LONG TERM OUTLOOK: TRENDING UP

Before the season, the Wizards were projected to win 38.6 games (average per simulation) and things are looking positive. On 10/18 their projected win total was up to 42.3 before dropping to 32 on 11/8. From the start of the season to now their projected win total is down to 34.8 wins. The playoffs are not likely with their 1.2% chance and a projected #11 finish in the conference.

Strength of Schedule Getting Much Easier

• Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 45% #5 Easiest
• Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 50% #13 Toughest

Wizards' Season Forecast Changes

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: C

Based on the money line projected win totals in each game, the 30-40 Wizards 'should have' 33 wins. They have 15 bad losses (they were favored or got blown out as slight underdogs) vs 12 good wins (upset wins, or blowout victory in what was expected to be a close game). Their performance on the road has left a lot to be desired. Their 8-27 road record is -15% lower than their expected win percentage. Over the past 3 weeks they have played better going 6-5 in a stretch where their projected win rate was 5.1 wins. In the pre-season, the Wizards were expected to be a below average team (#18) in power rank, and they have managed to be even worse. In simulations where the Wizards played every other team (neutral court in playoffs) they won just 36.4% of the time (#27 in the league). Their peak rank was #13 in the league back on 1/17.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 57.1% (#8 in League). The team has improved to 59.9% in their last 7 games. They average 114.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113. On the road they average 111.4 (111.8 expected), and at home 117.9 ppg (114.2 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): They are not a good defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 57.8 true FG% (#28 in League). Team defense is trending up holding opponents to 55.2% in their last 7 games. They allow 116.9 pts per game vs an expected value of 113.9. They are allowing 119.6 (115.7 expected) on the road, and at home 114.3 ppg (112 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 5.6 per game (#29 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.5 per game (#8 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -3.1.

NEXT 6 GAME OUTLOOK: PARTLY CLOUDY

The forecast for their next 6 games is a mixed bag. They have 3 games where they are favored by >55% of the simulations, 3 more 'toss up' games, and 4 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 6 games is a record of 3-3 (32% chance). Their chances of winning 5 or more are 7.6%. Their chances of winning their next 6 are 1%. At #11 in the conference, they are behind the Hornets by 1.5 games. With a +0.48 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of improving their conference seed. With a +1.27 advantage in projected wins over their next 6 games they have a good chance of widening the gap. The Fatigue Index factors for travel (miles, time zones crossed) and games played. Based on this index the Wizards are just the 29th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Wizards are playing 8 games, traveling 14937 miles crossing 18 time zones. They rank #7 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)
MAR 18
CLOSE GAME
45% UTA
--
MAR 20
CLOSE GAME
52% @CHI
597 miles
MAR 21**
CLOSE GAME
46% DEN
597 miles
MAR 23
CLOSE GAME
44% MIA
--
MAR 26
LIKELY LOSS
27% @LAL
2299 miles
MAR 27**
LIKELY WIN
63% @PHO
359 miles
MAR 29
LIKELY LOSS
19% @UTA
1845 miles
MAR 31
LIKELY LOSS
15% @DEN
1493 miles
APR 3
CLOSE GAME
60% CHI
--
APR 5
CLOSE GAME
57% SA
--

Sportsline has a free pick on the Washington Wizards' next game. They are +4.5 underdogs and are expected to cover. Visit Sportsline.com to find out if there is a lot of value on this pick and get picks vs totals, money lines and a complete projected box score of the game.

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.