NBA Outlook: Golden State Warriors Will Be Contenders By Playoff Time

SEASON FORECASTS AND FUTURES PICKS

The Warriors are only projected to win 50 games with the injury to Klay Thompson, the losses of key veterans and the addition of new pieces like D'Angelo Russell. But come March 2020 they should be back on solid footing. Their odds to win it all are 12/1, 7.7% (#6). Their simulation based win percentage (7.4%) is not better than their odds implied probability but it would be if not for the juice on the lines. They are a good bet to win the West at 8/1, 11.1%. Their sim chance is 13.3%. The Warriors are averaging 50.3 wins per sim which makes them a decent bet to win over 49 games. At -550 the Warriors are a good value to make the playoffs with a 97.5% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 7/2, 22.2%. They win the division in 23.5% of simulations. Their average wins per simulation puts them at #3 in the West.

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REGULAR SEASON RECAP AND UPCOMING GAMES

Their 57-25 record last season failed to meet expectations. Their game-by-game odds projected record was 60.9-21.1. They were not good against the spread going 35-46-1 (-1560 loss). More of their games came in under (44) than went over (38). Their next game vs the Clippers should be close. The Warriors are winning 51 percent of computer simulations. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

OPPONENTSIM%H2H WLH2H ATSH2H OU
10/24 LAC51%7-35-56-4
10/27 OKC67%2-11-20-3
10/28 NO64%3-01-1-12-1
10/30 PHO72%3-12-21-3
11/1 SA59%1-21-21-2

TEAM STATISTICAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 59.5% (#1 in League). The team shooting has declined to 56.8% in their last 7 games. They average 117.7 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 118.1. On the road they average 117.2 (116.8 expected), and at home 118.1 ppg (119.3 expected).

DEFENSE (STRENGTH): They are an above average defensive team holding opponents to 55.2 true FG% (#11 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 57.9% in their last 7 games. They allow 111.2 pts per game vs an expected value of 110.1. They are allowing 110.9 (111.1 expected) on the road, and at home 111.5 ppg (109.1 expected).

REBOUNDING (STRENGTH): They are outrebounding opponents by 1.9 per game (#7 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -0.7 per game (#20 in league).

TEAM FANTASY LEADERS

The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Stephen Curry who is projected to be the #4 Guard. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

PLAYEROWN%RANKBETTER OPTIONBETTER THAN
Stephen Curry984Bradley BealDamian Lillard
D`Angelo Russell9814Kyle LowryJa Morant
Draymond Green9113Pascal SiakamDanilo Gallinari
Willie Cauley-Stein8321Mitchell RobinsonBrook Lopez
Kevon Looney628Tristan ThompsonZach Collins
Damion Lee095Carsen EdwardsTroy Brown
Alfonzo McKinnie0102Mfiondu KabengeleMike Scott
Omari Spellman6110Maximilian KleberGrant Williams
Alec Burks17108Damyean DotsonGerald Green
Eric Paschall0113Justin JacksonPJ Washington