|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|W / 2OT154-147|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY
The Spurs next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 14.2%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.7%. At #6 in the conference, they are fighting with the Rockets for positioning. With a +0.35 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are ahead of the Clippers by one game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Clippers. There is only a -0.3 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Spurs are the 15th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Spurs are playing 7 games, traveling 5122 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #20 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 26-20 the Spurs are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 23.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 15 good wins vs 8 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 18-6 home record is +16% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 6.5 wins. Spurs fans have to be disappointed that they have fallen well short of their pre-season expectations where they were #4 in the league in power ranking. The Spurs are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#12 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 10/21.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 57.4% (#7 in League). They average 111.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.7. On the road they average 110 (107.6 expected), and at home 113.3 ppg (109.7 expected).
DEFENSE (AVERAGE): They are an average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 55.5 true FG% (#15 in League). They allow 109.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.1. They are allowing 113.2 (109.6 expected) on the road, and at home 105.6 ppg (106.8 expected).
REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.3 per game (#15 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 1.9.
TURNOVERS (ABOVE AVERAGE): They have an Average turnover margin of 0.2 per game (#12 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -1.4.
According to Sportsline the San Antonio Spurs are +1 underdogs but in simulations the average spread is very different and we see this as a pick with a lot of value. Get the pick for this game at Sportsline.com.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)
The Spurs are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 99.8% chance of making the playoffs. On 6/22 they had a 99.9% chance before dropping to 2.1% on 12/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are down to 86%. They have a 41.4% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (36%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 38% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 12.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 3.2% (30/1 odds) and a 1.6% chance of winning it all (60/1).
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Spurs' Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|18||Belinelli, Marco||SG||6-5||210||03/25/1986||11||No College|
|42||Bertans, Davis||SF||6-10||225||11/12/1992||2||No College|
|---||Eubanks, Drew||PF||6-10||245||0||Oregon State|
|11||Forbes, Bryn||SG||6-3||190||07/23/1993||2||Cleveland State; Michigan State|
|16||Gasol, Pau||PF||7-0||250||07/06/1980||17||No College|
|8||Mills, Patty||PG||6-0||180||08/11/1988||9||St. Mary's (CA)|
|26||Moore, Ben||PF||6-8||220||05/13/1995||1||Southern Methodist|
|1||Walker IV, Lonnie||SG||6-5||205||12/14/1998||0||Miami (Fla.)|
|4||White, Derrick||PG||6-4||190||07/02/1994||1||Colorado-Colorado Springs; Col|