Portland
Trail Blazers
Stadium Moda Center
42-27 Overall | WESTERN 4th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Northwest Division114.0110.4
Schedule
Regular season
Fri  3/1
@
Toronto
L117-119
Sun  3/3
@
Charlotte
W118-108
Tue  3/5
@
Memphis
L111-120
Thu  3/7
vs
Oklahoma City
L / OT121-129
Sat  3/9
vs
Phoenix
W127-120
Tue  3/12
@
Los Angeles
W125-104
Fri  3/15
@
New Orleans
W122-110
Sat  3/16
@
San Antonio
L103-108
Mon  3/18
vs
Indiana
ESPN10:30pm
Wed  3/20
vs
Dallas
10:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 42-27 the Trail Blazers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 38 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 15 impressive wins where they won as betting underdogs or won big as slight favorites vs 13 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 25-9 home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 60% win percentage. The Trail Blazers are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 12/27.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.6% (#10 in League). They average 114 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.9. On the road they average 110.9 (110.8 expected), and at home 117.1 ppg (113 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.2 true FG% (#11 in League). They allow 110.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.1. They are allowing 111.9 (111.5 expected) on the road, and at home 108.9 ppg (108.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.6 per game (#2 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.4 per game (#26 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT

The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 4-1 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 11.8%. At #4 in the conference, they are behind the Rockets by 1.5 games. Their projected wins (3.28) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Thunder by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Thunder. There is only a 0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Trail Blazers are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 8 games, traveling 10253 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

MAR 18
LIKELY WIN
64% IND
--
MAR 20
LIKELY WIN
68% DAL
--
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
56% DET
--
MAR 25
LIKELY WIN
68% BKN
--
MAR 27
LIKELY WIN
70% @CHI
1754 miles
MAR 29
CLOSE GAME
60% @ATL
2170 miles
MAR 30**
CLOSE GAME
42% @DET
622 miles
APR 1
CLOSE GAME
45% @MIN
1424 miles
APR 3
LIKELY WIN
76% MEM
--
APR 5
LIKELY LOSS
24% @DEN
981 miles

Sportsline has a free pick on the Portland Trail Blazers' next game. They are -4 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Trail Blazers were projected to win 47.5 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 8/28 their projected win total was 41 before increasing to 52.4 on 11/14. Their current projected win total is 49.7. They have a 1.3% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (52%). They have a 44% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 8% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #8 Easiest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Trail Blazers' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
8 Aminu, Al-Farouq PF6-922009/21/19908Wake Forest
33 Collins, Zach PF7-023511/19/19971Gonzaga
31 Curry, Seth SG6-218508/23/19904Liberty; Duke
4 Harkless, Maurice SF6-922005/11/19936St. John's (N.Y.)
5 Hood, Rodney SG6-820610/20/19924Mississippi State; Duke
00 Kanter, Enes C6-1125005/20/19927Kentucky
17 Labissiere, Skal PF6-1123503/18/19962Kentucky
10 Layman, Jake SF6-921503/07/19942Maryland
11 Leonard, Meyers PF7-125502/27/19926Illinois
0 Lillard, Damian PG6-319507/15/19906Weber State
3 McCollum, CJ SG6-319009/19/19915Lehigh
27 Nurkic, Jusuf C7-027508/23/19944No College
24 Simons, Anfernee SG6-418506/08/19990No College
9 Trent Jr., Gary SG6-620501/18/19990Duke
1 Turner, Evan SG6-722010/27/19888Ohio State