|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: BRIGHT
The Raptors next 6 game forecast could not be much brighter. They have 7 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 5-1 (38% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 15.6%. At #1 in the conference, they are ahead of the Bucks by 1.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Bucks. There is only a 0.29 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Raptors are the 11th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Raptors are playing 8 games, traveling 6126 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #14 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B+
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 12-2 the Raptors are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 9.8 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 3 good wins vs 2 bad losses. They have been better than expected on the road. Their 5-1 road record is +25% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (9-2, 82%) is better than their expected 72% win percentage. We have simulated the Raptors playing every other team on a neutral court (with players who would be available in the playoffs) and they won an impressive 66.7% of the time (#2 in the league). They have moved up from #7 in the league back on 7/13.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 58.7% (#3 in League). They average 117.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 114.7. On the road they average 115.3 (113.9 expected), and at home 118.9 ppg (115.3 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 53.5 true FG% (#6 in League). They allow 109.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 108.4. They are allowing 109.7 (111.5 expected) on the road, and at home 109.1 ppg (106.1 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.7 per game (#13 in league).
TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.2 per game (#10 in league).
Sportsline has a free pick on the Toronto Raptors' next game. They are -10 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP
The Raptors are championship contenders and their chances are clearly on the rise. In our pre-season forecast they had a 5.7% chance of winning it all. On 6/20 they had a 4.6% chance before increasing to 24.2% on 10/26. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 14%. They have an 87.3% chance of winning their division. Their chances of getting out of the first round is just 89% and their chances of reaching the conference finals is 54.8%. Based on the odds, they have a 36.4% chance of winning the East (7/4) and a 12.5% chance of winning it all (7/1). In simulations they make the Finals 34% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Tougher
Raptors' Championship Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|25||Boucher, Chris||PF||6-10||200||01/11/1993||1||New Mexico JC; Oregon|
|4||Brown, Lorenzo||PG||6-5||189||08/26/1990||4||North Carolina State|
|14||Green, Danny||SF||6-6||215||06/22/1987||9||North Carolina|
|9||Ibaka, Serge||PF||6-10||235||09/18/1989||9||No College|
|2||Leonard, Kawhi||SF||6-7||230||06/29/1991||7||San Diego State|
|0||Miles, C.J.||SF||6-6||220||03/18/1987||13||No College|
|43||Siakam, Pascal||PF||6-9||230||04/02/1994||2||New Mexico State|
|17||Valanciunas, Jonas||C||7-0||265||05/06/1992||6||No College|
|23||VanVleet, Fred||PG||6-0||195||02/25/1994||2||Wichita State|
|55||Wright, Delon||PG||6-5||183||04/26/1992||3||City College of San Francisco|