LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Raptors are championship contenders, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.7% chance of winning it all. On 6/20 they had a 4.6% chance before increasing to 24.2% on 10/26. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 7.6%. They have an 87.4% chance of winning their division. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 85% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 43.5%. Based on the odds, they have a 40% chance of winning the East (3/2) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 22.5% of the time.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 46% #4 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 49% #14 Easiest

Raptors' Championship Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 34-13 the Raptors are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 31.3 wins. They have 8 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 62% of their road games and were expected to win 58%. At home they have a 83% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 76%. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (8-3, 73%) is better than their expected 62% win percentage. We have simulated the Raptors playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 64.8% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #7 in the league back on 7/13.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 57.3% (#8 in League). They average 113.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.6. On the road they average 112.3 (110.9 expected), and at home 115.3 ppg (114.4 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.4 true FG% (#5 in League). They allow 108.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 107.3. They are allowing 109.8 (108.7 expected) on the road, and at home 107.5 ppg (105.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (AVERAGE): On the boards they are totally average with a 0 rebounding differential (#17 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 3.1.

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.3 per game (#9 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The Raptors next 5 game forecast looks like 'partly sunny skies'. They have 4 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 3 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (37% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 4.9%. There is only a 0.14 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are ahead of the Pacers by 3.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Pacers. There is only a -0.38 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Raptors are the 10th least fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Raptors are playing 6 games, traveling 5896 miles crossing 4 time zones. They rank #22 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 19
LIKELY WIN
74% MEM
--
JAN 22
LIKELY WIN
75% SAC
--
JAN 23**
LIKELY LOSS
35% @IND
441 miles
JAN 25
CLOSE GAME
57% @HOU
1303 miles
JAN 27
CLOSE GAME
45% @DAL
1204 miles
JAN 31
LIKELY WIN
63% MIL
--
FEB 3
LIKELY WIN
82% LAC
--
FEB 5
LIKELY LOSS
28% @PHI
338 miles
FEB 7
LIKELY WIN
71% @ATL
735 miles
FEB 9
CLOSE GAME
56% @NY
341 miles

The Toronto Raptors' next game is on January 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.