Indiana Pacers are Best Longshot Bet to Win Championship

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PLAYOFF FORECAST

It looked like Ricky Rubio was going to go to Indiana immediately after Darren Collison retired. Our projection for the Pacers dropped from 50 to 48 wins because Rubio cannot shoot. By getting Brogden (and Jeremy Lamb) instead they improved to nearly 51+ wins despite losing Thaddeus Young and not retaining Bogdanovic. They are a great long-shot value to win the Championship. They have a 67% chance of getting past the first round of the playoffs. They have a 36.2% chance of getting past round 2. Their chances of then winning the East is 19%. They have 7% chance of winning the championship.

REGULAR SEASON RECAP

The regular season went better than expected. They won 48 games vs an expected win total of 45.5. They exceeded expectations at home. They went 19-22 on the road and were expected to win 19.2. They won 29 at home and were expected to win 26.3.

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STATISTICAL STRENGTHS & WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (AVERAGE): Their true FG% is 55.8% (#13 in League). The team shooting has declined to 51.6% in their last 7 games. They average 108 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 108.1. On the road they average 107.3 (106.5 expected), and at home 108.7 ppg (109.8 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 54.9 true FG% (#7 in League). They allow 104.7 pts per game vs an expected value of 106.4. They are allowing 108.3 (107.7 expected) on the road, and at home 101 ppg (105.2 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 1 per game (#20 in league).

TURNOVERS (STRENGTH): Their average turnover margin is 1.7 per game (#3 in league).

TEAM STATS AND AGAINST THE SPREAD GAMELOG

Below is a recap of all 82 regular games. Anyone who backed the Pacers in all of their games would have earned a +414 unit profit at a 100 per game risk. Against the spread, they have lost -510 units risking 110 to win 100 (40-41 ATS). The Pacers have lost ATS on the road, but at home they have turned a profit.

Season RecapPPG-PAMoney LineATS RecordO/U RecordPts/PosPA/PosPos+/-
All Games108.0 - 104.748-34, +41440-41, -51035-47 57.3% Under1.121.09+0.56
On Road107.3 - 108.319-22, -66117-23, -83020-21 51.2% Under1.121.13+0.69
At Home108.7 - 101.029-12, +21723-18, +32015-26 63.4% Under1.131.06+0.44
4/10 @ATL135-134Win +197Covered +5.5Over 226.51.281.22-4
4/7 BKN96-108Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 2201.041.180
4/5 BOS97-117Loss -100ATS Loss +1Over 213.511.18-2
4/3 @DET108-89Win +120Covered +2.5Under 205.51.10.95+5
4/1 DET111-102Win +44Covered -5.5Over 203.51.21.11+1
3/30 ORL116-121Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Over 205.51.191.31+5
3/29 @BOS112-114Loss -100Covered +7Over 2131.191.18-2
3/27 @OKC99-107Loss -100ATS Loss +6.5Under 217.51.031.14+2
3/24 DEN124-88Win +105Covered +1.5Over 2101.30.9-2
3/21 @GS89-112Loss -100ATS Loss +10.5Under 218.50.911.150
3/19 @LAC109-115Loss -100ATS Loss +5.5Over 2191.11.150
3/18 @POR98-106Loss -100ATS Loss +4.5Under 2111.091.14-3
3/16 @DEN100-102Loss -100Covered +7Under 2141.131.160
3/14 OKC108-106Win +90Covered -1Under 2181.061.06+2
3/12 NY103-98Win +14ATS Loss -11Under 208.51.061.02+1
3/10 @PHI89-106Loss -100ATS Loss +6Under 217.50.921.1+1
3/7 @MIL98-117Loss -100ATS Loss +10Under 2230.991.22+2
3/5 CHI105-96Win +36Covered -6.5Under 2181.141.03-2
3/2 ORL112-117Loss -100ATS Loss -3Over 2091.221.25-2
2/28 MIN122-115Win +61Covered -3.5Over 221.51.261.22+3
2/27 @DAL101-110Loss -100ATS Loss -1Under 214.51.121.19-2
2/25 @DET109-113Loss -100ATS Loss +2.5Over 2111.191.22-1
2/23 @WAS119-112Win +93Covered +1Over 2271.21.14+1
2/22 NO126-111Win +44Covered -5Over 2231.231.06-3
2/13 MIL97-106Loss -100ATS Loss +4.5Under 2190.981.12+4
2/11 CHA99-90Win +44Covered -5.5Under 2151.171.060
2/9 CLE105-90Win +6Covered -14Under 210.51.21.04+1
2/7 LAC116-92Win +38Covered -6.5Under 2211.160.930
2/5 LAL136-94Win +120Covered +2.5Over 218.51.40.96-1
2/4 @NO109-107Win +62ATS Loss -3.5Under 2191.111.08-1
2/2 @MIA95-88Win +110Covered +2Under 2041.040.960
1/31 @ORL100-107Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Under 2081.031.14+3
1/30 @WAS89-107Loss -100ATS Loss +1Under 2180.961.2+4
1/28 GS100-132Loss -100ATS Loss +7Over 228.51.011.32-1
1/26 @MEM103-106Loss -100ATS Loss -5Over 202.51.071.15+3
1/23 TOR110-106Win +41ATS Loss -6.5Under 217.51.181.09-4
1/20 CHA120-95Win +28Covered -8Under 218.51.250.98-1
1/19 DAL111-99Win +30Covered -7.5Under 2151.211.080
1/17 PHI96-120Loss -100ATS Loss -3Under 224.50.981.26+3
1/15 PHO131-97Win +15Covered -10.5Over 218.51.240.9-2
1/11 @NY121-106Win +25Covered -8Over 2181.241.07-1
1/9 @BOS108-135Loss -100ATS Loss +7Over 2161.081.37+2
1/8 @CLE123-115Win +18ATS Loss -9.5Over 208.51.291.27+5
1/6 @TOR105-121Loss -100ATS Loss +1.5Over 213.51.041.27+5
1/4 @CHI119-116Win +33ATS Loss -7Over 2011.191.14-1
12/31 ATL116-108Win +11ATS Loss -12Over 2201.211.130
12/28 DET125-88Win +33Covered -7Over 206.51.270.90
12/26 @ATL129-121Win +36Covered -6.5Over 219.51.31.2-1
12/23 WAS105-89Win +15Covered -11Under 2191.060.90
12/21 @BKN114-106Win +72Covered -3Over 209.51.251.15-1
12/19 @TOR96-99Loss -100Covered +4.5Under 210.51.021.03-2
12/18 CLE91-92Loss -100ATS Loss -12Under 2070.971.01+2
12/16 NY110-99Win +11ATS Loss -11.5Under 216.51.161.02-1
12/14 @PHI113-101Win +130Covered +3Under 218.51.161.06+3
12/12 MIL113-97Win +110Covered +2Under 2191.161+1
12/10 WAS109-101Win +40Covered -6Under 216.51.121.01-3
12/8 SAC107-97Win +47Covered -5Under 222.51.11.04+4
12/7 @ORL112-90Win +126Covered +2.5Under 2051.180.94-1
12/4 CHI96-90Win +25ATS Loss -8Under 2111.010.92-3
12/1 @SAC110-111Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Under 2251.051.07+1
11/29 @LAL96-104Loss -100ATS Loss +5Under 2200.951.05+2
11/27 @PHO109-104Win +67Covered -2.5Under 216.51.161.13+2
11/26 @UTA121-88Win +170Covered +4.5Over 206.51.220.96+8
11/23 SA100-111Loss -100ATS Loss -1.5Over 20811.16+4
11/21 @CHA109-127Loss -100ATS Loss +3.5Over 215.51.191.380
11/19 UTA121-94Win +150Covered +4Over 2061.281.02+2
11/17 ATL97-89Win +14ATS Loss -11Under 2190.930.83-3
11/16 MIA99-91Win +45Covered -5Under 213.51.010.94+2
11/11 @HOU103-115Loss -100ATS Loss +2Over 2091.11.26+2
11/9 @MIA110-102Win +71Covered -2Over 2071.11-2
11/7 PHI94-100Loss -100ATS Loss -2.5Under 2160.951.03+3
11/5 HOU94-98Loss -100ATS Loss -1Under 2161.021.09+2
11/3 BOS102-101Win +140Covered +3.5Under 205.51.041.1+6
11/2 @CHI107-105Win +31ATS Loss -7Under 2131.151.14+1
10/31 @NY107-101Win +38ATS Push -6Under 208.51.171.08-2
10/29 POR93-103Loss -100ATS Loss -4Under 215.50.971.13+5
10/27 @CLE119-107Win +35Covered -6.5Over 215.51.291.18+2
10/24 @SA116-96Win +105Covered +1.5Over 210.51.271.06+1
10/22 @MIN91-101Loss -100ATS Loss +2Under 228.50.931.030
10/20 BKN132-112Win +26Covered -8Over 2141.351.09-5
10/19 @MIL101-118Loss -100ATS Loss +4Over 216.50.981.14-1
10/17 MEM111-83Win +34Covered -7.5Under 204.51.210.9-1