LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Jazz were projected to win 48.3 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 10/29 their projected win total was up to 49.8 before dropping to 40.3 on 11/28. Their current projected win total is 49.1. They have a shot (25%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 40% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 8.6% chance of reaching the conference finals. Based on the odds, they have a 6.2% chance of winning the West (15/1) and a 3.2% chance of winning it all (30/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 37% #1 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #2 Toughest

Jazz's Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 40-29 Jazz 'should have' 44 wins. They have 19 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have won 50% of their road games and were expected to win 54%. At home they have a 66% win percentage vs an expected win rate of 73%. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 8-3, 73%. The Jazz are a good team (in simulations) and won 55.1% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#11 in the league). They have moved up from #19 in the league back on 11/28.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.4% (#12 in League). They average 110.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 110.2. On the road they average 108.8 (108.3 expected), and at home 111.5 ppg (112 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.4 true FG% (#2 in League). They allow 106.4 pts per game vs an expected value of 105.8. They are allowing 107.9 (107.1 expected) on the road, and at home 104.9 ppg (104.5 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They significantly outrebound opponents by an average of +3.4 per game (#5 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.3 per game (#25 in league).

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY SUNNY

The forecast for their next 6 games is generally good. They have 8 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and no games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 4-2 (34% chance). Their chances of winning their next 6 are 9.8%. At #7 in the conference, they are behind the Spurs by half a game. With a +1.18 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. They are in a battle with Clippers in the conference. With a +2.18 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Jazz are the 7th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Jazz are playing 8 games, traveling 11463 miles crossing 12 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
CLOSE GAME
55% @WAS
1845 miles
MAR 20
LIKELY WIN
73% @NY
1970 miles
MAR 21**
LIKELY WIN
69% @ATL
749 miles
MAR 23
LIKELY WIN
72% @CHI
1257 miles
MAR 25
LIKELY WIN
83% PHO
--
MAR 27
CLOSE GAME
60% LAL
--
MAR 29
LIKELY WIN
81% WAS
--
APR 1
LIKELY WIN
76% CHA
--
APR 3
LIKELY WIN
84% @PHO
507 miles
APR 5
LIKELY WIN
68% SAC
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Sportsline has a free pick on the Utah Jazz's next game. They are -4.5 favorites and are not expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is good value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.