Portland
Trail Blazers
Stadium Moda Center
10-5 Overall | WESTERN 2nd
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Northwest Division114.6107.9
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  11/1
vs
New Orleans
W132-119
Sat  11/3
vs
Los Angeles
L110-114
Sun  11/4
vs
Minnesota
W111-81
Tue  11/6
vs
Milwaukee
W118-103
Thu  11/8
vs
Los Angeles
W116-105
Sun  11/11
vs
Boston
W100-94
Wed  11/14
@
Los Angeles
L117-126
Fri  11/16
@
Minnesota
L96-112
Sun  11/18
@
Washington
Gametracker
Tue  11/20
@
New York
NBAt7:30pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 14.4%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Warriors by one game. With a -0.4 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Thunder in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Thunder. There is only a 0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Trail Blazers are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 8 games, traveling 13465 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
60% @WAS
2350 miles
NOV 20
CLOSE GAME
59% @NY
2441 miles
NOV 21**
CLOSE GAME
45% @MIL
1095 miles
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
26% @GS
539 miles
NOV 25
LIKELY WIN
73% LAC
--
NOV 28
LIKELY WIN
68% ORL
--
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
55% DEN
--
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
47% @SA
1723 miles
DEC 4
CLOSE GAME
47% @DAL
1632 miles
DEC 6
LIKELY WIN
83% PHO
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 10-5 the Trail Blazers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 8.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins but they also have 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-2 home record is +17% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 53% win percentage. The Trail Blazers are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 8/28.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.9% (#7 in League). The team shooting has declined to 54.2% in their last 7 games. They average 114.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.4. On the road they average 109.8 (109.2 expected), and at home 117.8 ppg (114.6 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 52.5 true FG% (#2 in League). They allow 107.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.8. They are allowing 108.3 (110.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.6 ppg (110.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +7 per game (#2 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.8 per game (#28 in league).

Sportsline has a free pick on the Portland Trail Blazers' next game. They are -1 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Trail Blazers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 8/28 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 4.8% on 11/13 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.5%. They have a 60% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (74%). They have a 56% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 24.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 6.7% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #4 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 43% #5 Easiest

Trail Blazers' Championship Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
8 Aminu, Al-Farouq PF6-922009/21/19908Wake Forest
2 Baldwin, Wade PG6-420203/29/19961Vanderbilt
33 Collins, Zach PF7-023511/19/19971Gonzaga
31 Curry, Seth SG6-218508/23/19904Liberty; Duke
4 Harkless, Maurice SF6-922005/11/19936St. John's (N.Y.)
10 Layman, Jake SF6-921503/07/19942Maryland
11 Leonard, Meyers PF7-125502/27/19926Illinois
0 Lillard, Damian PG6-319507/15/19906Weber State
3 McCollum, CJ SG6-319009/19/19915Lehigh
27 Nurkic, Jusuf C7-027508/23/19944No College
24 Simons, Anfernee SG6-418506/08/19990No College
6 Stauskas, Nik SG6-620510/07/19934Michigan
50 Swanigan, Caleb PF6-925004/18/19971Purdue
9 Trent Jr., Gary SG6-620501/18/19990Duke
1 Turner, Evan SG6-722010/27/19888Ohio State