NBA Outlook: LA Clippers Are #1 In the West with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George


With their massive move to get Kawhi and PG the Clippers are now #1 in the West with nearly 53 wins per simulation. This assumes Kawhi sits around 15 games as part of load management. If not for load management the Clippers would be a 57+ win team. Oddsmakers have the Clippers as the favorite to win the championship. They are not a good bet to win the championship. Their 15.8% chance is #1 in the league. In simulations, they win the West 24.1% of the time and are not a good value at 2/1, 33.3%. The Clippers are averaging 52.6 wins per sim so we recommend betting them to come under 54.5 wins. At -3000 the Clippers are a good value to make the playoffs with a 99.3% chance. Their odds of winning their division are 5/8, 61.5%. They win the division in 46.3% of simulations. Based on wins per simulation they are projected to have the best record in the West.

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Their 48-34 record last season was way ahead of what was expected of them. Their game-by-game odds gave them a projected record of 42.4-39.6. They were very good against the spread going 44-36-2 for (+440 profit). They went over 44 times and came in under 36 times. They are favored in their upcoming game vs the LA Lakers. The table below shows their upcoming games, their simulation based win percentage and their recent head to head record (WL, ATS, OU).

10/22 LAL53%2-22-22-2
10/24 GS49%3-75-56-4
10/26 PHO76%4-03-12-2
10/28 CHA84%2-02-02-0
10/30 UTA43%1-21-22-1


SHOOTING (STRENGTH): They are an elite shooting team with a true FG% of 57.6% (#4 in League). They average 115.1 pts per game vs an expected average (based on pre-game odds) of 113.8. On the road they average 112.4 (112.3 expected), and at home 117.9 ppg (115.2 expected).

DEFENSE (WEAKNESS): This is a below average defensive team allowing opponents to shoot 56.1 true FG% (#18 in League). Team defense is trending down allowing opponents to shoot 61.2% in their last 7 games. They allow 114.3 pts per game vs an expected value of 113.2. They are allowing 114 (114.5 expected) on the road, and at home 114.6 ppg (111.9 expected).

REBOUNDING (BELOW AVERAGE): They are slightly outrebounded by opponents by 0.7 per game (#19 in league).

TURNOVERS (BELOW AVERAGE): They have an average turnover margin of -1 per game (#21 in league).


The table below show the most valuable fantasy players on the team led by Paul George who is projected to be the #5 Forward. The Better Option column shows the player directly above him and the Better Than column shows the player directly below him in the projected position rankings.

Paul George985Luka DoncicBen Simmons
Kawhi Leonard9811LaMarcus AldridgePascal Siakam
Louis Williams9822Buddy HieldMalcolm Brogdon
Montrezl Harrell8715Myles TurnerJonas Valanciunas
Patrick Beverley3654Darius GarlandFred VanVleet
JaMychal Green1761Kevin KnoxJabari Parker
Landry Shamet2375George HillAustin Rivers
Ivica Zubac4031JaVale McGeeDwight Howard
Maurice Harkless1782Rodions KurucsJerami Grant
Mfiondu Kabengele0101Anthony TolliverAlfonzo McKinnie