San Antonio
Spurs
Stadium AT&T Center
27-20 Overall | WESTERN 5th
TEAM STATSPTS/GOPP PTS/G
Southwest Division111.8109.3
Schedule
Regular season
Thu  1/3
vs
Toronto
W125-107
Sat  1/5
vs
Memphis
W108-88
Mon  1/7
@
Detroit
W119-107
Wed  1/9
@
Memphis
L86-96
Thu  1/10
vs
Oklahoma City
W / 2OT154-147
Sat  1/12
@
Oklahoma City
L112-122
Mon  1/14
vs
Charlotte
L93-108
Wed  1/16
@
Dallas
W105-101
Fri  1/18
@
Minnesota
W116-113
Sun  1/20
vs
Los Angeles
7:00pm
Team Outlook and Scouting Report

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Spurs next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 14.2%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.7%. At #6 in the conference, they are fighting with the Rockets for positioning. With a +0.35 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Clippers by one game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Clippers. There is only a -0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Spurs are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Spurs are playing 7 games, traveling 5122 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

JAN 18
LIKELY LOSS
32% @MIN
1112 miles
JAN 20
LIKELY WIN
81% LAC
--
JAN 23
LIKELY LOSS
21% @PHI
1502 miles
JAN 26
LIKELY LOSS
37% @NO
503 miles
JAN 27**
LIKELY WIN
75% WAS
503 miles
JAN 29
LIKELY WIN
78% PHO
--
JAN 31
LIKELY WIN
72% BKN
--
FEB 2
LIKELY WIN
63% NO
--
FEB 4
CLOSE GAME
43% @SAC
1463 miles
FEB 6
LIKELY LOSS
20% @GS
1480 miles

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 26-20 the Spurs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 23.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 8 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 18-6 home record is +16% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.5 wins. Spurs fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #4 in the league in power ranking. The Spurs are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 10/21.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 57.4% (#7 in League). They average 111.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.7. On the road they average 110 (107.6 expected), and at home 113.3 ppg (109.7 expected).

DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.5 true FG% (#15 in League). They allow 109.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.1. They are allowing 113.2 (109.6 expected) on the road, and at home 105.6 ppg (106.8 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.3 per game (#15 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.9.

TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.2 per game (#12 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -1.4.

According to Sportsline the San Antonio Spurs are +1 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Spurs are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/22 they had a 99.9% chance before dropping to 2.1% on 12/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 86%. They have a 41.4% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (36%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 38% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 12.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 51% #9 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #14 Easiest

Spurs' Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Roster
NoPlayerPosHeightWeightBirthdateEXPCOLLEGE
12 Aldridge, LaMarcus PF6-1126007/19/198512Texas
18 Belinelli, Marco SG6-521003/25/198611No College
42 Bertans, Davis SF6-1022511/12/19922No College
33 Cunningham, Dante SF6-823004/22/198710Villanova
10 DeRozan, DeMar SG6-722008/07/19899USC
--- Eubanks, Drew PF6-102450Oregon State
11 Forbes, Bryn SG6-319007/23/19932Cleveland State; Michigan State
16 Gasol, Pau PF7-025007/06/198017No College
22 Gay, Rudy SF6-823008/17/198612Connecticut
7 Metu, Chimezie PF6-1022503/22/19970USC
8 Mills, Patty PG6-018008/11/19889St. Mary's (CA)
26 Moore, Ben PF6-822005/13/19951Southern Methodist
5 Murray, Dejounte PG6-517009/19/19962Washington
25 Poeltl, Jakob C7-023010/15/19952Utah
3 Pondexter, Quincy SF6-723003/10/19886Washington
1 Walker IV, Lonnie SG6-520512/14/19980Miami (Fla.)
4 White, Derrick PG6-419007/02/19941Colorado-Colorado Springs; Col