Father Time Is Catching Up with Paul Millsap

SEASON FANTASY RECAP AND TREND

Paul Millsap has had an OK fantasy season if you were expecting to have him on the bench and only start in certain weeks. He is the #92 ranked fantasy player this season and the #15 power forward. His ranking drops to the #21 ranked power forward when basing it on average fantasy points. Millsap did not show a clear upward or downward trend as the season progressed. He averaged 25.3 FPs in his first 23 games, 22.2 in the middle of his season and 25.5 in his final 25.5 games. His fantasy production is stable and he is not as volatile as most players based on a below average standard deviation. Our projected ceiling for Millsap when he 'goes off' is 48 fantasy points (his average is 24.3FPs) with a floor of 6 points.

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DOWNWARD STATISTICAL CAREER TREND

Millsap has been getting predictably less productive with age. His three season trend shows a 26% decline in fantasy points per game. His minutes per game have decreased and his usage is down.

SEASON TREND'18-19'17-18'16-17
Fantasy Points172710152274
FP Average24.326.733
Regular Season GP713869
PTS12.614.618.1
REB7.26.47.8
AST2.02.73.6
STL1.21.01.3
BLK0.81.20.9
TO1.41.92.3
3P0.81.01.1
MIN27.130.134.0
USAGE19.822.124.7

WEEKLY FANTASY RECAP

He has averaged 74 fantasy points per week and had 7 weeks where he exceeded that by 20% and 4 'bad' weeks where he came up 20% short of his average.

WeekFantasy Points (GP)Good WeekBad Week
ALL74 FP per Week74
Week 171 (3 games 23.7 per game)
Week 236 (2 games 18 per game)-38.4
Week 3108 (4 games 27 per game)+33.6
Week 495 (4 games 23.8 per game)+20.6
Week 571 (3 games 23.7 per game)
Week 6104 (4 games 26 per game)+29.6
Week 778 (2 games 39 per game)
Week 869 (3 games 23 per game)
Week 119 (1 games)-65.4
Week 1283 (3 games 27.7 per game)
Week 13102 (5 games 20.4 per game)+27.6
Week 1467 (3 games 22.3 per game)
Week 1550 (3 games 16.7 per game)-24.4
Week 1667 (4 games 16.8 per game)
Week 1868 (2 games 34 per game)
Week 1981 (2 games 40.5 per game)
Week 2077 (3 games 25.7 per game)
Week 2165 (3 games 21.7 per game)
Week 22114 (3 games 38 per game)+39.6
Week 2396 (4 games 24 per game)+21.6
Week 2498 (4 games 24.5 per game)+23.6
Week 2571 (3 games 23.7 per game)
Week 2632 (2 games 16 per game)-42.4

DAILY FANTASY SEASON RECAP

His FanDuel average was 27.4 points and on DraftKings it was 28.7 per game. We looked at all of his games that were between the 10th and 90th percentile where the 10th percentile is his floor and the 90th is his ceiling. On DraftKings his floor was 14.8 and on FanDuel it was 12.5 fantasy points. When he was good, he was very good with a DraftKings ceiling of 43.8 and 45 on FanDuel. He has had more bad FanDuel games (below average by 20%) than good games (20% above average), and an equal number of good and bad games on DraftKings. We are only including games where they were in the daily fantasy slate and played.

GameFD Pts (Sal)Good or BadDK Pts (Sal)Good or Bad
All27.4 ($6.6K)20 G, 21 B28.7 ($5.9K)20 G, 20 B
4/10 MIN19.5 ($6.4K)-7.923.5 ($5.5K)--
4/9 @UTA12.5 ($6.4K)-14.913 ($5.5K)-15.7
4/5 POR34 ($6.4K)+6.637.2 ($5.5K)+8.5
4/3 SA15.5 ($6.9K)-11.915.8 ($6K)-12.9
4/2 @GS24 ($7.2K)--26.5 ($6.2K)--
3/31 WAS32.5 ($7.2K)--38.5 ($6.2K)+9.8
3/29 @OKC20 ($7.5K)-7.423.2 ($6.2K)--
3/28 @HOU17 ($7.3K)-10.415.5 ($6.6K)-13.2
3/26 DET33.5 ($6.8K)+6.138.2 ($6.6K)+9.5
3/24 @IND14.5--15.8--
3/22 @NY23 ($7.2K)--25.2 ($7K)--
3/21 @WAS33 ($7.5K)+5.633 ($6.7K)--
3/18 @BOS29.5 ($7K)--34.8 ($6.6K)+6.1
3/16 IND34.5 ($7.1K)+7.138.8 ($6.7K)+10.1
3/14 DAL48.5 ($6.9K)+21.150 ($6.6K)+21.3
3/12 MIN35 ($6.7K)+7.637.2 ($6.4K)+8.5
3/8 @GS12.5 ($6.7K)-14.915 ($6.6K)-13.7
3/6 @LAL31.5 ($7K)--32.5 ($6.9K)--
3/4 @SA22 ($7.8K)--24.2 ($6.6K)--
3/2 NO45 ($7.8K)+17.641.8 ($6.6K)+13.1
2/28 UTA25 ($8.4K)--25.8 ($6.6K)--
2/26 OKC29.5 ($8.4K)--32 ($6.2K)--
2/24 LAC53 ($7K)+25.655.5 ($6.1K)+26.8
2/22 @DAL44 ($6.6K)+16.645.8 ($4.6K)+17.1
2/13 SAC50 ($5.9K)+22.652.2 ($4.7K)+23.5
2/11 MIA30.5 ($5.5K)--30.5 ($4.8K)--
2/2 @MIN5 ($5.4K)-22.46.2 ($5.2K)-22.5
2/1 HOU25 ($5.4K)--24.8 ($5K)--
1/30 @NO29 ($5K)--29.5 ($5K)--
1/28 @MEM14.5 ($5.6K)-12.914.8 ($5.1K)-13.9
1/26 PHI9.5 ($5.7K)-17.910.5 ($5K)-18.2
1/25 PHO39 ($5.8K)+11.640.2 ($5.1K)+11.5
1/23 @UTA6 ($5.5K)-21.47.8 ($5.4K)-20.9
1/19 CLE26.5 ($6.4K)--25.8 ($5.8K)--
1/17 CHI27 ($6.5K)--29.5 ($5.8K)--
1/15 GS19 ($6.7K)-8.418.8 ($6K)-9.9
1/13 POR15 ($6.7K)-12.417.5 ($6K)-11.2
1/12 @PHO31 ($6.7K)--33.2 ($6.2K)--
1/10 LAC19 ($6.8K)-8.420.8 ($6.3K)-7.9
1/8 @MIA32 ($6.5K)--32.8 ($5.8K)--
1/7 @HOU15 ($6.5K)-12.414.8 ($5.4K)-13.9
1/5 CHA38.5--37.5--
1/3 @SAC19 ($6.2K)-8.421 ($5.2K)-7.7
1/1 NY34 ($6K)+6.634.2 ($5.4K)--
12/29 @PHO10.5 ($6.4K)-16.99.5 ($6K)-19.2
12/7 @CHA28.5 ($6.4K)--26.8 ($6.4K)--
12/5 @ORL27 ($6.8K)--31 ($6.5K)--
12/3 @TOR18.5 ($7.2K)-8.921 ($6.3K)-7.7
11/30 @POR47 ($6.7K)+19.649.5 ($6.1K)+20.8
11/27 LAL42 ($6.4K)+14.643.8 ($5.9K)+15.1
11/24 @OKC23.5 ($6.3K)--24.5 ($6.1K)--
11/23 ORL31 ($5.9K)--30.8 ($6.1K)--
11/21 @MIN47 ($5.9K)+19.643.8 ($5.9K)+15.1
11/19 @MIL25 ($5.9K)--25.8 ($6.1K)--
11/17 @NO17.5 ($6.3K)-9.916.2 ($6.2K)-12.5
11/15 ATL51.5 ($6.2K)+24.148.8 ($5.8K)+20.1
11/13 HOU17.5 ($6.2K)-9.917.5 ($5.6K)-11.2
11/11 MIL48 ($5.6K)+20.650.5 ($5.1K)+21.8
11/9 BKN22 ($5.6K)--26.8 ($5.1K)--
11/7 @MEM7.5 ($6K)-19.98.2 ($5.3K)-20.5
11/5 BOS23 ($6.5K)--25 ($5.6K)--
11/3 UTA28 ($6.9K)--27.8 ($5.7K)--
11/1 @CLE26.5 ($6.7K)--27.5 ($6.1K)--
10/31 @CHI34.5 ($6.7K)+7.134 ($5.8K)--
10/29 NO33.5 ($6.6K)+6.136 ($5.5K)+7.3
10/25 @LAL17 ($6.9K)-10.417.8 ($5.8K)-10.9
10/23 SAC26 ($7.1K)--25.8 ($6.2K)--
10/21 GS23.5 ($7.3K)--21.5 ($6.4K)-7.2
10/20 PHO33 ($7.3K)+5.635.5 ($6.8K)+6.8
10/17 @LAC31 ($7.3K)--35.5 ($6.8K)+6.8