|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN
The Spurs are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/22 they had a 99.9% chance before dropping to 21.2% on 10/18. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 26.2%. Before the start of their 3 game losing streak they were at 70.6%. They have a 3.1% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Spurs' Season Forecast Changes
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 7-7 the Spurs are behind their money line projected win total of 7.5 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 4 good wins but they also have 4 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 5-2 home record is +14% better than their expected win percentage. Losers of 3 in a row they have a 34.7% chance of seeing that extend to 5 straight. Spurs fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #4 in the league in power ranking. In simulations, the Spurs are a below average team and won 50% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#17 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 10/21.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): They are a bad shooting team with a true FG% of 53.7% (#25 in League). They average 107.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.9. On the road they average 109.3 (108.6 expected), and at home 106.6 ppg (109.3 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.7 true FG% (#13 in League). They allow 108.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.8. They are allowing 112 (108.6 expected) on the road, and at home 105.6 ppg (107 expected).
REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.6 per game (#16 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.3 per game (#10 in league).
NEXT 7 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Spurs next 7 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 2 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 2 more 'toss up' games, and 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 7 games is a record of 3-4 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 13.2%. At #12 in the conference, they are fighting with the Kings for positioning. With a +1.61 advantage in projected wins over their next 7 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Mavericks by half a game. With a +1.52 advantage in projected wins over their next 7 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Spurs are the 7th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Spurs are playing 9 games, traveling 9618 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the San Antonio Spurs' next game. They are -2.5 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|18||Belinelli, Marco||SG||6-5||210||03/25/1986||11||No College|
|42||Bertans, Davis||SF||6-10||225||11/12/1992||2||No College|
|11||Forbes, Bryn||SG||6-3||190||07/23/1993||2||Cleveland State; Michigan State|
|16||Gasol, Pau||PF||7-0||250||07/06/1980||17||No College|
|8||Mills, Patty||PG||6-0||180||08/11/1988||9||St. Mary's (CA)|
|1||Walker IV, Lonnie||SG||6-5||205||12/14/1998||0||Miami (Fla.)|
|4||White, Derrick||PG||6-4||190||07/02/1994||1||Colorado-Colorado Springs; Col|