SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Jazz jumped from a projected 7th best conference record to the best after upgrading to Mike Conley. However, with the Clippers, Lakers and other major moves out West the Jazz fell all the way to 5th…but they are a win away from being in the Top 3. Mike Conley's ability to stay healthy will be the determining factor. Their odds to win it all are 14/1, 6.7% (#7). Our projection recommends not betting on them to win it all. Their 3.8% chance is #10 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 7.9% of the time and are not a good value at 9/1, 10%. The Jazz are averaging 48.8 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 54.5 wins. At -3000 the Jazz are not a good value to make the playoffs with a 94.9% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 5/6, 54.5%. They win the division in 40% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #6 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Oddsmakers expected them to win 53.7 based on their money line game odds. Their 50-32 record last season failed to meet expectations. They were very good against the spread going 44-37-1 for (+330 profit). They went over 40 times and came in under 42 times. They are heavy favorites in their upcoming game vs the Oklahoma City Thunder. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.7% (#8 in League). The team shooting has declined to 53% in their last 7 games. They average 111.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110.8. On the road they average 110.8 (109.2 expected), and at home 112.6 ppg (112.4 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.1 true FG% (#2 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 56.8% in their last 7 games. They allow 106.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.7. They are allowing 108.1 (107 expected) on the road, and at home 104.8 ppg (104.5 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.8 per game (#3 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.2 per game (#26 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Mike Conley who is projected to be the #8 Guard. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.