NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (30% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 8.7%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1.3%. At #10 in the conference, they are behind the Lakers by half a game. There is only a -0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games so we do not expect them to pick up ground in the conference. They are in a battle with Kings in the conference. With a +1.34 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Jazz are the most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Jazz are playing 8 games, traveling 13070 miles crossing 16 time zones. They rank #1 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 19
LIKELY LOSS
37% @IND
1356 miles
NOV 21
CLOSE GAME
56% SAC
--
NOV 23
CLOSE GAME
39% @LAL
582 miles
NOV 25
CLOSE GAME
55% @SAC
532 miles
NOV 26**
CLOSE GAME
48% IND
532 miles
NOV 28
CLOSE GAME
50% @BKN
1972 miles
NOV 30
CLOSE GAME
42% @CHA
1726 miles
DEC 2
CLOSE GAME
46% @MIA
2090 miles
DEC 4
CLOSE GAME
61% SA
--
DEC 6
CLOSE GAME
40% HOU
--

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: D

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 8-8 the Jazz are behind their money line projected win total of 9.7 wins. They have 5 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 2-4 home record is -35% lower than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (6-6, 50%) is under their expected 60% win percentage. The Jazz should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 53.3% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #8 winning 59%.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.6% (#15 in League). They average 106.8 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 107.6. On the road they average 105 (107.2 expected), and at home 109.7 ppg (108.3 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.4 true FG% (#21 in League). They allow 107.8 pts per game vs an expected value of 104.2. They are allowing 105.7 (105.2 expected) on the road, and at home 111.2 ppg (102.6 expected).

REBOUNDING (ABOVE AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounding opponents by +0.2 per game (#14 in league). However, the team has recently been outrebounded by 2.7.

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.4 per game (#18 in league). Better in their last 7 games with a turnover margin of 1.3.

The Utah Jazz's next game is on November 19. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (DOWN OVERALL)

The Jazz are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 91.7% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/31 they had a 97.9% chance before dropping to 53% on 11/17. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 58.2%. They have a 5.4% chance of winning their division. They have a shot (11%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 18% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 5.8% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #9 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 64% #1 Toughest

Jazz's Season Forecast Changes

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.