LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Raptors are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.7% chance of winning it all. On 10/26 they had a 24.2% chance before dropping to 0.8% on 3/4. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 4.3%. They are basically a lock to win the division at 98.1%. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 68% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 36.3%. Based on the odds, they have a 28.6% chance of winning the East (5/2) and a 7.7% chance of winning it all (12/1). In simulations they make the Finals 16.4% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 45% #6 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #10 Easiest

Raptors' Championship Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B

At 50-21 the Raptors are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 47.5 wins. They have 14 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 9 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 60% of their road games and were expected to win 59%. At home they have a 81% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 75%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-4, 60%) is under their expected 65% win percentage. The Raptors perform very well in our power ranking simulations beating every other team 60.3% of the time (#5 in the league). They have moved up from #14 in the league back on 3/7.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.4% (#5 in League). They average 114.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.3. On the road they average 112.9 (111.5 expected), and at home 115.2 ppg (115.2 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.7 true FG% (#4 in League). They allow 108.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.9. They are allowing 110 (108.9 expected) on the road, and at home 107.2 ppg (107 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.5 per game (#13 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.3 per game (#9 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -2.4.

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Raptors next 6 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 4 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 1 game where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (35% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 7%. At #2 in the conference, they are behind the Bucks by 3 games. They have a +0.57 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games and could narrow the gap. They are ahead of the 76ers by 4 games. With a +0.98 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Raptors are the 17th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Raptors are playing 8 games, traveling 3241 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
44% @OKC
1339 miles
MAR 22
CLOSE GAME
56% OKC
--
MAR 24
LIKELY WIN
77% CHA
--
MAR 26
LIKELY WIN
73% CHI
--
MAR 28
LIKELY WIN
73% @NY
341 miles
MAR 30
LIKELY WIN
72% @CHI
438 miles
APR 1
CLOSE GAME
61% ORL
--
APR 3
CLOSE GAME
51% @BKN
344 miles
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
61% @CHA
588 miles
APR 7
CLOSE GAME
60% MIA
--

The latest over/under line is 223 but in simulations the average total points is quite different and you can visit Sportsline.com to find out what side of the line you want to be on.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.