|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: A
At 41-29 the Spurs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 37.6 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 17 good wins vs 12 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 28-7 home record is +18% better than their expected win percentage. Winners of 8 in a row they have a 7.9% chance of extending that to 11 straight. The Spurs are a good team (in simulations) and won 56.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). They have moved up from #20 in the league back on 2/3.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.3% (#5 in League). They average 111.9 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110.4. On the road they average 110.5 (109.4 expected), and at home 113.3 ppg (111.5 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.9 true FG% (#17 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 52% in their last 7 games. They allow 110.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 109.2. They are allowing 115.1 (111 expected) on the road, and at home 105.7 ppg (107.5 expected).
REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.4 per game (#13 in league).
TURNOVERS (AVERAGE): Their turnover margin is zero (#14 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 2.4.
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY
The Spurs next 6 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 7.6%. At #6 in the conference, they are behind the Thunder by one game. Their projected wins (2.92) over the next 6 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Jazz by half a game. With a -1.18 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they may find the gap between them closing. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Spurs are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Spurs are playing 7 games, traveling 6104 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #21 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
Sportsline has a free pick on the San Antonio Spurs' next game. They are +2.5 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
Before the season, the Spurs were projected to win 54.1 games (average per simulation), and their projected win total has been up and down this season. On 6/20 their projected win total was up to 55.8 before dropping to 36.3 on 12/7. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 47.6 wins. They have a 4.1% chance of winning their division. They have virtually no chance at getting home court advantage in the first round. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 30% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 9.6%. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2% (50/1 odds) and a 1% chance of winning it all (100/1).
Season Strength of Schedule is Relatively Hard
Spurs' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|18||Belinelli, Marco||SG||6-5||210||03/25/1986||11||No College|
|42||Bertans, Davis||SF||6-10||225||11/12/1992||2||No College|
|---||Eubanks, Drew||PF||6-10||245||0||Oregon State|
|11||Forbes, Bryn||SG||6-3||190||07/23/1993||2||Cleveland State; Michigan State|
|8||Mills, Patty||PG||6-0||180||08/11/1988||9||St. Mary's (CA)|
|26||Moore, Ben||PF||6-8||220||05/13/1995||1||Southern Methodist|
|1||Walker IV, Lonnie||SG||6-5||205||12/14/1998||0||Miami (Fla.)|
|4||White, Derrick||PG||6-4||190||07/02/1994||1||Colorado-Colorado Springs; Col|