LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Kings were projected to win 28 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 10/21 their projected win total was 21.8 before increasing to 41.5 on 2/24. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is up significantly to 39.6 wins. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 0.2% (500/1 odds) and a 0.1% chance of winning it all (1000/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 49% #14 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 51% #4 Toughest

Kings' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

At 34-35 the Kings are greatly exceeding their money line projected win total of 29 wins. In the process of beating expectations they have had 20 impressive wins where they won as betting underdogs or won big as slight favorites vs 4 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 21-14 home record is +12% better than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played poorly going 3-7, 30%. In the pre-season, the Kings were expected to be a below average team (#27) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. In simulations, the Kings are a below average team and won 47.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#19 in the league). They have moved up from #29 in the league back on 10/28.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (WEAKNESS): This is a below average shooting team with a true FG% of 55.3% (#19 in League). Despite the weak shooting %, they still average more points per game (114) than expected (112.8). On the road they average 113.3 (111.5 expected), and at home 114.6 ppg (114.1 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.4 true FG% (#20 in League). Even though they allow a high shooting %, they actually allow fewer points (114.9) than expected (115.6). They are allowing 116.7 (116.4 expected) on the road, and at home 113.1 ppg (114.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 3.2 per game (#25 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.5 per game (#2 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 2 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 6 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (33% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 11.4%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.6%. They have a +1.16 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the Timberwolves by 2.5 games. With a +1.29 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Kings are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Kings are playing 8 games, traveling 12065 miles crossing 14 time zones. They rank #4 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 19
CLOSE GAME
55% BKN
--
MAR 21
LIKELY WIN
63% DAL
--
MAR 23
LIKELY WIN
76% PHO
--
MAR 24**
LIKELY LOSS
35% @LAL
366 miles
MAR 26
CLOSE GAME
43% @DAL
1440 miles
MAR 28
CLOSE GAME
38% @NO
1884 miles
MAR 30
LIKELY LOSS
29% @HOU
1611 miles
MAR 31**
LIKELY LOSS
20% @SA
186 miles
APR 2
CLOSE GAME
42% HOU
--
APR 4
LIKELY WIN
66% CLE
--

The Sacramento Kings' next game is on March 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.