LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING DOWN

The Wizards are competing to make the playoffs but their chances are on a downward trend. In our pre-season forecast they had a 45% chance of making the playoffs. On 10/18 they had a 93.2% chance before dropping to 3.6% on 11/9. From the start of the season to now their chances are down significantly to 16.7%. They have a 4.6% chance of winning their division. They have a very slim chance (

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 47% #4 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 55% #7 Toughest

Wizards' Season Forecast Changes

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SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: F

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 5-10 Wizards 'should have' 8 wins. They have 8 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 2 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). They have been below expectations on the road and at home. Their 2-6 road record is -20% lower than expected. Their 3-4 home record is -26% lower. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (4-7, 36%) is under their expected 61% win percentage. In simulations where the Wizards played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 44.4% of the time (#22 in the league). They have moved up from #24 in the league back on 11/5.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.8% (#14 in League). They average 111.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.6. On the road they average 110.2 (113.1 expected), and at home 112 ppg (114 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.7 true FG% (#26 in League). They allow 116.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 111.5. They are allowing 121.6 (114.6 expected) on the road, and at home 111.1 ppg (108 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 6.7 per game (#29 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#10 in league).

NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 5 games can be described as 'cloudy'. They have 5 games where they are expected to be competitive with at least a 45% chance of winning, and 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (37% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 5.3%. At #11 in the conference, they are behind the Heat by one game. With a -0.53 disadvantage in projected wins over their next 5 games they may find themselves further behind in the conference. They are ahead of the Knicks by 1.5 games. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Knicks. There is only a -0.36 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Wizards are just the 28th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Wizards are playing 8 games, traveling 3183 miles crossing 2 time zones. They rank #24 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
NOV 18
CLOSE GAME
46% POR
--
NOV 20
CLOSE GAME
53% LAC
--
NOV 23
LIKELY LOSS
9% @TOR
564 miles
NOV 24**
CLOSE GAME
47% NO
564 miles
NOV 26
LIKELY LOSS
35% HOU
--
NOV 28
LIKELY LOSS
30% @NO
967 miles
NOV 30
LIKELY LOSS
14% @PHI
121 miles
DEC 1**
CLOSE GAME
53% BKN
121 miles
DEC 3
LIKELY LOSS
33% @NY
206 miles
DEC 5
CLOSE GAME
55% @ATL
543 miles

The Washington Wizards' next game is on November 18. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.