||Oubre Jr., Kelly||SF||6-7||205||12/09/1995||3||Kansas|
|12||Warren, T.J.||SF||6-8||215||09/05/1993||4||North Carolina State|