|TEAM STATS||PTS/G||OPP PTS/G|
|Team Outlook and Scouting Report|
NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY
The forecast for their next 5 games is generally good. They have 6 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 3-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 5 are 11.5%. At #8 in the conference, they are fighting with the Clippers for positioning. With a +0.57 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Lakers in the conference. With a +1.18 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Jazz are the 20th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Jazz are playing 7 games, traveling 2605 miles crossing 3 time zones. They rank #27 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.
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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-
[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 25-21 Jazz 'should have' 28 wins. They have 13 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 7 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have come up especially short at home. Their 12-8 home record is -10% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-3 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 7.4 wins. The Jazz are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.9% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#8 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 11/28.
STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES
SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.3% (#11 in League). They average 108.3 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.4. On the road they average 106.5 (107.4 expected), and at home 110.5 ppg (109.7 expected).
DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.5 true FG% (#6 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 50.4% in their last 7 games. They allow 105.1 pts per game vs an expected value of 104.9. They are allowing 105.6 (106.1 expected) on the road, and at home 104.4 ppg (103.4 expected).
REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +2.4 per game (#8 in league).
TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.7 per game (#19 in league).
Sportsline has a free pick on the Utah Jazz's next game. They are -15 favorites and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.
LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)
The Jazz are contenders to win the conference, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 2.1% chance of reaching the NBA Finals. On 11/28 they had a 0.1% chance before increasing to 10.6% on 1/7. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 3.4%. They have a 30.6% chance of winning their division. They will be fighting for a playoff spot (currently projected to finish #8 in the conference) and have a 95% chance of making the playoffs. They have a good shot at getting home court advantage in the first round (66%). They have a 52% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 20% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 4.8% (20/1 odds) and a 2.4% chance of winning it all (40/1). In simulations they win the championship 1% of the time.
Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier
Jazz's Season Forecast Changes
Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.
|13||Bradley, Tony||C||6-10||248||01/08/1998||1||North Carolina|
|34||Cavanaugh, Tyler||PF||6-9||238||02/09/1994||1||Wake Forest; George Washington|
|99||Crowder, Jae||PF||6-6||235||07/06/1990||6||Southwest Georgia Technical Co|
|11||Exum, Dante||PG||6-6||190||07/13/1995||3||No College|
|15||Favors, Derrick||PF||6-10||265||07/15/1991||8||Georgia Tech|
|27||Gobert, Rudy||C||7-1||245||06/26/1992||5||No College|
|2||Ingles, Joe||SF||6-8||226||10/02/1987||4||No College|
|30||Mitrou-Long, Naz||SG||6-4||218||08/03/1993||1||Iowa State|
|25||Neto, Raul||PG||6-1||179||05/19/1992||3||No College|
|31||Niang, Georges||SF||6-8||230||06/17/1993||2||Iowa State|
|23||O'Neale, Royce||SF||6-6||226||06/05/1993||1||Denver; Baylor|
|3||Rubio, Ricky||PG||6-4||190||10/21/1990||7||No College|
|22||Sefolosha, Thabo||SF||6-7||220||05/02/1984||12||No College|