Boston Celtics Not a Real Contender Without Horford and With Kemba Walker

PLAYOFF FORECAST

Without Kyrie Irving and Al Horford their projected win total dropped significantly from 51 down to 44. With Kemba Walker that bumped back up to 46, but they are still looking at a 5th Seed in the East. There is not a lot of evidence that Kemba Walker makes teammates better. They have a 30.6% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have an 11.3% chance of getting past round 2. If they do manage to beat the odds and advance past round 2, their chances of winning the East is 4%. They have 1.3% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The sum of all of their regular season money line implied probabilities (adjusted for the juice) projects to 52.1 wins. Their 49 actual wins was below expectation. They didn't meet expectations on the road and at home. They went 21-20 on the road and were expected to win 23.1. Their 68.3% home win percentage was worse than expected (70.9%).

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): This is an above average shooting team with a true FG% of 56.4% (#10 in League). They average 112.4 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 111.3. On the road they average 110.7 (109.6 expected), and at home 114.1 ppg (112.9 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): This is an elite defensive team holding opponents to 54.8 true FG% (#5 in League). They allow 108 pts per game vs an expected value of 106.8. They are allowing 108.6 (107.6 expected) on the road, and at home 107.3 ppg (106 expected).

REBOUNDING (WEAKNESS): They are outrebounded by opponents by 1 per game (#21 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#5 in league). Worst in their past 7 games with a turnover margin of -2.3.

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Celtics in all of their games would be down -158 units. Against the spread, they have lost -820 units risking 110 to win 100 (38-42 ATS). They are down against the spread at home and on the road.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U RecordPts/PosPA/PosPos+/-
All Games112.4 - 108.049-33, -15838-42, -82047-35 57.3% Over1.151.1-0.57
On Road110.7 - 108.621-20, -38718-21, -51022-19 53.7% Over1.141.11-0.63
At Home114.1 - 107.328-13, -32820-21, -31025-16 61% Over1.161.09-0.52
4/9 @WAS116-110Win +170Covered +5Over 222.51.191.07-6
4/7 ORL108-116Loss -100ATS Loss -4Over 2181.11.180
4/5 @IND117-97Win +80Covered -1Over 213.51.181+2
4/3 @MIA112-102Win +91Covered +1Under 214.51.181.04-3
4/1 MIA110-105Win +36ATS Loss -7Over 213.51.151.07-2
3/30 @BKN96-110Loss -100ATS Loss +4Under 2230.991.12-1
3/29 IND114-112Win +36ATS Loss -7Over 2131.181.19+2
3/26 @CLE116-106Win +40Covered -5.5Over 2161.231.08-3
3/24 SA96-115Loss -100ATS Loss +1.5Under 2221.021.220
3/23 @CHA117-124Loss -100ATS Loss -4Over 222.51.191.24-2
3/20 @PHI115-118Loss -100Covered +3.5Over 2241.191.23+1
3/18 DEN105-114Loss -100ATS Loss -4Under 2211.081.14-3
3/16 ATL129-120Win +15ATS Loss -10.5Over 232.51.21.15+4
3/14 SAC126-120Win +32ATS Loss -7.5Over 2281.181.17+4
3/11 @LAC115-140Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 227.51.141.38-1
3/9 @LAL120-107Win +35Covered -7Over 220.51.181.08+3
3/6 @SAC111-109Win +76ATS Push -2Under 2261.131.15+3
3/5 @GS128-95Win +225Covered +6.5Under 2281.260.92-2
3/3 HOU104-115Loss -100ATS Loss -2Under 225.51.141.260
3/1 WAS107-96Win +18Covered -10Under 234.51.090.96-2
2/27 POR92-97Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 2280.971.04+2
2/26 @TOR95-118Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 2260.971.23+2
2/23 @CHI116-126Loss -100ATS Loss -10Over 2201.181.32+3
2/21 @MIL97-98Loss -100Covered +6.5Under 2271.011.020
2/13 DET118-110Win +58Covered -3.5Over 2101.221.15+1
2/12 @PHI112-109Win +255Covered +6.5Under 2251.241.16-3
2/9 LAC112-123Loss -100ATS Loss -11.5Over 228.51.061.14-3
2/7 LAL128-129Loss -100ATS Loss -9Over 228.51.341.31-3
2/5 @CLE103-96Win +14ATS Loss -10Under 2101.151.04-3
2/3 OKC134-129Win +57Covered -4Over 2281.31.260
2/1 @NY113-99Win +6ATS Push -14Under 213.51.171.030
1/30 CHA126-94Win +30Covered -7.5Over 214.51.381.01-2
1/28 BKN112-104Win +23ATS Loss -9Under 219.51.110.98-5
1/26 GS111-115Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 2331.111.19+3
1/23 CLE123-103Win +5Covered -15Over 2131.271.060
1/21 MIA107-99Win +26ATS Loss -8.5Under 2131.0910
1/19 @ATL113-105Win +34Covered -6.5Under 2261.141.04-2
1/18 MEM122-116Win +17ATS Loss -10Over 207.51.241.2+2
1/16 TOR117-108Win +69Covered -3Over 2231.251.160
1/14 @BKN102-109Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 2171.051.120
1/12 @ORL103-105Loss -100ATS Loss -7Under 213.51.071.090
1/10 @MIA99-115Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 211.51.061.230
1/9 IND135-108Win +32Covered -7Over 2161.371.08-2
1/7 BKN116-95Win +17Covered -10.5Under 2201.150.96+2
1/4 DAL114-93Win +56Covered -4Under 212.51.20.970
1/2 MIN115-102Win +40Covered -6Over 215.51.251.07-3
12/31 @SA111-120Loss -100ATS Loss -1Over 217.51.161.23-2
12/29 @MEM112-103Win +60Covered -3.5Over 2021.191.11+1
12/27 @HOU113-127Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 214.51.191.36+1
12/25 PHI121-114Win +49Covered -5Over 2241.121.03-2
12/23 CHA119-103Win +30Covered -7.5Over 2171.241.08+1
12/21 MIL107-120Loss -100ATS Loss +1.5Over 223.51.081.23+1
12/19 PHO103-111Loss -100ATS Loss -11.5Under 222.51.091.14-3
12/15 @DET104-113Loss -100ATS Loss -2Over 2121.021.14+3
12/14 ATL129-108Win +10Covered -12Over 221.51.21.04+4
12/12 @WAS130-125Win +61Covered -3.5Over 2201.191.18+3
12/10 NO113-100Win +75Covered -2.5Under 222.51.211.02-5
12/8 @CHI133-77Win +27Covered -8Under 2151.480.85-1
12/6 NY128-100Win +7Covered -13.5Over 218.51.31.02+1
12/1 @MIN118-109Win +105Covered +2Over 216.51.211.1-2
11/30 CLE128-95Win +8Covered -12.5Over 206.51.371.03+1
11/26 @NO124-107Win +118Covered +2Over 228.51.291.08-2
11/24 @DAL104-113Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Over 2131.091.190
11/23 @ATL114-96Win +28Covered -8Under 223.51.090.920
11/21 NY109-117Loss -100ATS Loss -14.5Over 215.51.091.170
11/19 @CHA112-117Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Over 2181.161.18-3
11/17 UTA86-98Loss -100ATS Loss -4Under 206.50.931.050
11/16 TOR123-116Win +74Covered -2Over 2181.181.08-3
11/14 CHI111-82Win +9Covered -13Under 209.51.140.83-2
11/11 @POR94-100Loss -100ATS Loss +2Under 213.511.08+2
11/9 @UTA115-123Loss -100ATS Loss +5.5Over 204.51.191.3+2
11/8 @PHO116-109Win +18ATS Loss -9.5Over 214.51.11.01-3
11/5 @DEN107-115Loss -100ATS Loss +1.5Over 210.51.151.19-3
11/3 @IND101-102Loss -100ATS Loss -3.5Under 205.51.11.04-6
11/1 MIL117-113Win +71Covered -2.5Over 220.51.21.13-2
10/30 DET108-105Win +25ATS Loss -8.5Over 210.51.081.03-2
10/27 @DET109-89Win +62Covered -3.5Under 210.51.110.9-1
10/25 @OKC101-95Win +88Covered -1Under 2191.040.94-3
10/22 ORL90-93Loss -100ATS Loss -11.5Under 210.50.960.980
10/20 @NY103-101Win +20ATS Loss -9.5Under 210.51.071.01-3
10/19 @TOR101-113Loss -100ATS Loss +3Over 209.51.041.17+1
10/16 PHI105-87Win +47Covered -5Under 211.51.040.84-2