|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 14.4%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 2%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Warriors by one game. With a -0.4 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are in a battle with Thunder in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Thunder. There is only a 0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Trail Blazers are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 8 games, traveling 13465 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #2 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 10-5 the Trail Blazers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 8.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins but they also have 3 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 7-2 home record is +17% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 53% win percentage. The Trail Blazers are a good team (in simulations) and won 59.4% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#7 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 8/28.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.9% (#7 in League). The team shooting has declined to 54.2% in their last 7 games. They average 114.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.4. On the road they average 109.8 (109.2 expected), and at home 117.8 ppg (114.6 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 52.5 true FG% (#2 in League). They allow 107.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.8. They are allowing 108.3 (110.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.6 ppg (110.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +7 per game (#2 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -2.8 per game (#28 in league).
Sportsline has a free pick on the Portland Trail Blazers' next game. They are -1 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG
The Trail Blazers are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of winning it all. On 8/28 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 4.8% on 11/13 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 2.5%. They have a 60% chance of winning their division. They are projected to finish #2 in the conference and have a 97% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (74%). They have a 56% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 24.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1). In simulations they make the Finals 6.7% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Trail Blazers' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|8||Aminu, Al-Farouq||PF||6-9||220||09/21/1990||8||Wake Forest|
|31||Curry, Seth||SG||6-2||185||08/23/1990||4||Liberty; Duke|
|4||Harkless, Maurice||SF||6-9||220||05/11/1993||6||St. John's (N.Y.)|
|0||Lillard, Damian||PG||6-3||195||07/15/1990||6||Weber State|
|27||Nurkic, Jusuf||C||7-0||275||08/23/1994||4||No College|
|24||Simons, Anfernee||SG||6-4||185||06/08/1999||0||No College|
|9||Trent Jr., Gary||SG||6-6||205||01/18/1999||0||Duke|
|1||Turner, Evan||SG||6-7||220||10/27/1988||8||Ohio State|