|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|L / OT121-129|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
At 42-27 the Trail Blazers are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 38 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 15 impressive wins where they won as betting underdogs or won big as slight favorites vs 13 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 25-9 home record is +11% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 60% win percentage. The Trail Blazers are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.7% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #15 in the league back on 12/27.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.6% (#10 in League). They average 114 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.9. On the road they average 110.9 (110.8 expected), and at home 117.1 ppg (113 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.2 true FG% (#11 in League). They allow 110.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.1. They are allowing 111.9 (111.5 expected) on the road, and at home 108.9 ppg (108.6 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +4.6 per game (#2 in league).
TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.4 per game (#26 in league).
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The forecast for their next 5 games is very good. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 4-1 (33% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 11.8%. At #4 in the conference, they are behind the Rockets by 1.5 games. Their projected wins (3.28) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Thunder by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Thunder. There is only a 0.4 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Trail Blazers are the 6th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Trail Blazers are playing 8 games, traveling 10253 miles crossing 15 time zones. They rank #10 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the Portland Trail Blazers' next game. They are -4 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
Before the season, the Trail Blazers were projected to win 47.5 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 8/28 their projected win total was 41 before increasing to 52.4 on 11/14. Their current projected win total is 49.7. They have a 1.3% chance of winning their division. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (52%). They have a 44% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 8% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Trail Blazers' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|8||Aminu, Al-Farouq||PF||6-9||220||09/21/1990||8||Wake Forest|
|31||Curry, Seth||SG||6-2||185||08/23/1990||4||Liberty; Duke|
|4||Harkless, Maurice||SF||6-9||220||05/11/1993||6||St. John's (N.Y.)|
|5||Hood, Rodney||SG||6-8||206||10/20/1992||4||Mississippi State; Duke|
|0||Lillard, Damian||PG||6-3||195||07/15/1990||6||Weber State|
|27||Nurkic, Jusuf||C||7-0||275||08/23/1994||4||No College|
|24||Simons, Anfernee||SG||6-4||185||06/08/1999||0||No College|
|9||Trent Jr., Gary||SG||6-6||205||01/18/1999||0||Duke|
|1||Turner, Evan||SG||6-7||220||10/27/1988||8||Ohio State|