|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|W / OT113-108|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 27-19 the Trail Blazers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 25.2 wins. They have 9 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 19-7 home record is +10% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-4, 67%) is better than their expected 56% win percentage. The Trail Blazers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 52.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#15 in the league). Their peak rank was #5 in the league back on 11/12.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.2% (#12 in League). The team has improved to 59.4% in their last 7 games. They average 112.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110.7. On the road they average 108.4 (108.8 expected), and at home 115 ppg (112.2 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.9 true FG% (#9 in League). They allow 110 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.2. They are allowing 113.9 (110.9 expected) on the road, and at home 107 ppg (107.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.2 per game (#4 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2 per game (#28 in league).
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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The Trail Blazers next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.8%. At #4 in the conference, they are fighting with the Thunder for positioning. Their projected wins (2.58) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Rockets by one game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Rockets. There is only a 0.45 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Trail Blazers are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 6 games, traveling 6256 miles crossing 8 time zones. They rank #19 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
According to Sportsline the Portland Trail Blazers are -3 favorites but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Trail Blazers are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 89.4% chance of making the playoffs. On 8/28 they had a 26.1% chance before increasing to 99.2% on 11/14. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 81.8%. They have a 7.9% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (29%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is 33% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 10.1%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 1% (100/1 odds) and a 0.5% chance of winning it all (200/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Trail Blazers' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|8||Aminu, Al-Farouq||PF||6-9||220||09/21/1990||8||Wake Forest|
|31||Curry, Seth||SG||6-2||185||08/23/1990||4||Liberty; Duke|
|4||Harkless, Maurice||SF||6-9||220||05/11/1993||6||St. John's (N.Y.)|
|0||Lillard, Damian||PG||6-3||195||07/15/1990||6||Weber State|
|27||Nurkic, Jusuf||C||7-0||275||08/23/1994||4||No College|
|24||Simons, Anfernee||SG||6-4||185||06/08/1999||0||No College|
|9||Trent Jr., Gary||SG||6-6||205||01/18/1999||0||Duke|
|1||Turner, Evan||SG||6-7||220||10/27/1988||8||Ohio State|