16-9 Clippers Are Where the OddsMakers Expected

SEASON-TO-DATE GRADE: B-

[NOTE: Early in the season, we include last season in the analysis] At 16-9 the Clippers are exceeding expectations. The combined projected win total based on per game money lines is 13.3 wins. If you consider winning as an underdog or winning by 10+ as a slight favorite, then they have 7 good wins vs 4 bad losses. They have exceeded expectations in home games. Their 9-2 home record is +22% better than their expected win percentage. Their record over the last 3 weeks and win% (7-4, 64%) is better than their expected 60% win percentage. In the pre-season, the Clippers were expected to be a below average team (#25) in power rank, but they have greatly exceeded expectations. The Clippers should be a slightly above average team based on simulations where they won 51.1% of the simulations played vs every other team as if they were playing on a neutral court with players available in the playoffs (#14 in the league). They have moved up from #30 in the league back on 7/13.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.2% (#5 in League). They average 115.6 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.2. On the road they average 116 (113.1 expected), and at home 115.2 ppg (113.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 53.5 true FG% (#3 in League). They allow 112.6 pts per game vs an expected value of 112.2. They are allowing 115 (113.8 expected) on the road, and at home 109.5 ppg (110.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.5 per game (#19 in league).

TURNOVERS (WEAKNESS): Their average turnover margin is -1.6 per game (#25 in league).

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NEXT 5 GAME OUTLOOK: CLOUDY

The Clippers next 5 game forecast looks pretty dreary. They have 3 likely wins where they are winning >62% of the simulations which translates to being at least a -5 point favorite, 2 more games where they are favored by at least 55%, and just 5 games where they are a clear underdog. The most likely scenario over the next 5 games is a record of 2-3 (34% chance). Their chances of winning 4 or more are 15.8%. Their chances of winning their next 5 are 1.9%. At #4 in the conference, they are behind the Nuggets by half a game. Their projected wins (2.42) over the next 5 games is virtually the same so we do not expect a change in standings in the near term. They are ahead of the Lakers by half a game. In the short-term, we do predict much of a change in the gap between them and the Lakers. There is only a -0.23 advantage in projected wins over their next 5 games. Our Fatigue Index ranks teams based on travel miles, time zones crossed, days off since their last game and based on these metrics the Clippers are the 5th most fatigued team heading into the next game. Over the next few weeks, the Clippers are playing 8 games, traveling 5473 miles crossing 9 time zones. They rank #8 on the Fatigue Index during this time period.

Win%, Opp, and Distance to Road Game (**Indicates Back-to-Back)

DEC 10
LIKELY WIN
63% @PHO
359 miles
DEC 11**
CLOSE GAME
44% TOR
359 miles
DEC 13
CLOSE GAME
40% @SA
1207 miles
DEC 15
LIKELY LOSS
29% @OKC
1181 miles
DEC 17
LIKELY WIN
66% POR
--
DEC 20
LIKELY WIN
76% DAL
--
DEC 22
CLOSE GAME
55% DEN
--
DEC 23**
LIKELY LOSS
17% @GS
338 miles
DEC 26
LIKELY WIN
65% SAC
--
DEC 28
CLOSE GAME
39% @LAL
0 miles

The LA Clippers' next game is on December 10. Visit Sportsline.com to get picks, free trends and player projections for this game.

LONG TERM OUTLOOK: MIXED BAG

The Clippers are competing to make the playoffs, but they have seen their chances go up and down this season. In our pre-season forecast they had less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs. On 7/1 they under a 1% chance before increasing to 91.6% on 12/4 (streak start). From the start of the season to now their chances are up significantly to 69.9%. They have a shot (23%) at getting home court advantage in the first round. They have a 23% chance of reaching the conference semi-finals and a 6.3% chance of reaching the conference finals. The odds still give them a sliver of hope to win the West at 2.4% (40/1 odds) and a 1.2% chance of winning it all (80/1).

Strength of Schedule Getting Easier

  • Remaining Opponents' Win Percentage Rest of Season: 50% #12 Toughest
  • Season-to-Date Opponents' Win Percentage: 52% #7 Toughest

Clippers' Season Forecast Changes

DateProjected WinsPlayoff%West ChampNBA Champ
Dec 945.269.9%1%0.2%
Dec 547.791.4%1.9%0.6%
Difference-2.5-21.5%-0.9%-0.4%

FANTASY PROFILE

Based on rest of season projections, these are the 6 most valuable fantasy players based on their projected position rank (Guards, Forwards, Centers). Overvalued players are rated higher by the market based on ownership% and vice versa.

Rest of Season LeadersFP Per GameOwn % and Value
Tobias Harris29.8100% Own (Overvalued w/ Market Rank #8)
Montrezl Harrell26.795% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #18)
Danilo Gallinari26.698% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #22)
Louis Williams2897% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #29)
Marcin Gortat12.825% Own (Fairly Valued w/ Market Rank #32)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander21.975% Own (Undervalued w/ Market Rank #54)