LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG (UP OVERALL)

The Wizards are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had a 45% chance of making the playoffs. On 11/9 they had a 3.6% chance before increasing to 94.9% on 1/15. From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 82.4%. They have a 53.9% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 48% #10 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #11 Toughest

Wizards' Season Forecast Changes

Stream Washington games with SlingTV

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 19-26 Wizards 'should have' 22 wins. They have 11 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 8 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 5-18 road record is -17% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 6-4 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 4.4 wins. The Wizards are a good team (in simulations) and won 54.3% of the simulations vs every other team playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#13 in the league). This is their peak for the season. Back on 11/30 they won just 39.1%. In our pre-season simulations they were ranked #18 winning 47.3%.

SportsLine has the best NBA picks and Daily Fantasy Lineups. In the off-season check out our coverage of all major leagues (NFL, MLB, NHL, Horses, NASCAR, and Golf).

STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 56.2% (#13 in League). They average 113.2 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 112.6. On the road they average 108.9 (111.5 expected), and at home 117.8 ppg (113.7 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.7 true FG% (#27 in League). They allow 116.5 pts per game vs an expected value of 113.2. They are allowing 118.7 (115.1 expected) on the road, and at home 114.1 ppg (111.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 6.8 per game (#30 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 2.4 per game (#4 in league).

NEXT 4 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The Wizards next 4 game forecast looks like a mix of 'clouds and sun'. They have 5 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 2 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 4 games is a record of 2-2 (42% chance). Their chances of winning their next 4 are 5.2%. At #11 in the conference, they are behind the Magic by half a game. With a -0.25 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 4 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Hawks. There is only a 0.12 advantage in projected wins over their next 4 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Wizards are just the 27th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Wizards are playing 6 games, traveling 4898 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #23 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
JAN 21
LIKELY WIN
71% DET
--
JAN 24
CLOSE GAME
49% GS
--
JAN 25**
CLOSE GAME
55% @ORL
759 miles
JAN 27
LIKELY LOSS
25% @SA
1385 miles
JAN 29
LIKELY WIN
66% @CLE
305 miles
JAN 30**
LIKELY WIN
66% IND
305 miles
FEB 2
LIKELY WIN
63% MIL
--
FEB 4
LIKELY WIN
82% ATL
--
FEB 6
LIKELY LOSS
29% @MIL
926 miles
FEB 8
LIKELY WIN
88% CLE
--

The Washington Wizards' next game is on January 21. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.